1) You mentioned layoffs, but you didn't mention how long it took those people to find new jobs.
2) For those who couldn't find new jobs, how many of them avoided interviews or job offers because they were unwilling to relocate?
3) How transferable are "mainframe" skills to other "mainframe" installations? (As a non-mainframe-programmer, I have no idea how much one's skillset is peculiar to a specific mainframe vendor, mainframe OS version, etc.)
4) I get the impression that long-term mainframe developers actually have two parallel skillsets: (a) technical skills related to mainframe work in general, and (b) skills related to their particular installation's line-of-business and specific applications. For laid-off employees who couldn't find work, is it possible that their (b)-style skillsets were just not marketable to many other employers?