How Seattle blew its chance at a subway system (2016)
features.crosscut.com
features.crosscut.com
It's sad but it seems to me contemporary Americans don't want to pay for something that they will only reap the benefits of in later decades
There's so much in that style of thinking. The irony of depending on roads built decades ago. The debt system conditioning people to expect to "get it now, pay it later". The hypocrisy in "investing" 10k-100k in an education but not a few measly percent in taxes
Now, though, I really feel it's almost too late for rail in Austin, with our enormous growth from that time making any sort of land acquisition crazy expensive. The $1 billion+ plus proposal from 2014 mentioned in that linked article was also voted down, but it was phenomenally expensive and didn't actually go where it would do much good - a lot of people saw it as a giveaway for investors who had purchased land along the route.
So yeah, I feel we blew our chance, too, and now I feel our main hope is, if not fully self-driving cars, at least networkable cars that could make much better use of the available road space.
If eminent domain weren't an expensive PITA then it would be abused.
The project got stomped by NIMBY complaints by Old Louisville residents (neighborhood between Downtown and most of those other destinations; and dumb because that OG suburb was built on the backs of once important trolley lines to/from Downtown), and internecine battles with the Commonwealth legislature and KIPDA the "regional transit oversight authority".
(KIPDA seems to have no real authority other than conservatively shutting down TARC projects because it's too much work to actually collaborate with Southern Indiana and neither state understands the benefits of actually enhancing transit in the region because of a sort of cold war between the two, despite the shared interests in the region. But I'm ranting…)
Anyway, fast forward 15 years after the project was cancelled and the region is losing a battle with Nashville and Indianopolis for major regional business conventions (which is probably the biggest money fight between the cities). Louisville has the conference space and hotel inventory space to stay extremely competitive, _except_ that it's spread out across the central corridor: the Downtown Convention Center is "small", but well appointed and surrounded by hotel space; the Fairgrounds is huge with tons of space, and some more hotels, and relatively convenient to the airport. Getting between the two takes about 15/20 minutes in light traffic. The proposed LRT could probably have done it in about the same with proposed stops, if not faster.
The kicker is, though, that the one convention actually trying to utilize all that space in the same convention, manages to nearly grid lock the entire core corridor for the entirety of the convention. What's a 15/20 minute drive most days becomes an hour and a half crawl.
The foresight was there to build LRT before it was needed. It's just stupid that project was killed for political reasons. Now it's incredibly needed and even tougher to get political traction to actually build it.
The appetite for large-scale transit outside highway lanes in America is downright depressing. I'm still under the influence of a recent trip to Japan, and a trip before that to Germany, while reading about high-speed trains in China, and essentially the rest of the world is not only willing to fully invest in smart rail tech for their cities, but they are willing to go the whole way with high-speed rail, too. Cargo trains and the car industry controls too much!
It isn't always construction concerns that dictate why we make the decisions we do.
That said, I have been on the HSR systems in Germany and eastern China and, yes, they are beautiful and I wish we had one in Puget Sound.
Light rail and HSR are completely different things though. Also, the area lacks much density on its outside for HSR to go anywhere, maybe Portland with a stop in Vancouver and Tacoma?
The only issues with this is I can see a lot of complaints about rising property values in the more rural parts of the Sound, but you've got to start making adaptations for the influx of people at some point, right?
I rarely have it stop anywhere on Rainier, but when it does it takes so long for something that already takes forever. I live south of Seattle and it takes me 45 minutes to get home on the light rail where a bus will take 20 -- unfortunately the bus I need doesn't run on weekends so I have to take the light rail.
"Can't find jobs!". Well, often it's more "Can't get to the jobs you could do". Public transit!
"Need to do more for disabled people!". Public transit! (assuming its built with accessibility in mind).
"Need more affordable housing!". Public transit! Further apartments are now viable again (need a lot of public transit though, otherwise all you did is massively gentrify an area and kick the poors out).
"Too much traffic!". Ok, you get the drift.
Yeah, it's expensive as hell to build...except for the benefits, its probably cheaper than everything else you can do. And even if its not...the benefits are just that significant.
If you look at how people use transit, it skews toward lower-income people [1]. High-income people like the lawyers and government officials you mention use it a lot too, but not as often.
If you want to pick on a failing transit system, pick on VTA in Silicon Valley, not the D.C. Metro.
[1]: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/07/who-relies-o...
[1]:https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/transit_...
That's got to be talking about mean personal income of riders, right?
I just looked up some stats for DC. I started with the numbers from here:
https://censusreporter.org/profiles/16000US1150000-washingto...
And also made some conversions between personal&household stats, by estimating that 16% of people in DC are under 15 and thus not counted in per-capita income, together with the average household size being 2.3. Altogether, in DC:
Median per-capita income: $42k
Mean per-capita income: $52k
Median household income: $82k
Mean household income: $100k
I'm really surpised that the average income of riders is around $100k. That hasn't been my perception with other public transport.Pulling up some random stations shows that the median income at most BART stations is $50k-$75k, which is right what I would expect. Even at the downtown/FiDi ones like Embarcadero and Montgomery, it's just a bit above $75k. Median income in SF is about $95k, so BART ridership skews less wealthy than the area as a whole.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_countie...
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/richest-counties-in-the-...
Great way to take the mass transit system out of the reach of the poor.
Nobody is getting a free ride except if we continue to disproportionately fund the road system at the expense of denser forms of transportation.
That’s about $1,500 per commuter. Note that is an overestimate, because it ignores the commercial uses of roads (package delivery, ambulances, etc). Also it ignores bus riders, who make up most of the 7 million or so transit riders.
State and local sources spend $1.8 billion on WMATA each year. There are about 600,000 linked trips per day, so at most 300,000 commuters. That’s $6,000 per commuter.
(Note both numbers above exclude federal spending, but Metro is heavily subsidized by federal dollars.)
If you're going to make a case for private cars vs WMATA, there is a wider scope of things to evaluate than just operating cost.
Every single parking spot at any transit center in and around Seattle is full by 7AM. There was a new one built south of the airport at Angle Lake Station with something like 1000-1500 parking spots and you can't find anything past 7-8AM.
DC would not be DC without the WMATA. And those WMATA trips from the burbs into DC can't be replaced with car trips or bus trips.
Also, the bus serves much lower income people than rail--I'm okay with it receiving subsidies.
[1]: https://www.wmata.com/about/records/public_docs/upload/FY201...
Once you include those in your calculations, then $6000 per commuter is a drop in the bucket, and probably saved money rather than spent.
If the 600k daily rides weren’t taken on the train, how much more would we have to spend maintaining roads due to the higher traffic levels?
Road damage rises steeply with axle weight, and is estimated "as a rule of thumb... for reasonably strong pavement surfaces" to be proportional to the fourth power of the axle weight. This means that doubling the axle weight will increase road damage (2x2x2x2)=16 times. For this reason trucks with a high axle weight are heavily taxed in most countries.
For a more concrete example, compare a Honda Civic (about 3000 lbs including passengers) and a bike + rider (call it 250 lbs). The ratio of road damage is 3000^4 / 250^4.
The car does over 20,000x as much damage to the road. And heavy trucks are much much worse, hence the taxes that wikipedia mentions.
I've heard people complain that bikes don't pay gas taxes to fund road work. While that may be true of new construction, nobody's ever repaved a road because too many bikes rode on it. And if we're talking about taxing bike riders to pay for new construction, how about we spend it on separated bike paths instead of dumping it into more roads for cars? No bike rider wants to be sharing the road with you, it's just the only option in most places.
Remove semi trucks from the road and total budget for road repairs drops slightly but far less than your analysis suggests.
Walking over uneven surfaces is much more comfortable than using a wheeled vehicle, so long as those surfaces are flat. Everyone will bitch and moan about a road that's in rough shape. Nobody really cares if it's a sidewalk (sucks for the disabled though).
I've seen sidewalks get replaced due to age but I don't live in CA where it's 70 degrees year round.
Subway system looks expensive largely because it pays for everything under one umbrella.
Think about how much space along the route is reserved for the typical train commuter versus the amount of space reserved for car commuters. The train commuter has the rail corridor, train stations, bus, bus lanes, etc. all reserved for their use. But the car commuter has the entirety of the roadway, all parking spaces, parking garages, etc. reserved for their use. Drivers are cheaper because they are way more spread out, and if you required the same density for both forms of transit driving would be far more expensive than train travel.
Edit: Additionally, the road right-of-way was purchased and built at the time all of the structures were built. This lead to dramatically cheaper land values than when trains are being retrofitted into existing cities.
The real question is whether you value density or whether you're willing to require that the people in your city sprawl all over the countryside. I don't have a pat answer for that because it's a matter of values, but I do believe that we've gone too far in the direction of sprawl and that a sizeable portion of my home city wants to live closer together with easier access to commercial districts, and we would like to do that without needing a car to get around.
I think that letting us do that benefits everyone because we're basically asking you if we can take up less space in exchange for some taxes. And I don't think it's an unreasonable trade for most people.
Well that's not saying much. The US highways aren't in optimal condition.
Imagine if you were the government of NYC (also sub-100% farebox recovery) and someone offered to remove the subway system for free. No more losing money to subsidize it! Would you take that offer? No, that would be insane.
https://www.bidnet.com/resources/business-insights/us-govern...
If you required transportation infrastructure to all make profit nothing would ever get built.
Taxes is how the govt makes money so it’s in their interest to make its citizens wealthier by making it easy for them to move around and do businessy and worky tings.
It is possible for a transit system to not be worthwhile, but "Do I user it? and "Does it pay for itself?" are inadequate to determine that.
"Expanding mass transit isn't just a good idea, it's a necessity," Holland said. "My drive to work is unbelievable. I spend more than two hours stuck in 12 lanes of traffic. It's about time somebody did something to get some of these other cars off the road."
https://www.theonion.com/report-98-percent-of-u-s-commuters-...
Increasing throughput doesn't prevent you from being able to max out the system at peak usage times (rush hour), it just means that the rush hour traffic doesn't last as long.
I live in Anne Arundel. Folks here are now footing the bill for WMATA thanks to the Maryland funding commitment. Metro is doing nothing to reduce congestion anywhere around here (there is no Metro station in the county).
People that would (without Metro) have no way of getting from MARC to their DC jobs would disagree with you that Metro it doesn't reduce congestion on 295 and other congested roads that pass through Anne Arundel.
2,000 would be 2%. That's in the range of a traffic change (1% - 5%) that would degrade the Level of Service of a highway from D (design goal) to E or F.
It doesn't take much of a reduction in traffic to significantly improve free-flow. Or, conversely, it doesn't take much an increase in numbers to make traffic suck more than it already does.
You could probably say the same thing for >90% of all public roads in, say, California. Why would I need CA route 253, to pick a random example? I've been to Northern California exactly once, and I didn't need the road then.
It transformed a dying, dangerous city into the one we have now.
There is no subsidy that isn't comparable to roads or bridges.
I don't own a car, yet my taxes go to highways, because they are essential infrastructure.
https://usa.streetsblog.org/2015/10/12/heres-what-a-billion-...
What a ridiculous assertion. Northern Virginia subsidizes transportation spending for the entire rest of the state, not the other way around.
Almost any specific route for any type of transit is going to be used by a small percentage of the overall population. That's pretty obviously true, because most people live somewhere else for any given route.
Directly at least; Which is sad that we can have such short sighted vision.
As a poster posts above; public transit in a lot of way makes your city more viable;
1) Less Traffic, a single digit % of cars off of the road decreases traffic much more significantly (for the remaining 95%)
2) Better equality in housing, jobs. People to actually make your food and clean your wares can actually get to their jobs
3) Better for the disabled
4) Better for liabilities, death, and stress.
The priorities are often out of balance. Surface light rail can be a massive improvement over buses on shared roads, a huge increase in transportation capacity over buses, and can be built for a fraction of the cost of subways, allowing us to serve more people with the same amount of investment. Meaning instead of serving 10% of the population with the best quality transit, we could be serving 50% of the population with slightly slower service. And when the time comes that a tunnel would improve capacity and service, you have 50% of the population voting yes because it's in their best interest instead of hoping and praying that enough people are willing to benevolently pay huge increases in taxes for something they'll rarely use.
I happen to live in Seattle suburbs, about as far away east from it as possible actually while still technically being in Seattle metro area. So all this stuff is not going to be of any immediate benefit... but I still think that it should be done. The area keeps growing rapidly, and I don't see that stopping anytime soon.
Unfair taxes? Well, people in Seattle pay taxes that ultimately pay for the road to my house. I pay for their roads too, sure - but one road in Seattle services a great deal more people than one road out here in unincorporated King County, so all in all, I still get more out of that arrangement than they do. But I don't hear them complaining. In a polity, common good doesn't have to mean that everyone derives equal value from it, or even that everyone derives non-zero value. Sometimes you help your neighbors, sometimes they help you. In the end, long-term, you're both better off.
You can't move people around if your subway doesn't go anywhere because it costs too much to build it out completely.
Take the Calgary CTrain vs Seattle's Link. Link was monumentally more expensive than the CTrain (we built a 2 mile tunnel for about the same cost as their entire system). Calgary built more miles, but at grade. Seattle built fewer miles, mostly subway. Calgary has 314k daily riders, Seattle has 80k. Seattle's system has a higher average speed, but services a fraction of the population because the system is so short. Calgary, on the other hand, has ridership so high that building a tunnel to increase capacity in downtown corridors has an ROI so obvious that they didn't even have to ask taxpayers for more taxes because it payed for itself.
I too voted for ST3 despite not getting any direct benefit from it. But by building a system that prioritizes speed over coverage, ST3 relied on the benevolence of taxpayers to get it passed. Luckily there are enough people willing to shoulder that burden in Seattle, but not every city has the liberal culture of Seattle, and even then it undoubtedly would have been much easier for it to pass if it had a much higher proportion of the population covered.
Let's just imagine that I'm a (entirely too common) taxpayer who only votes to pay for things that I directly benefit from. Would it be easier to persuade me to vote for a system where I save 20 minutes on my commute, or a system where someone else saves 25 minutes on their commute?
Angelenos have realized this for some time now, and the region is correspondingly investing more in transit than anywhere else in the country by a significant margin. They literally have no other options: the 405, for example, is the most congested freeway in the country, and there is no room to widen it anymore. It's an easy sell to taxpayers when congestion has that much of an impact on quality of life.
London has a bus route that runs one bus per minute in peak times. Because London's streets are busy this means you will usually be able to see _several_ of the buses on that route on a street you're on that's served by that bus, and choose whether you'd prefer to walk to the closest stop, or walk in the direction of your bus and catch an "earlier" bus that is further in that direction already.
One per minute is actually a _higher_ rate than is achievable by London's automated and semi-automated underground railways, none of which even aim for more than 38 trains per hour in peak.
Now, of course S-series underground trains carry about a thousand people, whereas a London double decker bus maybe carries 150 (both would be crammed in this scenario but that's not an infrequent occurrence for peak hours), so the trains on a core route are moving about 35-40 thousand people per hour while these buses move less than 10 thousand, but for you as an individual the buses are more frequent, not to mention they're right there in the street, not at the bottom of a shaft somewhere.
It's a deliberate ignorance of opportunity costs, often advocated by those who primarily benefit from an alternative. For example, I can predict whether someone prefers a tall bridge or subterranean crossing versus a much cheaper drawbridge over the ship canal in Ballard, merely by knowing if they live in Ballard or not.
I think it is really fallacious thinking when saying something would have been cheaper to build X years ago. Ya, the right aways would have been easier, but the cheaper tech would have needed to be upgraded and/or maintained. Investing heavily in a rail system right before the huge Boeing bust of the seventies could have ended up pretty badly for Seattle.
Respectfully, could not disagree more. The more urban development there is, the harder these things get to build. It's probably impossible to do nowadays, and Seattle is a cesspit of traffic, even compared to other US cities. As far as maintenance or upgrades, please. Why do you brush your teeth?
Finally, can you measure quality of life, and if so, how much money is it worth? It's shameful that it's always an economic argument, usually by people who are already well-off. The list of benefits for mass rapid transit is endless, and at the end of the day, it's Americans who suffer for not having it, nobody else (except with environmental concerns, i.e. global warming).
Don’t get me wrong, I think this would be a great ideal for Seattle today. But back then? Or even from what I remember in the late 70s and 80s? The system would have been very difficult to justify and might have rotted before it was actually needed. And I say this as someone who had to commute from Bothell to UW by bus in the early 90s.
I don't think that's what it means. Don't think about the actual costs, think about when you pay the costs and when you reap the benefit. People want to enjoy the benefits with as little effort or sacrifice from their side.
- Most people aren't willing to be the ones to have to pay any cost, they'd rather have others do it.
- Most people would like to enjoy a benefit as soon as possible, so they'd rather have others put that in place in advance.
Combine these 2 and you get the picture: a person today doesn't want to pay for something and even worse, only get it in a decade or more. Any other discomfort just gets piled on an already unfavorable situation.
The Caldecott Tunnel in the East Bay had three "bores". The center bore would switch directions at noon to accommodate morning and afternoon rush hour, causing painful merges from four to two lanes for people driving the other direction.
Plans for adding a fourth bore, so there would be two eastbound and two westbound bores, started in 2000. Funding wasn't approved until 2007. Construction began in 2009 and the fourth bore opened to the public in 2013.
It’s bad enough to endure a tax increase- but the leaders end up fucking over the landowners so much that even if they know it would be for the best, nobody trusts them to spend the cash the way they promised.
https://crosscut.com/2018/04/salmon-tribes-should-beat-washi...
And just try getting a building permit in unincorporated king county.
King county apparently exists for either Seattle, or anyone but King County citizens.
On your second article, I'm not sure what your point is about the tribes vs Washington state.
https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/king/
Its a democracy, vote for better ppl.
This is local propaganda by the large corporations here and Saul Spady running around whining on 5pm TV news about having to spend more money in taxes when he's enjoyed nothing but a booming Seattle restaurant industry directly due to the laws he opposed. Everything goes on the people because the businesses here don't really pay anything and those same people who complain about their taxes going up willingly defend not taxing the corporations reaping major benefits here. The tax system is also extremely regressive. Not to mention the public shows no backlash against giving $100's of millions of dollars of public taxpayer money to dumb shit like repairing Safeco Field when the owners and Mariners could've paid for it themselves.
Seattle is a fiscally right wing city, not this 'socialist hell hole' everyone makes it out to be.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/930...
You can't blanket apply this to all projects, even the ones in Move Seattle, therefore it's nothing but propaganda from people who don't want to spend anything on public infrastructure or public transit. Jenny Durkan is also quite the liar when it comes to the missing street car link [2].
[1] http://sdotblog.seattle.gov/2018/04/23/the-latest-on-move-se...
[2] https://www.theurbanist.org/2018/07/26/mayor-durkan-claims-s...
I promise you I am not a Russian bot. My neighbors aren't either. We sincerely don't trust these groups.
Why escalate to claiming an opinion you disagree with is propaganda?
During the head tax fiasco, the people collecting signatures were openly lying and pushing corporate propaganda [1], and it seems like most of Seattle's media that isn't third party are just local propaganda outlets that push serious distrust of our elected left wing officials at the expense of residents that aren't rich, unless it's something like giving public money to a sports stadium that could've been funded by private money. The hate of Sawant is unjustified and further pushed by local propaganda.
Please stop conflating propaganda with just Russia as well. Noam Chomsky clearly points out the propaganda model and how it's used by our own media & corporations, and also points out how a lot of businesses are private governments now [2].
[] https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/06/06/27190451/audio-a...
[2] https://taibbi.substack.com/p/preface-an-interview-with-noam...
I'd qualify that with someone who has used it to go to the airport. Guarrantee there are "drive everywhere, even across the street" folks lurking.
The mailbox was less than 50 feet from the frontdoor.
One of my favorite stories from that trip was getting a call from my father that he got last minute Broadway tickets for us in a couple hours, while I was on the Ellis Island/Statue of Liberty ferry. When he heard where I was on the map he was concerned I might not make it to dinner/the show on time, and I knew I had the timing on my side with the Subway to get there right on time. (And I did.)
If the NYC subway system had always been like it is now, and would stay this way indefinitely, it would still be worth having. It would be sweaty and crowded and unreliable for getting to work right on time, but it would work well off-peak and decrease congestion admirably. The heatstroke and crashes and fires would be objectionable, but it's probably still safer per trip than the sidewalks.
But it used to be better, and the city shaped itself around that, and all serious estimates say it's going to get even worse. If picked your apartment to suit your paycheck and give you a 30 minute commute by subway, and that suddenly goes up to 90 minutes (or to "track fire, everybody out"), you might well be worse off than if you'd never had the option in the first place.
NYC has fewer miles of subway than it did after WWII. On time rates are the worst of any major city in the world, and have been steadily falling for every single line in the city, outages have risen, injuries have risen, maintenance spending fell while budget rose. There's no plausible budget plan to fix most of that. Meanwhile, the North River tunnels have a lifespan of "20 years or until the next hurricane", and the most optimistic plans for fixing that require either 10+ years of construction and several billion in future funding, or a 50% capacity reduction for years.
The issue isn't that the subway is expensive and slow. It's that the city is reliant on the subway, but there doesn't appear to be any realistic plan for halting the decline or preventing crisis if it continues.
For example seeing so many successful public transport systems in other parts of the world could not only make you reconsider you opinion on this in general but even come up with an idea that you can actually get behind for your home city.
The one thing I try to avoid is testing the rush hour traffic as a driver. This doesn't mean I don't pay attention to see what that city/country has done about it and how they're tackling it.
Many people just hop on the tourist bus, go straight from the hotel to visit the handful of famous attractions and call it a vacation. Good for them I guess, although I find that just marginally better than Google Street View.
Any experience can be a let down or a cliche if that's what you planned and executed. You get to experience more or less exactly what you bargained for.
Let’s assume these young people aren’t dumb or brain washed. What rational reasons might they have to oppose rail transit? (In your answer account for the fact that Vancouver is several times denser than Seattle or most US cities).
Didn’t California want to build its high-speed rail in the 1970s?
Americans chose to pay later for mass transit. Now it’ll cost us a fortune.
The same thing with small economical cars with great mileage. Remember a few years ago when gas prices rose above $4 and every pundit was saying that gas guzzling trucks and SUVs were a thing of the past. Want to guess what the the best selling vehicles are today? They aren't small sedans. They are large trucks.
https://focus2move.com/usa-best-selling-cars/
> Americans chose to pay later for mass transit. Now it’ll cost us a fortune.
No. We chose cars. And we will continue to choose cars over mass transit. It will take something drastic to change american culture and our lifestyle.
You can't generalize this to all Americans, as it largely seems to be localized to the Baby Boomer generation, who were responsible for roughly 2/3rds of automobile sales in 2011. There's an Autoweek article[1] that tries to spin this positively, but it basically says that Millennials and Gen-Z are responsible for just 30% of vehicle sales in 2017. Essentially, people ages 18-35 are purchasing less than a third of the vehicles, despite being at a position in their lives where a demand should be at its highest.
Complicating matters, it looks like the market research pointing to millennials essentially purchasing them merely out of pragmatic necessity, to drive to work or cart families around because there are no other options: Makes sense, because that's how the Baby Boomers shaped most of our metro areas. They're less car "owners" and more car hostages. As boomers die off, their economic and political power will wane and we're going to see some pretty dramatic changes to urban and suburban landscapes.
[1] https://autoweek.com/article/car-news/bucking-trends-milleni...
I'm 35 - pretty much everyone I could think of my age or slightly younger has run their vehicles into the ground before getting or new one or had to get something due to life events (babies).
My parents (Boomers) somehow cycle through new cars every 3-4 years. It's weird to get a call or text from my mom with a photo of a new car that she traded her barely two year old one in for but 'she just had to have it!'.
I'm pretty content with my 15 year old one that knock wood hopefully has more years in it.
You mean the largest and wealthiest demographic bought the most cars during one of the worst economic recessions where a significant portion of the younger generation had to move back with their parents just to survive?
> There's an Autoweek article[1] that tries to spin this positively, but it basically says that Millennials and Gen-Z are responsible for just 30% of vehicle sales in 2017.
They aren't "spinning" anything. They are just offering data and expectations. As the economy improves and as the younger generation get on better financial footing and as they get older, they'll buy more cars. What's so shocking about that? Even you acknowledge that they went from a 20% market share in 2011 ( a major recession era ) to 30% today. And as millenials get wealthier and as gen-z gets older, common sense and data says that trend will increase.
> Essentially, people ages 18-35 are purchasing less than a third of the vehicles, despite being at a position in their lives where a demand should be at its highest.
How is 18-35 at the age where demand is the highest? You think kids in college need cars?
> Complicating matters, it looks like the market research pointing to millennials essentially purchasing them merely out of pragmatic necessity, to drive to work or cart families around because there are no other options:
As opposed to buying them to hang on your wall as decoration?
> As boomers die off, their economic and political power will wane and we're going to see some pretty dramatic changes to urban and suburban landscapes.
In some matters sure. But certainly not when it comes to cars and most definitely not in the suburban landscape. Even in urban landscapes, like NYC metro area with great public transportation, people still love cars. Come check out the yearly auto show at javits center.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASKof4CR2SE
Trains run every ninety seconds or so and are packed during rush hour.
To give those numbers some context, when Seattle's Link Light Rail builds out ST2 in 2021, capacity will be 14.4K per hour; and this is running a ordinary schedule of every four minutes.
The New York City Subway at its busiest scheduled section runs much longer trains every two minutes, at a capacity of 75K per hour. That's with 1930's signalling - with modern signalling, they could run trains every 90 seconds, for a capacity of 100k per hour. And that's just on two tracks.
Cars are really space inefficient because you need an engine and a fuel tank for a small group of people. Trains and buses have the advantage of fitting more seats in the same area, and then having people stand on top of that.
That's an extremely optimistic number - running a train every 90 seconds would leave people basically no time to get on or off the train, and ingress/egress gets harder as platforms get more crowded.
That being said, it is possible for platforms to become so congested that they actually start impacting headways; the Lexington Av Line (4/5/6) in New York had this issue until recently because it was carrying more than the daily riderships of Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco's entire systems.
https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/china-successfull...
In Friday morning traffic, the route can take 30-50 minutes by car. On Saturday nights, it can take 15 minutes. If you can get 40 MPG and pay $3.40 per gallon, this could cost just $1.27 in gasoline, instead of $2.50 to a train or bus company.
[0]https://goo.gl/maps/iyZEKttcBFo
Edit: Multiply not divide. ;)
Maglev trains won’t be running at 25 mph.
I'm not really sure what's going on, is it like this everywhere? Wishing that the problems get fixed by just holding out and hoping something gives?
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sound_Transit_3
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sound_Transit#Sound_Transit_2
BTW, I voted for it so I'm aware, I just find it hard to believe it's so borderline and there's folks who seem really angry they need to contribute to the community's well-being. But hey, I guess as someone else said, no one likes to pay taxes.
I don't think many people are trying to negatively impact the community. They just don't think it is a good investment considering how expensive rail is at being almost a billion dollars a mile and it will take up to 20 years to finish if it all goes according to schedule.
One guy I talked to made the argument that in 20 years, we should have self driving busses and if each one costs a million (current busses are like 300,000-600,000 from a quick google search), we could buy 53,800 busses with that money which would service a lot more people in a lot more unique routes which I thought was a pretty decent argument if you believe we will get self driving busses that soon.
I would rather have an oversupply of transportation so I say let's do both, but I can see their arguments for balancing taxes to pay for transportation with how much supply is needed.
Boston's big dig, and California's high-speed train system with ever-increasing costs do not instill a lot of confidence in "this time it'll be different".
That being said, Seattle did end up funding ST3 (the contemporary referendum in the article) as well as an earlier tax raise to pay for expanding bus services. In fact, even Forward Thrust had a majority of votes, but due to a quirk in how the referendum was organized they needed to pass a 60% threshold.
Seattle is fiscally right wing and only pushing further that way.
It's incredible how much better it is even though it takes twice as long as driving would...
But, people ain't smart and they love their cars. Here's to hoping ST3 actually happens!
And the few spots that aren't being or targeted for being converted are still, technically, active freight rail lines so light rail vehicles can't run on them.
> technically
It would be orders of magnitude cheaper for ST to buy them than to create new right-of-way. And I haven't seen a train on them for decades, ever since they tore up where it crossed over I405 in Bellevue.
And it's not that ST can't override Kirkland, it's that it won't override Kirkland. Pissing off a huge constituency of voters is a great way to ensure that not only they vote against, say, Sound Transit 3, they go out of their way to ensure that other people vote against it.
As for buying the tracks, there's no obligation for a freight railroad to sell and virtually none will because once that ROW is gone it will never come back. As for quantity of trains, there only has to be one sometime, someday. Look at all of the pushback the immeasurably tiny Ballard Terminal Railroad has done to stop these kinds of projects.
Honestly, who cares. These are the same people who are going to vote against it, and go out of their way to ensure that other people vote against it anyway.
At some point we have to stop letting a few people with the most money and the loudest mouthpieces run the entire region into the ground.
That's why the government has the power of eminent domain.
Besides, King County already owns it:
https://www.kingcounty.gov/services/parks-recreation/parks/t...
It's the first line of the comment to which you're replying:
> Sound Transit isn't King County.
But I do agree that if they had built a tunnel 50 years ago, it definitely wouldn't have been designed to be resistant to a magnitude 9 earthquake.
>Imagine a plate of fruit-filled gelatin dessert. Tunnels are like the pieces of fruit at the base of the gelatin, while above-ground structures are like the fruit toward the top. If you shake the plate, the movement becomes more exaggerated as it flows up from the base of the gelatin. In an earthquake, this translates to tunnel movement measured in inches, while the movement above ground might be measured in feet.
Like the internet, a distributed architecture, will cause traditional server mainframe networking to be obsolete.
Train networks will be the biggest waste of public money for those who start these projects within next couple years.
Why would there need to be strangers?
You mean, say, sixty or seventy people, maybe? Let's think big! I wonder what such a vehicle might look like...