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To be clear, I 100% support keybase, and if I thought there was a chance in hell of getting some other non-tech person to use it, I would put in the effort.

I just don’t see myself being able to convince some recruiter, or HR person or something to sign up and install keybase just to get a file from me

Sounds like what Telegram Passport is trying to do.

https://telegram.org/blog/passport

Its a much bigger stretch to have companies change the underlying method of verification instead of the method of transport though ...

I've thought about this problem, specially in LATAM countries were gov agencies are still ages behind in terms of security/compliance and sharing these type of documents. There is definitely a need for this.

I'd be more worried about where they store that passport picture instead of how it gets there.