Hacker News Reader

Comment by gonmf | Hacker News Reader

I think platforms like Facebook depend on being "cool" over some demographic. Then other demographics adopt it, time passes, other demographics grow tired of the same old Facebook look their parents also used, and Facebook starts to die. We've seen this as well with other social networks like hi5, myspace, that once dominated entire continents as the preferred social website. Of course they are smart and competent people so they will try to prevent it, and it seems to have lasted longer and left a bigger mark already, but still; I'm sure a lot of people around the world already share the sentiment of "not doing anything on FB", and just keeping it open for messenger chat.

View on HN

It is an anti-network effect. The early adaptors are cool, the late adaptors are not. In Facebook's case, the early adaptors are now old people posting photos of their children. The users aged to irrelevance.

There definitely was a big difference between MySpace and the other social networks. Facebook ran well and worked. People forget the total shit show MySpace was in the middle of 2008. The site ran terribly, was getting hammered by spammers, and they starting covering it in banner ads. We didn't see a repeat of those problems with Instagram or Snapchat.

There is a coolness factor. It isn't as defined as fashion, or the latest hot nightclub, but it is there. That alone won't be enough to make the "next" Facebook, but I think it is the foot that gets stuck in the door.

Facebook might be able to acquire the next challenger in the US, but they will definitely fail to get it by EU regulators.

They're both network effects. The difference is that the relative value per node, to other nodes has changed. Disaster hits when the high-value nodes leave.

Networks are driven by positive feedback both going up and down. This sounds good, but isn't: the system and balance points are inherently unstable. Nothing succeeds like success, or fails like failure.

Facebook adopters were never cool. It began as a place for uptight Ivy bratlings, then grew by being more square and "safer" than Myspace.

Nevertheless, your larger point holds, Facebook users are even less cool now than they were before.

This is why acquisitions such as IG and WhatsApp are crucial. If they purchase the next cool thing, they never really go out of fashion. FB has gone from throwing sheep at your friends to this. I don't think they are stopping anytime soon

> This is why acquisitions such as IG and WhatsApp are crucial. If they purchase the next cool thing, they never really go out of fashion. FB has gone from throwing sheep at your friends to this. I don't think they are stopping anytime soon

But it does mean that an even somewhat diligent antitrust enforcement could strangle them to death. They shouldn't be allowed to acquire their future competitors. If the US won't stop them, maybe European regulators can?

We have a hard time making them pay their taxes, I'm pretty sure we won't be able to regulate them anytime soon.

I see what you mean, but I'm under the impression that Facebook is not "your father's social network" in that it's not even comparable to what MySpace was, neither in numbers nor in qualities.

What I mean is that we are comparing two different beasts, so I'm not sure "it happened to MySpace" is a good telltale sign of what will eventually happen to Facebook.

Not to mention the growing number of people who only use a mobile phone as their gateway to internet services (along with all of the personal info to be gleaned from them) and who spend the vast majority of their time on the web using Facebook.

I've seen this a lot more in countries where internet access wasn't too common until the past 5-10 years and people didn't start out with a less centralized web before apps and closed networks gained popularity.

My partner isn't from the US originally and when I mention how obnoxious it is that Facebook is like the new AOL and I thought we were past this, she reminds me that it's all anyone back home uses for anything and they didn't have internet access back then.

To her and her friends/family back home, the internet basically is Facebook (and occasionally being forced to open their browser app to search for something if they don't just ask around on Facebook). A handful of other apps and defaults define the internet for them and anything else just sounds like too much hassle.

This is a very good point. In particular kids wouldn’t be caught dead on a network their parents (and other elderly relatives) are on.

I suspect Facebook knows this and will keep acquiring new platforms when they can.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com