CEO’s Plan to Save Sears Would Hand His Hedge Fund $1B
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
I will never forget reading this article (from 2011): https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204517204577042....
'While retail experts estimate that store chains traditionally spend $6 to $8 per square foot on annual maintenance, Sears is spending a fraction of that amount, said Matthew McGinley, managing director of International Strategy & Investment Group, an investor research firm.
"With roughly 250 million square feet domestically, [Sears] is spending about $1.90 a foot, which is a quarter of what you need to maintain share and keep it as an acceptable place to shop," Mr. McGinley said.'
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Nor will I forget reading about his management philosophy where different Sears departments have to compete for money in the budget. Money to advertise, to purchase inventory, etc. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-07-11/at-sears-...)
To the average "person on the street", it may be patently obvious that when your stores are filthy and understaffed, no one will want to shop there. To Eddie Lampert, the way to juice EBITDA for a few years is to slash that maintenance money.
Pour one out for the death of multiple iconic American brands (Craftsman, Kenmore, and eventually Sears itself). Don't shed a tear for Lampert, since he's set himself up for a "heads, investors, customers, and employees lose" and "tails, I win" situation.
I thought this was somewhat common.
Some highlights:
> "To boost “visibility and accountability,” Lampert explained in a letter to investors, he divided the company into more than 30 business units, including product-based divisions (apparel, tools, appliances), support functions (human resources, IT), brands (Kenmore appliances, Craftsman tools, DieHard batteries), and units focused on e-commerce and real estate. Under the new scheme, each business unit had its own president, chief marketing officer, board of directors, and, most important, its own profit-and-loss statement.
Large technology companies and industrial conglomerates such as General Electric also take a decentralized approach. But retailers tend to favor an integrated model. That way, different divisions can be compelled to make sacrifices, such as discounting goods, to attract shoppers to stores."
> "Former Sears executives say their biggest objection to Lampert’s model is that it discourages cooperation. “Organizations need a holistic strategy,” says Erik Rosenstrauch, former head of Sears’s DieHard unit, who is now CEO of Fuel Partnerships, a retail marketing agency. As the business unit leaders pursued individual profits, rivalries broke out. Former executives say they began to bring laptops with screen protectors to meetings so their colleagues couldn’t see what they were doing.
Appliance maker Kenmore is a widely recognized brand sold exclusively at Sears. Under SOAR, the appliances unit had to pay fees to the Kenmore unit. Because the appliances unit could make more money selling devices manufactured by outside brands, such as LG Electronics, it began giving Kenmore’s rivals more prominent placement in stores. A similar problem arose when Craftsman, Sears’s beloved tool brand, considered selling a tool with a battery made by DieHard, also owned by Sears. Craftsman didn’t want to pay extra royalties to DieHard, so the idea was quashed."
> "The bloodiest battles took place in the marketing meetings, where different units sent their CMOs to fight for space in the weekly circular. These sessions would often degenerate into screaming matches. Marketing chiefs would argue to the point of exhaustion. The result, former executives say, was a “Frankenstein” circular with incoherent product combinations (think screwdrivers being advertised next to lingerie)."
> "Eventually Lampert’s advisory committee instituted a bidding system, forcing the units to pay for space in the circular. This eliminated some of the infighting but created a new problem: The wealthier business units, such as appliances, could purchase more space. Two former business unit heads recall how, for the 2011 Mother’s Day circular, the sporting-goods unit purchased space on the cover for a product called a Doodle Bug minibike, popular with young boys."
> "In the weeks leading up to Black Friday in 2011, Sears discovered that some of its rivals planned to open on Thanksgiving at midnight. Sears executives knew they should open early, too, but couldn’t get all the business unit heads on board, according to former executives. (A Sears spokesman says the decision “was not contingent on the business unit structure.”) Instead, the stores opened early the following morning. One former vice president drove to the mall that night and watched families pack into rival stores. By the time Sears opened, he says, cars were leaving the parking lot."
I have personally not worked for a major retailer, but I have worked for a vendor to several major retail chains in North America.
It is certainly not the industry norm to have this kind of management and internal competition serve as a substitute for merchandising know-how. I think these quotes from the article speak for themselves.
"The team didn't execute. Oh well." While his decisions directly lead to ballooning costs (A couple years back I read how many units ended up with redundant accounting/HR/etc, sapping their budget for store presence), stores that feel lower rent than a rural flea market (the last time I was in a Sears it was a mess; this was in a major metro area), and the cheapest merch, that made Goodwill seem upscale.
Unsurprisingly, it loses out to a well-ran, centrally managed, autocratic command economy, that fosters competition between different teams, and also, by force, compels co-operation between different departments.
Competition has its place in a business, and that place is almost always exclusively sales. Trying to impose it upon other parts of an organization rarely ends well.
Meanwhile others will continue to pay the price for their delusional anti-social ideology.
At the same time, if you look at Sears's peers, most of them are still alive and kicking, if not thriving. E.g. Target, Wal-Mart, Macy's, Kohl's, JC Penney, Best Buy etc.
That seems like confirmation bias to me. I could write a much longer list of national retail chains gone out of business over the last decade and a half. Circuit City, Mervyn's, A&P, Borders, CompUSA, Toys R Us, Marshall Fields, the list goes on.
It's hard to find data from 2003 (when Lampert merged Sears and Kmart), but flip to page 3 of this PDF: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/7105653.pdf. All of those retailers except Sears are still healthy companies.
In regards to the examples you brought up, I think there are some questions about how comparable they are in terms of retail niche and scale. The Circuit City example I'll concede. They sold a lot of similar products as Sears.
-Mervyn's
From their wiki:
>Based on 2005 revenue, Mervyn's was the 83rd largest retailer in the United States.
It seems that Mervyn's is more of a regional chain? Not a national retailer.
-A&P
If this is the same east coast A&P that I know, this was a grocer. Doesn't really seem to be a peer of Sears.
-Marshall Fields
They were acquired by Macy's, not shuttered. Shareholders may have taken a haircut from the company's peak share price, but they weren't left with nothing. Sears trades at ~$1 as of today.
-Borders
If you mean Borders the specialty book seller, I don't really see how this is comparable to Sears.
-CompUSA
A specialty computer retailer, that to my memory did not even sell appliances? I don't see how they're a peer to Sears.
-Toys R Us
A specialty toy retailer vs a department store? I'd also note that there's been widespread debate about whether Toys R Us was done in by its debt-laden LBO (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-09/toys-r-us...). Also worth noting it has not been a public company since 2005.
Sears was unique as it was a legacy company who screwed up at every turn. The smart move for the shareholders would have been to spin out the business units and sell the valuable real estate.
Is that really a resurgence or just an attempt to profit by burning up the brand's remaining goodwill?
I can't imagine Craftsman tools maintaining their reputation after they've been been positioned as the cheaper alternative to store-brand tools for a while. They must be cutting massive corners to achieve that price-point.
that is a really scary idea.
Harbor Freight is one of the only consumer-oriented tool sellers that's constantly and regularly improving their product lines. There are enough stores that it's handy for most, and their warranty returns are really easy.
I'm getting tired of reading all the ill-informed Harbor Freight bashing. Frankly, they're at least at good as most tools in the consumer market at this point.
Oh, and their stuff is vastly higher quality than the mid-century, consumer-oriented, American-made junk that I inherited from my grandfathers. I keep that stuff around just as an example of how "American made" didn't necessarily mean quality.
Help?
Although, what's the point in offering a warranty that will outlive the company?
https://www.craftsman.com/customer-care/warranty-information
My main concern is that they're no longer made by Danaher and the quality has gone downhill since that change.
His ESL Hedge Fund has dropped 80% in value from its peak in 2006 to 2016, and has almost certainly fallen more since then.
https://www.businessinsider.com/sears-obsession-with-wall-st...
Am I mistaken in this?
Note: this is what Warren Buffett did several times, with massive leverage, to make his riches before he became the baby boomer conservative investment guru.
Sears just happens to be a household name that is getting a lot of discerning eyes on it.
this statement is kind of misleading because "value" means NAV, not actual losses. it could very well be that the fund neither made or lost money, but 80% of the investors pulled out.
When I go to a nearby Target, you can hardly move around all the shopping carts in there. The Kmart, which is a similar size, might only have a few customers in the store at a time. Maybe Target is slightly more upscale, but even the Walmart nearby looks much nicer, plus has a better selection and similar if not lower prices.
Unlike many other retail stores, it doesn't even feel like Kmart is trying to adapt. Bestbuy has it's superior customer service (not exactly world class, but better than competitors). T.J.Maxx/Homegoods has an ever-changing selection of bargains and the feeling of being in a treasure hunt. Even J.C. Penney tried a new transparent pricing scheme (which failed). But I haven't seen Kmart/Sears try to do something similar.
Edit: changed the store is run on a skeleton staff to the store is run with a skeleton staff
Sounds spooky to me! I bet they do good business around Halloween
The current “Sears Holdings” is, in fact, actually the result of Kmart buying the old Sears.
> Unlike many other retail stores, it doesn't even feel like Kmart is trying to adapt.
Ruthless cost cutting is an attempt to adapt. It's just a bad one, as actually executed by Sears/Kmart.
The place was almost completely empty of product. The shelves were bare, there was almost no racks to place things, and nobody was in the store to shop.
We both said to each other that there is not much time before it closes.
There is no reason to shop there since there is nothing there to buy.
I can name at least 5 department stores that I'd check before even thinking about Sears when it comes to clothing. It is simply not their specialty, and it's weird to expect the selection to be good there.
I will, however, echo your sentiment that the store looks very bare and very few customers. It looks closer to a warehouse than a retail location.
The latter makes some sense. Make departments compete for capital. Give capital to those with the best return.
This doesn’t change that in the today Sears is just a land grab for the hedge fund who owns most of it.
No other major retailer creates completely siloed divisions, each with its own C-suite of executives. No other major retailer throws common-sense merchandising tenets to the wind in service of some idea of a "free market" of ideas.
"Large technology companies and industrial conglomerates such as General Electric also take a decentralized approach. But retailers tend to favor an integrated model. That way, different divisions can be compelled to make sacrifices, such as discounting goods, to attract shoppers to stores."
Competition sounds great in theory. At Sears, Lampert divided the company into 30 units, each with its own profit and loss statement.
Space in the weekly circular was farmed out to the unit bidding the most, resulting in:
-Toys for boys being advertised on Mother's day, because that department bid the most for space in the circular
-Lingerie being featured next to tools.
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Because each unit had its own P&L, and its managers were compensated accordingly:
-One Sears tool brand choosing to use an external battery supplier, because it didn't want to pay royalties to a Sears division that made lithium-ion batteries
-Sears stores not opening early for Black Friday in 2011, despite all its peers doing so, because to do so required agreement among the 30 business unit heads
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It is perfectly reasonable for retail buyers to consider what mix of products to use, and whether to devote shelf space to external or house brands.
It is not reasonable for the instructive structure to be constructed in a way where the company loses customers and sales because each individual unit's decision makers have a financial incentive to do so.
No other major retailer operates/operated this way, and I'd wager that no one will try doing so in the future.
That will inevitable result in a race to convert corporate commons (brand goodwill) into short term gains. That kind of game will be won by making your peers lose faster.
These major retailers failing? They're engineered to fail by the parasite that is the financial industry that vacuums up money into its control.
It is no surprise that the CEO, who owns the hedge fund that will give him a pretty penny of a 1 Billion with B cashout, wants to axe the company his somehow CEO of, for his own profit. It would not surprise me if the hedge fund got to install him though owning enough of the company.
This is nothing but the modern reincarnation of Gordon Gekko. Greed is good. Only they've evolved their methods of extracting and consolidating wealth from the public since then.
The execution has changed (pun intended), but it's an old trick.
The liquidation strategy was a reaction to his plan failing as far as I'm aware. In the early years all the talk was on building a bigger conglomerate, possibly using Sears "super valuable" real estate to fuel it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2004-11-21/the-next-...
2. Invest in nostalgia brands like Craftsman, that can't be purchased on amazon, and come with a built in consumer base.
3. Use previously considerable resources to position yourself as the best place to shop for X product, and make sure that several brands of X product are only available through you.
4. Still probably fail, but at least it looks like you tried.
Craftsman 450-Piece Mechanic's Tool Set
https://www.amazon.com/Craftsman-450-Piece-Mechanics-Tool-Se...
If you want to spend money, DeWalt and Milwaukee are still the industry standards, and I think that reputation is deserved. I've had pretty much exclusively positive experiences with their performance and longevity.
One thing to remember is that a cheap drill with a good bit is often going to outperform a good drill with a cheap bit. So it is worth spending a little extra on that sort of things, particularly if you see yourself working with metal at all.
Also, get some type of Dremel or similar. One of the most useful tools when you don't really have the correct tool for the job.
Ryobi is what I used for the lighter stuff.
Reason I bought them is because I asked exact same question you are asking to a bunch of hardcore blue collar guys at the factory I worked at, and they recommended Makita.
The only one I don't love is the circular saw, but that's mainly because battery powered ones are just not as good as corded.
For power tools - Ryobi is fine for home use; the new Harbor Freight power tools have ok reviews. Dewalt and Milwaukee are better IMHO. Dewalt is assembling some of their power tools in the U.S. now. I have Ryobi, Dewalt, Ingersol Rand and Milwaukee cordless tools and battery systems. I personally prefer the Dewalt.
For hand tools, I have Snap-on, SK, Klein, Sunnex, Engineer, Craftsman, ChannelLock and some miscellaneous hand tools from other manufacturers. It really depends on what you want to do. I personally prefer tools made in U.S.A., Japan, and Taiwan in that order. But that is simply a personal preference.
Finally, keep in mind that no one company manufacturers all of their tools. A lot of tools are just rebranded and might be the same exact tool at considerably different prices.
Harbor Freight has some good stuff, their hand tools aren't bad and their air tools(esp. the earthquake impact guns) are good, but NEVER buy anything from that store that 1) has a battery 2) is a consumable (sandpaper, saw blades, etc.) 3) you will absolutely depend on professionally (so like craftsman, if you absolutely need then buy 2 and rotate through them.
Bosch, Hilti and Makita. I have a Hilti power drill that is literally older than me, the thing belonged to my grandpa and is still drilling on.
The first lot arrived at the store in a brown cardboard box from china and about half the sockets were missing. Returned it, complained, ordered another set, same issue.
Their customer service was shocking throughout.
I'd recommend buying an old set of Craftsman on Craigslist - or if you're lucky and find snap-on or Mac at a good price grab them. Otherwise I hate to write it but Harborfreight tools are mostly pretty much on par with Craftsman these days...
https://www.harborfreight.com/301-Pc-Mechanics-Tool-Set-6346...
They were the lazer cut Craftsman sockets with the bigger type on them which I like as you can see the size while grovelling around in the dark under cars, or at least sockets made with the same format. I still have 20 bucks of sears consolation money to spend online due to this debacle but it's hard to know how to spend it...
Now if I'm looking at craftsman, I'm either going to an estate sale to buy older items, or I'm going to harbor freight for a disposable.
There doesn't seem to be a company to fill that home hobbyist niche anymore.
The business model appears to be to sell reasonable quality tools and nail consumers with low quality consumables.
I avoid HF if I can but their new line of welders is getting rave reviews at a 1/4 the price of the American brands.
At this point, I would buy HF over Crapsman.
I now have a woodshop full of HF clamps that carry a better warranty than bessey and work just as well. I also have the HF wood lathe that is super cheap for the quality.
The chrome and stamping on the sockets is every bit as good as my ~2000 era Craftsman sockets, and far better than the last Craftsman tool I bought around '07.
Plus, Gearwrench is not american made, it is Taiwanese. Good tools, but your statement is factually incorrect.
I think that's just ambiguous wording. Try parsing it like this:
> I'd suggest ((Gearwrench) or (Tekton, Wright or Williams (same manufacturer as Snap On) if you want American made.))
Gearwrench, Tekton and some Williams wrenches: Asia-made, reasonably priced, more than adequate for hobbyist use.
Wright and some Williams wrenches: US-made, more expensive but cheaper and more available than Snap-on, marketed towards industrial applications instead of professional mechanics.
I'm sure they don't measure up to Craftsman of fifty years ago, but neither does Craftsman.
"Right, I'm smart enough to realize that Amazon will crush us, and I can't outsmart Bezos, so why not enrich myself, say fuck the world, and go retire with a cool billion?"
It's pretty hard to ride all the business trends correctly for over 100 years so I forgive Sears for missing out on the internet.
They had the better part of 20 years to adjust to the new reality but just kept plugging along with dirty, inefficient retail stores poorly stocked and staffed.
How could the same company that sold mail order houses a 100 years ago look at selling over the internet in the late 1990's and say "nah, it will never work - it's just too crazy"?
The Sears homes are pretty neat though. I live in a region where they were very popular.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the main market seems to be immigrants, poor credit history makes a traditional mortgage unattainable.
My uninformed guess is that it won't be widely adopted until the various pre-fab companies with competing strategies and designs work toward some sort of standardization such that knowledge and skills can readily transfer. I bet it's also a patent minefield, precluding standardization and commoditization.
Perhaps some large homebuilder will acquire one of the pre-fab companies and then we'll start to see some volume. Maybe San Francisco should acquire one and just begin building a ton of cheap apartment buildings....
https://www.collectorsweekly.com/articles/demolishing-the-ca...
In particular, the article mentions Richmond Specials, which are "generic boxy buildings" that are designed to "maximize the size limits on each lot." Sounds kind of like what pre-fabbed apartments might turn out like, right? Unfortunately, they appear to be widely loathed.
I think the so-called Richmond Specials (there are at least 2 on my block--I didn't know the name until reading that article but recognize them everywhere) have aged enough that they've become part of the accepted architectural landscape.
Anything new will be hated by people. But why spend a fortune to be hated when you could spend much less and be hated all the same. San Francisco requires almost every building to prominently incorporate bay windows as part of the facade. (Richmond Specials lack this, which is why they stand out.) Every era of housing does this differently. As long as the pre-fab does it at least as well (very low bar), they'd fit right in. Plus, stucco is an extremely common street-facing exterior finish, and all the pre-fab stuff seems to have similarly textured exteriors.
I'm no architect, but I think if you can mimic the Edwardian or Spanish Revival styles (which are already quite simplified and boxy) which dominate much of the city you can grease the wheels. I don't understand why architects expend so much effort trying to do anything else; all it does is invite more attention.
Few outside leaders have the credibility to risk seismic changes to a business model for an established company.
It happens, but it’s a lot less common.
Being able to get the DVD extras, and director's cut editions of movies, as a huge advantage of physical discs. And of course the huge, one stop, selection. I currently have 2 VOD subscriptions and often still have to pay extra for quality movie rentals.
Toys r us it's another company that was well positioned to dominate but never took advantage of their competitive advantage
The private equity bought it out, gutted it, then left the husk to die.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/a rchive/2018/07/toys-r-us-bankruptcy-private-equity/561758/
If you are looking for an example of maliciously planned LBO, look up Dick Smith Electronics.
Walmart being the exception having bought jet.com (?). After all Amazon is making the majority of its profits from AWS.
so why is the stock price not closer to zero? why isn't everybody shorting it?
I feel bad for the employees of Sears...but i'm also selfishly worried that the US Government ("we") ends up having to pay out absurd pension schemes with absurd 7% annual return assumptions.
Meanwhile us on 401k investments has no such guarantees and republicans are trying to gut the social security system which we put sizable money into.
See Pension Protection Act of 2006:
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/economic-policy/cor...
But 130% would be absurd in that it can't happen, but 7% is within the realm of possibility. So, unacceptably optimistic or unlikely etc sure but the bar for absurd is higher than just unusual.
Stick the money in the s&p 500 and it will easily get 7%. (The real number over the last 100 years is 9.7%). Having the number br 2.7% lower then that is a fair compromise to take into account risk.
There’s plenty of research on choosing discount rates for defined benefit pensions and annuities, and many papers to read. And there are myriad reasons you can’t just stick the money for a pension in the s&p 500, but suffice to say, everhone in finance sticks to the IFRS numbers and knows US GAAP is garbage.
You can pick the DOW if you like, as it has similar returns over the last hundred years.
Although, FYI, the 9.7% number I was using was not inflation adjusted. Perhaps that 7% number was inflation adjusted? That would make sense as the s&p inflation adjusted number comes out to be 7% almost exactly.
This is not survivorship bias, as the way investing in the s&p 500 works is that it is a moving list of the top 500 companies market cap.
IE, if a company goes down in price, and drops out of the top 500 companies, then so would your investment in it. And total returns take this into account.
It is perfectly possible to simply invest in the market, and recieve market returns, if you are also willing to accept market risks.
The stuff you are talking about, regarding risks, only matters to people who care about short term returns, not people who care about long term returns.
And a pension fund, which has a time horizon of decades, seems like the very best example of a fund that would not care the slightly about short term risk, and can instead optimize for long term returns.
https://www.quora.com/Why-dont-pension-funds-university-endo...
Diversification is also a relative term. Compared to owning a single stock the sp500 is more diversified.
A pension fund has ongoing annual liabilities, so they cannot invest a majority of their assets into the stock market because they cannot afford to suddenly lose 40% of their assets. That is why they are usually spread across asset classes and have a lot in corporate debt (which are providing more than US Gov debt, but have higher returns are almost never suddenly lose 30% or 40% value across the board.)
IIRC There was one in a red state that was left from some private company that the Feds promised to bail out but even when Obama proposed it get bailed out other GOP members refused. I don't know if they can get very far with Sears if politicians are out there won't even help constituents... let alone Sears.
Sorry I forget the name of the company associated with that pension.
Granted the Gov will pay.... just via social services and such.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pension_Benefit_Guaranty_Corpo...
[0]https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/sears-canada-pension-retire...
That's ok though. If it's a TOS violation to read the article without giving my info to their 23 trackers and 6 intrusive advertisements I'm all set anyway.
Happens to Pocket for me all the time.
It was also incredibly hard for me to sit there and watch a company I fondly remembered visiting with my father to pick up some tools (back when it was run much, much better) have such minimal vision for their eCommerce + little leverage at the table.
Feels really bad for the employees.
With so many incredibly gifted and hungry tech rockstars just searching for just one lucky break out there, how on Earth is it that all these clueless individuals continuously get to run major tech initiatives at major companies?
I dunno, it was also really weird to have tech people show up to a large tech company’s office in full suits during the summer. Felt really out of touch honestly.
The poster inherited about $100,000 and their parent, controlling the money, invested it in SHLD in March 2015 (circa $40/share). I've always wondered whether that person managed to get the money out (in 2017 at $8/share) or whether it's still there now (at $1/share).
I would be dejected.
I hope investors are taking ESL's management of Sears into account when deciding if it's a hedge fund they will continue to support. There's risk, and then there's incompetence...
(Source: I'm a former bankruptcy lawyer)
With a share price that low, they should announce a pivot to cryptocurrency and drop an ICO, lol.