This part is interesting:
> The SEC had crafted a settlement with Musk that it was preparing to file Thursday morning, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. Musk’s lawyers called SEC lawyers to say they were no longer interested in proceeding with the agreement, it said.
If his lawyers had a settlement lined up, and then retracted it, that means that they are confident they can win a better outcome in court. The deal they were going to cut did not involve Musk going to jail, so the outcome that Musk's expensive lawyers are betting on by retracting the settlement presumably also doesn't involve that.