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Comment by dalbasal | Hacker News Reader

"Germany, France, Britain, China and Russia to create special financial infrastructure to work with Iran"

hmmm... There's a story here about Iran-US, a story about the "western coalition," a story about the dollar's special status (maybe). There's also a story about this "special financial infrastructure/ vehicle."

WTF is that infrastructure? Why are Germany, France & Britain and keen on this? These thing can (often) have ulterior motives or outcomes. Other than trading in other currencies, what does this do?

On the diplomatic "story" this really demonstrates the new multipolar world, once you step out of the military realm and into an economic one. China, the EU & the US are similar size/strength. No stable teams...

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It's a very coherent piece IMHO, just assumes some context knowledge from its readership. About what this does, may I suggest you please look up "exorbitant privilege"? About a new multipolar world I differ: the world is very much unipolar now, the petrodollar got defended tooth and nail. There is no such thing as a separate military realm, it's all about power, soft or hard as required to extract tribute.

Well the UK is about to leave the team, without it the EU is significantly weaker...

Or perhaps significantly stronger. The UK was historically the naysayer of the EU, opposing more integration. Now the strongest Economies are Germany and France which are both very much in favor of a closer EU. If this leads to the EU being quicker in decision making and pooling more of their resources it could mean a big boon to the EU.

On the other hand the UK used to be kind of a watchdog of the EU so that role might have to be filled by either someone else or one can hope that the EU politicians will have enough pressure from their own countries.

Lastly even though the UK is in the process of leaving, basically all the politicians responsible for it have either back paddled or just quit. The UK might yet fall back into the fold, only this time without their special status.

Given the unpopularity and utter ineptitude of the UK's brexit "negotiations" I'm tempted to say might be in the process of leaving.

They're making such a mess, I would not be the least surprised to see the DUP withdraw support and a surprise election result. The Labour conference seems to be moving them towards a second referendum.

18 months ago I thought claims "it might not happen" foolish, now I'm starting to think it might not happen. :)

They are in the process of leaving. They activated article 50, which automatically starts a process of departure lasting 24 months. This period can only be prolonged by unanimity vote, I'm not even sure it can be cancelled. Concerning the prolongation, not going to happen.

Also there's no way the rest of EU is going to accept for UK to stay in the EU with the same privileges as previously (non use of euro, tax exemptions...). Especially since UK was one of the most critical members, now EU has more incentive to move forward.

Personally I can't see how UK can rejoin the EU without applying from scratch like Serbia and so on.

No way to one of the largest net contributors of the EU budget? I wouldn't take that bet. Sure things in politics have a way of biting back.

It's vanishingly unlikely in the time remaining, but I would not be surprised to see huge amounts of flexibility magically appearing, if the UK somehow gained a different administration supporting remain or a second referendum. Even at this stage.

Honestly, given how the negoctiations led by Michel Barnier on the EU side has been openly skeptical towards Brexit negociations, I doubt it.

I'm not even sure it can be cancelled.

Both Junker and Tusk have repeatedly stated that they'd be happy to cancel the Article 50 negotiations at any time and let the UK stay in the EU under its current terms.

Yes but given that prolongations must be voted by unanimity, wouldn't be logical that cancellation should be, too? I really don't know if that would be attainable.

The only thing Europe has going for it is the size of its economy, and Europe is about to lose almost 16% of it. For comparison, that's a larger decrease than California leaving the United States economy. That's before we talk about how how the UK was their biggest cultural driver and had one of the strongest (maybe the strongest) militaries.

The EU will not be stronger after the UK leaves.

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