Comparing the NYT op-ed to tweets from cabinet members
github.com
github.com
Also, just because you can do something doesn't mean you should.
[To the objection] Someone else could have authored it and had this official to the “op ed writing” though it’s unlikely, it’s not impossible.
Like what? Could you name several instances of Trump publishing an article in a major newspaper under false name criticizing himself?
Regardless of how you might feel about everyone in the administration, it'd certainly be a clear warning to people about the risk of making such statements in the interest of transparency, and you can be sure we'd never see one ever again, from any politicians on any side of the political spectrum.
For the sake of discussion, what ethical arguments do you think there are for finding out who wrote this? Let's assume you aren't in the Trump camp, since it'd be reasonable to say that if you support Trump then you might be more motivated to find out who it is, and there's nothing wrong with that I suppose.
If a person doesn't like the president, the proper recourse is public criticism working to ensure he doesn't get re-elected and if possible impeachment . . . the proper recourse is never actively sabotaging the president of the United States. There may be exceptional circumstances where the president is violating the constitution, however, we still have a functional supreme court so that exception isn't raised in this circumstance.
Each person is their own person. Employees are not computers. Provided they are not breaking any laws, but merely using the resources and power at their disposal. I think the truth of it is.. this is just how government functions.
In fact, no one would bat an eyelid if this were for personal gain. Ideology seems to really bother people from either side of the political spectrum.
But I mean, personally I would have an issue with doing something like this myself. It does seem dishonest, but then.. Trump.
I was making a couple of more subtle points. What I was getting at is that the only difference between this unelected group of people trying to usurp government and others is they think they are not doing it primarily for personal gain. And that it is the ideology (whichever political side it is on or against) and the fragility of democracy, that is actually what scares people rather than the usurping bit.. that is just business as usual.
The other point is that if you allow yourself and your position to be used to do things you think are wrong, this is also unethical. You have a responsibility as a person to use what power you have to change things for the better. I don't personally believe you should compromise your ethics to do this. There is tension between these two things.
It is better for someone to be loyal to the ideals of freedom, democracy, and making the world a better place, even if only out of purely selfish interests (that still fits an enlightened nationalist ideology, which is also plausible of whomever wrote the letter); than it is to be loyal to any single individual. Particularly one whom someone believes does NOT ascribe or live up to those ideals.
Very well may be. But it also very well may be somebody like Timothy McVeigh or David Duke believed they are true patriots. That does not make their actions any better - of course, their actions are very bad, and incomparable with writing an article in NYT, the point is even such bad people can claim to be "true patriots" - anybody can. Believing you yourself is a good guy is not enough, everybody is a hero in their own story. But we have certain rules to ensure that does not lead one too far out - both inside and outside the law.
> It is better for someone to be loyal to the ideals of freedom, democracy, and making the world a better place
There's no objective test for being loyal to the ideals, only subjective opinion. And everybody is willing to declare themselves lovers of freedom. Some terrorists could talk about their love of freedom for hours. Of course, what they mean by "freedom" is different from what you and I would mean. But allowing people to issue themselves indulgences from otherwise unacceptable behavior just because they believe it's for the best purposes is too easy road to abuse to take it as any kind of an acceptable rule.
Why not?
> however, we still have a functional supreme court
We don't. Mitch McConnell saw to that 2 years ago.
Because that's undermining the will of the people. Like it or not, per today, Trump was legitimately and fairly elected. This very well might change in the future, but as of now, we have to assume his presidency is legitimate, no matter how vile or incompetent he is.
I think the author is cowardly, disingenuous, and dangerous.
Yet.
Being duly-elected does not make your actions moral, nor above reproach.
The Republicans are going to be split between those supporting their incumbent and those wanting to declare a mulligan on 2016 and say the country needs a safe "real Republican" president to restore our equilibrium. Mike Pence could go with either camp, but I bet he abandons Trump and tries to get the presidency himself. Fortune favors the bold.
Imagine Donald Trump trying to campaign for the nomination while his vice president campaigns against him and calls him mentally unfit to govern. There's no reason that can't happen except that it seems too crazy to be allowed to happen.
Isn't it interesting how social media (and in this case the traditional media as well) has so completely distorted reality? Effectively the same approval rating as Obama yet here you are quite genuinely suggesting that perhaps his VP will start declaring the president crazy and openly run against him. This is a consequence of people surrounding themselves only with voices that they are ideologically aligned with. You tend to lose sight of what people, as a whole, actually think. This, in turn, fuels radicalism. It's not a great system.
[1] - https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ra...
It is interesting though how people blame the media for their own distorted views of reality. The American media is objectively awful by most first-world standards, but that doesn't explain the extraordinary ignorance of Americans themselves.
[1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
[2] https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ra...
[3] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-year-in-trumps-appr...
But in any case getting below 40% would indeed require substantial "adjusting."
[1] - https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_j...
> The average is 42.98% approval.
I don't think your polling model actually means anything. As the RCP data makes clear there's an enormous spread to those polls. What do you think that average represents?
> Obama's rating for this quarter, at least according to Gallup was 45.
Why do you only consider Gallup's poll for Obama at this time. Why not consider averages? Isn't that your model?
You seem to be trying very hard to suggest that Trump and Obama have "basically the same" popularity at this time but it doesn't make any sense. Trump's approval rating never rises above 45% for his second term but Obama's approval rating almost never falls below 45%. It's quite a stretch to suggest their popularity is comparable.
[1] https://qz.com/889644/obamas-approval-rating-from-his-first-...
And once again, as I've constantly stressed, I'm speaking about this moment in time as that is generally what people are referring to when comparing presidents at any given moment in time. E.g. you would not say Bush was a popular president, yet he had an average approval rating of 49.4%, which was even higher than Obama. The thing that confounds it is averages -- his popularity shot to near 100% after 9/11 from which it started a long slow downward slide as the 'rally around the flag' effect waned. And similar for Obama. He is an absolutely phenomenal and charismatic speaker and he seemed to be living up to his promises at first, which made him tremendously popular. But as it became clear that his early actions belied his actual character, his popularity waned -- leaving him, moment for moment, pretty comparable to Trump at this point in time.
Yet if you polled people on these issues I think there's no doubt that perception vs reality would be incredibly skewed. And for this I think both the social media and the media have played major roles. And this distortion of reality is not productive for a healthy democracy.
Comparing numbers comes with an implicit "all other things being equal..." which is a huge disclaimer in Trump's case. Anyway, his persistent popularity with a certain percentage of the population, far from not penetrating the liberal bubble, is the most famous thing about him. From early in the Republican primary, his opponents have been burned over and over again by assuming that this time his popularity will suffer, this time it's safe to bet against him. I predict that in 2020 there will be more big Republican names ready to bet against Trump.
You say this as if it's a bad thing. Trump met disdain from Republicans during his entire run and tenure as president. It only adds to his popularity. People are tired of typical politicians.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/...
and I think the most meaningful metric is the "net approval", i.e. the difference between the approval and disapproval rating. You will see that at this time in the Obama presidency, Obama had a net approval of -2.6 while Trump has a a net approval of -13.6 at this time of writing.
Maybe the difference is less than what some people think, but there is still quite a difference.
You end up with the same problem of centralization that aggregation aims to avoid.
Imagine a thought experiment. We're able to do something 100 times, each on a consecutive day, but without any knowledge of what happened on previous days affecting the future, and without any future information or events affecting original 'intent'. If you played a sports game 100 times you'd generally get a wide distribution of results. But if you ran the election 100 times, you're generally going to get the same result.
The point here is that Trump winning did not indicate a 'low probability' event. It indicated a dramatic failing in sampling. Why was this? The 'art' in sampling is not only obtaining a representative sample, but actually determining what a representative sample even is. And the radicalization of our society is making this more and more difficult. The media was running bits literally comparing Trump to Hitler, individuals have been assaulted, robbed, and denied service simply because somebody became aware they supported Trump, and even business leaders have been harassed to no end for doing things that could be seen as supportive of Trump. Like you mention even pollsters that didn't cheerlead a completely crushing Clinton victory "got shit" -- that's all just completely absurd! This creates a chilling effect where individuals are going to be less inclined to respond, and/or respond honestly, when queried about their views. Then pollsters are left to rely on incorrect information which hampers not only sampling but even in the determination of a representative sample.
And the point of all of this now is that presumably most pollsters have tried to change their ways. But this will be the first election where that will be put to the test. So unbiased aggregation is more informative than ever. 538's "adjustments" were based on past polls before we had such social extremism, and by relying on them alone for their first real test - well, that's a huge leap of faith.
Compare this to, for instance, how the media and society society responded to e.g. Romney, McCain, or Bush. Society has shifted sharply towards intolerance which is making obtaining accurate information very difficult when that information might leave one within the crosshairs of said intolerance. This creates a major chilling effect which leads people to misrepresent their views. Take the state of society today and then imagine somebody calls you and asks if you're voting and if so, for who. You're going to get some decent chunk of Trump supporters that will lie here. Voting is anonymous, but phone calls are not.
The burden of somehow trying to overcome this problem is on pollsters, and the only thing that's certain is that it's not going to be easy. Gallup was way ahead of the game here -- deciding for the first time ever to not make predictions about the 2016 election.
You also seem to be under the impression that the polls were drastically off in 2016. They weren't: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right National polls in 2016 were better than average, and while state polls were worse-than-average it still wasn't the worst error in the last 30 years.
The problem was never really with the polls (though there are problems there, most notably herding). The problem was with the narrative around the election which cited polls as evidence that Clinton was a sure bet even though the polls didn't really say that.
Of course, if you have evidence that the polls were more wrong than this I'd like to hear it.
Everybody was predicting a crushing electoral victory for Clinton. Instead she suffered a crushing electoral defeat. Look at 538's own forecasts [1]. You'll note he put the odds of Clinton Winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college at just 10.5% when not only is that what happened, but it happened by a wide margin with Trump's electoral victory margin being even greater than was predicted for Clinton's.
As an aside, even the popular vote aggregates are somewhat disingenuous since they're heavily based on major polling screw ups. For instance Clinton's margin of victory in the popular vote nation wide is smaller than her margin of victory of victory in California alone. 538 was off by more than a million votes there, which they're now using to try to spin into defending the aggregate numbers (which are not even what the election was predicted on to begin with.) This is just really disingenuous stuff.
[1] - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
That requires to place 100% trust in NYT, which you may be willing to do, but it's not a law of nature. Journalists in search of a scoop have been known to confuse what they want with what really is (remember the sordid Bush memo affair that ruined Dan Rather's career?) and even if not intentionally deceitful, being easier to deceive if the information confirms their biases.
> For the sake of discussion, what ethical arguments do you think there are for finding out who wrote this?
Knowing who wrote this allows to adequately evaluate whether what is said there is true, what vested interests or grudges may the author have and what information may they have from the first hand, second hand and what information they couldn't have and if they claim they have it they must be lying. E.g. if somebody who doesn't have clearance says they have been on classified briefing and heard Trump say so and so, it would be clear they are either lying or relaying third-party information as first party.
While for the author of the article discovery would be a negative, for a voter that wants to be informed, and wants to independently evaluate the worth of the information knowing the source may be very useful.
Also, since this article does not seem to be disclosing any classified information, the worst thing that could happen is that person would be fired. People got fired from Trump administration many times, some after a very short time, and none of them suffered any heavy consequences that would make any act leading to such outcome unethical, such as death, heavy bodily or mental harm, full financial ruin, etc.
So it appears to be clearly within ethical bounds to research this question, no less than any question that any politician would like to hide to promote their goals. While each such revelation inevitably would hurt somebody's interests (otherwise nobody would try to hide it!), there's nothing unethical in still trying to reveal it.
For instance imagine this individual's cabal has an opportunity to engage in an awful act, but due to their position they believe this act will be blamed on the administration or even the president himself. Do you think they would hesitate to do so? This is one of the many reasons that, for instance, in war traitors tend to be treated much more harshly than even the enemy. There's a difference between open disagreement, even when that disagreement escalates into something beyond just words, and an individual that pretends to be an ally and instead is attempting to destroy somebody from within. The latter is already shown to have placed no value on anything except their own world view.
And the purpose of publishing this letter is not to "reassure the public." You should not trust a liar just because he's saying something you want to believe. Occam's razor is highly effective in getting at the truth and in this case it's almost certain that the purpose of publishing this letter is to try to increase the paranoia of the president, and to increase the probability of his engaging in ostensibly irrational behavior. That's just a great idea, right?
But I suppose there's nothing abnormal in publishing an op-ed by a current official. (The anonymity aside.) And it's certainly newsworthy even if it is a sort of wolf in sheep's clothing.
I don't like Trump but this is even worse.
Although I personally voted against him, I believe Donald Trump was elected by the American voters and those American voters have a right to have their policy preferences implemented by the person they’ve elected to do so. If any person with integrity can not carry out their democratically elected leaders orders to the best of their ability, the only recourse they have is to resign and give a full accounting of why they can’t to the American people, if they feel so strongly about it.
What I’ll NEVER support is a secret, unaccountable cabal of plotters who have decided their opinions are more important than American democracy and rule the country according to their personal whims.
To be perfectly blunt, I don’t see what the difference is between that op-ed writers actions and a coup.
Unmasking that person will surely make them unable to continue doing so.
That assumes that the op-ed is completely true and that the strategy being described (resisting the worst impulses of a dangerously inept leader from inside the administration) is the correct one, but it's not a hard argument to make under those assumptions at least.
My betting money is on the VP, but it doesn't matter who wrote it. This narrative will be used to defend complicit Republicans in the event Trump goes down.
They are enabling a dangerous man to continue in one of the most powerful offices on the planet, because they refuse to stand up and tell the truth about the matter.
But they obviously do not actually believe that.
Pence uses the word "lodestar," Mattis loves to say "first principles." The ending (reach across aisle) reads a lot like McCain speak. ...Of course the 42D Chess move is to make it look like anyone near Trump could have written it.
It's also possible it was penned by two or three people, especially if it was a group that formed a pact to save their jobs/face as un-elected bureaucrats, as a hedge if the midterms go poorly and they still want D.C. jobs, etc.
[0] https://www.reddit.com/r/MuseumOfReddit/comments/1iv343/the_...
It should be careful to distinguish between the harm caused to his family and the cause of his death which I dont think was reddit/4chan. I am a bit confused because this says he dissapeared on the 16th, but other sources say he had been missing for a month prior.
Besides, correlations with tweets probably wouldn’t mean much as tweets are not written the same way as regular text and not by the same person anyway.
While I know that one word quips are verboten here I can’t resist ... ha!
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?m...
Question asked at around 17:00
To be clear, I find his attacks on the media horrifying, and it's one of the things that's so disgusting about this NYT op-ed.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-anonymous-...
Regardless, if throw out POTUS and VP, we are left with Pompeo and Ross as the two highest.