Comment by zaroth | Hacker News Reader

Comment by zaroth | Hacker News Reader

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We are practically living in that universe today — never mind once slack capacity opens up and they go down market with the standard range model at $35k.

Did you miss the report last week that Tesla is outselling BMW’s entire passenger car lineup? [1]

Also, double check your numbers - “The BMW 3 Series (the Model 3's direct competitor) sold only 3,751 cars in August.“

Tesla delivered between 17,000 - 20,000 Model 3’s in August, by comparison.

> Ford makes 50-90k F-150's a month without the drama.

“Production of the F-150, the most important vehicle in Ford’s showrooms, has ground to a halt.

Ford on Wednesday was forced to suspend all production of the F-150 after a fire at a key supplier’s manufacturing facility. It remained unclear how long the plants in Kansas City, Missouri, and Dearborn, Michigan, will need to wait before building F-150s again” [2]

That was back in May. Today they announced a recall of 2 million F150s due to a fire risk which is estimated to cost them $140 million dollars. [3]

[1] - https://www.autoblog.com/amp/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-outsel...

[2] - https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/why-the-ford-f-150-is-a-...

[3] - https://interestingengineering.com/ford-recalls-more-than-2-...

Mmmhh, I don't understand what is meant with "selling" in the first article ("https://www.autoblog.com/amp/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-outsel...). Is it related to "delivering" the vehicles that were ordered long time back or is it related to brand new orders for new cars?

Asking because if it's the first case then of course the comparison would not be fair.

These are cars that Tesla is collecting $50k+ at the time of delivery for each one.

Yeah there are about 400,000 people lined up to buy them, and they will keep on selling them just as fast as they can make them for many many more months.

We don’t know how many new reservation holders are being added at the end of the list, just that the total dollar value of all deposits on hand is increasing.

You’re right though it’s not a comparison. No car company in history has been able to get 400,000 people to put down $1,000 on a vehicle, sight unseen, never mind an electric one at that.

The BMW i3, by comparison, sold a grand total of 418 cars last month. No one is lining up around the block to buy that one.

They really are sales. Anecdotally, I pre-ordered a model S, for a little more. Eventually when it can time to buy, I got my money back (actually more due to exchange rates). I then pre-ordered a model 3. Eventually, I will cancel that order too because I ended up upgrading to a Model S. The point here is, Tesla still need to convince people to hand over the cash. The cost of withdrawal and sunk cost in minimal if you don't like it.

Does the tesla fan really want to get in to an argument about build quality right now?

A fire at a factory shutting it down is not hte same type of drama as constantly missing estimates and using a tent to extend the line.

Fan or not, GP said there was no way Tesla could make and sell 25,000 cars a month and here they are last month selling 20,000. Would it be so shocking to see a month with 25k?

GP said Ford makes the F150s with “no drama” and yet their factory is burning and their cars are catching fire — something I recall Tesla getting flack for, but Tesla never had a $140 million recall for it.

I get it, different standards for different companies. The company making 20 mpg pickup trucks in business for 115 years I completely agree it’s a different kind of drama for their factory to burn, all F150 vehicle production to cease, and to recall 2 million vehicles for spontaneously combusting.

GP said, “It's not credible that Tesla, with a limited sales network, limited charging infrastructure, high costs and long backlog is going to magically take away double digit percentages of the highly competitive small luxury sedan market.”

Except that’s exactly what they’ve done. Fan or not, those are the facts, and I think to debate about Tesla it helps if you’re not in denial about their actual accomplishments.

Give me a break. Tesla is working massive backlog of pre-orders generated by the hype associated with the company. Some people have been waiting years. There’s no world where 25,000 people a month are showing up and driving away with a car.

Ford had an F-150 production stoppage due to a fire, and was able to restart production a few weeks later. They had the capital and (invisible, unsexy) team to deploy Russian heavy lift aircraft to move key tools in hours and restore production. It was largely invisible.

With Tesla, you have the constant stream of PR and the apparent need for the CEO to personally assume control of the factory to meet minimum requirements. The process and company is broken.

> Tesla is working massive backlog of pre-orders generated by the hype associated with the company.

The Model 3 certainly smashed all records for new car reservations — 232,000 in two days, 500,000 by July 2017. (The previous record was for the 1955 Citroën DS that had 80,000 deposits during the ten days of the Paris Auto Show) [Says Wikipedia]

But these are by no means pre-orders. Refundable $1,000 deposits, of which about 25% have actually been refunded to date, it’s not so much of a hook when you can click a button to refund it, and the car costs $50k+

> There’s no world where 25,000 people a month are showing up and driving away with a car.

Do you dispute that 20,000 people showed up, paid $50,000+, and drove away with Model 3’s in August?

Do you think that number won’t be 25,000 in September?

You sound offended that Tesla has a hot product that people have lined up to buy. Yeah, they took pre-orders and people have waited years to get one. Because they want one. Because it’s like nothing else on the road today. Because, as the WSJ said, it’s a “rainbow-farting spaceship.”

This is the CEO that wanted his 3 models to spell S-E-X but couldn't because of Ford’s trademark, so he settled for “S3X”. You might not like his style, but you’re simply denying the reality of the sales numbers.

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