The EU chosing Iran over the US?!
That is not what is going to happen over the reopened Iran deal. What is going to happen is that the EU will fall in line and Iran will be forced to withdraw its activities in Syria, Iraq, Yemen ... due to the severity of the economic hardship caused by the sanctions.
So either the EU decides to submit to the US or decides to grow a spine. It appears it's the latter. Too bad for the US.
I like that, but the English word is "kowtow", borrowed from Chinese.
Politically though, it's very interesting, right? But I hope that we are not discussing that sort of politics here on HN because it rarely produces a good discussion.
Large internationals will stop dealing with Iran, some small businesses with no US market will continue. And the set of companies is not static. We all have to earn a living. If you don't want to import Iranian pistachios anymore, someone else will.
Which is why the sanctioneers are so obsessed with shutting down SWIFT, and angry at the proposed vehicle. Because unless it's prohibitively costly to exchange money with Iran, someone will do it.
Iran is going to sit still for a while. They will navigate the waters as best they can, which may include showing some restraint at times, but things have to get much much worse economically before you see the total withdrawal you are predicting.
Assuming their internal situation stabilizes, which is not an unreasonable assumption at this point, Iran will at some point in the future declare that they do not consider themselves bound to the deal anymore, while emphasizing again that they do not seek a nuke and never have, and without initially escalating. They will then rebuild their nuclear infrastructure in steps and initially in secret whenever, trying to limit then fallout, as they have done before.
This seems like a very good way for the Europeans to learn how much of the international financial system relies on American goodwill to work as planned.
If France was the dominant world power we would be transacting in euros or francs and they would get to decide who was in the club. Until then ...
As if world power had something to do with technicalities, IT-systems, which currency to transact in.
Sorry guys. This is not how the world works.
The USD is dominant currency not because of the lack of alternatives.
The USD is the dominant currency because USA is the dominant military power by an order of magnitude.
As long as that is the case it means the EU can get only token independence. Ultimately if the US says no - you cannot deal with Iran. Then that is the way it is.
Does it mean that the EU is going to be nuclear bombed by the US? Of course not. It is much cheaper to go: One of your banks. It is not allowed to trade in USD anymore.
>The USD is the dominant currency because USA is the dominant military power by an order of magnitude.
Wrong. The USD was dominant currency because USA was the only major country untouched by WW2. Every other major country had it's infrastructure bombed and shattered. It is the dominant currency today because everyone is lazy to change the status quo as long it is working.
If USA upsets the status quo it will be replaced. Just ask your cousins across the Atlantic how that works.
P.S. your armed superiority is a joke. You were unable to defeat a bunch of untrained rice farmers. Your only armed victories in the last 50 years were against civilian militias. Any serious war with the standing armies of Russia, China or India will get you creamed. The only reason you are tolerated is because no one wants to be the one to start a war.
Spain? Portugal? Brasil? Australia?
> your armed superiority is a joke.
Ah, comrade, I understood now. Check the score of recent clash with your "Wagner" mercs. How many US lost? Yes, zero.