Reinventing the Wheel: Why no-tech ancient civilizations still can't catch up.
foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com
China was technologically more advanced once. As was the Middle East. The Mayans. We could go on listing 'peoples' who were at one point technologically advanced but are now way behind economically.
This is just mistaking the effect of accumulated capital for technology. This is just wrong on so many levels, so obviously wrong.
And how do you accumulate capital? By hammering on stones?
This doesn't work as a counterexample, because they are once again one of the world's largest economies.
As was the Middle East.
I wonder how (the absolute lack of) natural resources figures into this. Also, Easterly notes the terrible impact that bad leadership can have (indeed, I think that was a major sub-point of the article). And considering all the wars there, I'm guessing that a real infrastructure based on that technology can't accrete very deeply.
About the Mayans, I don't know enough...
I'd hate to say the emperor has no clothes, but this does not seem revolutionary in any sense. In fact, there seems to be more counter-examples than examples when we look to the fact that the Middle East, India, China, and North America does not fit the pattern. The Middle East was technologically advanced in the 1500s, China was cited as a counter-example, and there was not much development in North America. In fact, the movement of people and ideas seems to contradict the authors thesis.
This conclusion also fails on closer examination. Superficially, this might work when comparing Europe as a whole vs. Africa as a whole, but Finland is also noted as a previous technological backwater with high GDP now. I'm skeptical of any predictive power of this model.
On the other hand, the author is relatively eloquent. I like the line: "There's a Thomas Edison born every minute. We just have to help them turn the lights on." Just not particularly insightful.
What the article is saying can be reduced further: Descendants of civilizations that have moved ahead of others will stay ahead unless they stop moving.
And further still: When you move ahead of someone in a race, you'll stay ahead until you slow down.
That might be nice to point out, but his mission at World Bank was how to bring the less technologically advanced countries forward, not explaining why countries who used to be technologically advanced happens to be richer today.
Obvious point, well argued.
He says interesting things about people carrying technology around. I wonder what you can do with immigration to make your country become more technologically advanced.
GG&S's explanation would be that the environment for certain regions of the world produces technology a lot faster than other regions. So yeah if one region was tech. advanced 1000 years ago the advantage would snowball over time.
Perhaps the path of development needs some rethinking to ensure they are inherently transferrable or at least have a high-level of empowerment in situations where the level of capital required is substantial or out of reach of individual or small groups.
!wiki horse collar
Look at that article again. Some early form of the horse collar may have been around in China around AD200-250, but the finished form wasn't until 450-500. Rome fell in 476.
Besides, consider what kind of contact Rome had with China. Nobody traveled all the way from Rome to China; instead, goods were relayed: China to India, India to Arabia, Arabia to Constantinople, Constantinople to Rome. And the caravans through Arabia didn't use horses; goods were carried on camels. So there was no route for the horse collar to take, as a live technology. Somebody in China could have tried exporting horse collars, but it wouldn't have worked--only very valuable items were worth shipping all that way.
Europe didn't adopt until 1000AD.
We weren't talking about Europe, we were talking about the Roman Empire.
That caveat "as a live technology" is not strong: many technologies Did pass between cultures even though they weren't attached to the camel.
(Western) Rome wasn't around in 1000AD, Europe was.
True, but your original claim was about Rome ignoring a technology that wasn't available until 524 years after Rome fell. And I'd still like to see some evidence that gunpowder existed before 476 as well so that Rome could ignore it.
Western Roman empire fell in 476.
Wasn't available until after Rome fell? That was my point - it was there all the time (perhaps since 200AD, certainly at 500AD).
(All according to Wikipedia.)
The rise of the Asian economies: http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/hans_rosling_asia_s_rise_h...
Talking to foreign aid policy workers: http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/hans_rosling_at_state.html
I agree with all of this.
After reading lots of history, it seems to me that the most enduring and effective form of government is the decentralized imperial republic. This is not a common viewpoint among non-historians, but the key elements of this form of government tend to produce healthy, growing, prosperous, safe societies. Here's the specific elements in more detail:
Decentralized means allowing local areas in the republic to set largely their own laws, have their own worship, and their own customs. The head government sets minimum standards, and local governors see to it that they are met. These are basic conditions of infrastructure like roads and hospitals, communications networks, defense/garrisons, a few universal laws, and taxation. Everything else is up to the local regional governor.
Imperial will be the most controversial element of this, because there's been a large movement for self-rule in the post WWII era. I think there's lots of merit to that movement, but I wonder if the baby has been thrown out with the bathwater to some extent. Imperialism works as a natural check and balance against corrupt government - in a world where imperialism is more acceptable, it's basically "fair game" to go conquer any dysfunctional place. Thus, you don't get governments like you have in Venezuela with the government bringing in trillions in oil money that supposedly belongs to the people, but 1/3rd of the population are living on less than a dollar a day, and then the country has one of the highest murder rates in the world and the government is basically a mafia. In an era where imperialism is acceptable, Chavez gets exiled or executed, and the Chinese or Americans or British or whoever install a local governor that brings peace, stability, infrastructure, and rule of law to Venezuela.
Republic means some form of representative democracy. I think representative democracy actually performs worse on average than monarchy because corrupt, waste, and crime gradually increase in republics until the nation breaks, and it's very hard for a single leader to clean house. However, republics don't fall under the trap of having one horrifically bad leader who ruins the entire civilization. It's a tradeoff. I thought the British Empire did a good job with this, with a balance between the House of Lords, House of Commons, some strong constitution-type documents like the Magna Carta, the military, and local governors. Power was distributed in a decentralized way. The Prime Minister or Monarch could step up and assert authority when times got dire or massive house cleaning was necessary, but most of the time the Empire had some significant republican democratic elements to it keeping the aristocracy in check.
Of course, this is all very unfashionable these days, and everyone compares ideas to the current era. But for producing high levels of science, commerce, invention, quality of life, safety, peace, rule of law, health, art, and other key things - decentralized imperial republicanism has absolutely outperformed just about every other form of government.
Whatever the side effects may have turned out to be, the British empire certainly did not set out to "empower ordinary individuals who will create new and unforeseen technologies out of old ones."
Superpowers pitying undeveloped countries and nominating themselves as Imperial rulers as the only solution to their plight sounds rather self-serving, don't you think?
The parent to your post didn't propose going about establishing them, he was just pointing out the advantages.
Whatever the side effects may have turned out to be,
the British empire certainly did not set out to
"empower ordinary individuals who will create new
and unforeseen technologies out of old ones."
Good intentions have a poor record in politics and public policy, and are probably a weak place to start to make a point.he was just pointing out the advantages.
Maybe, but he did so without even a hint of how those advantages could be achieved in an alternate way or any mention of the disadvantages. To me, it sounded like he was implying establishing decentralized imperial republics.
He pointed out that other attempts haven't worked as well. Maybe he's wrong, or maybe there is something new that would work better, but that's a very different complaint.
> or any mention of the disadvantages.
he said that they existed.
> To me, it sounded like he was implying establishing decentralized imperial republics.
implying->recommending ?
There are two ways to evaluate decentralized imperial republics, on an absolute scale and on a relative scale. On an absolute scale, they're bad. On a relative scale, they seem to work better than the alternatives.
You seem to think that "they're bad" is the end of things. Unless you've got something better, it isn't.
But how else does one start? With bad intentions? If we are talking about ways to "produce healthy, growing, prosperous, safe societies", good intentions are a given.
The question is how one uses available data to steer ourselves in the direction of achieving those good intentions.
Everything has diminishing returns but a good mix of education, healthcare, research and infrastructure spending is required to optimize long term productivity. Corruption and protected industry's are harmful so you eliminate them. A simple tax system that focuses on maximizing revenue outperforms other approaches while limiting enforcement costs. etc.
PS: At some point further investment will have diminishing returns but the US is still well below that threshold with our current technology and we are constantly innovating. And a light hand reduces the tendency for revolution.
Culteral differences of government, language, style, currency (localized versions of the Euro), entertainment remain. How do you think culture interferes with the EU operating smoothly?
Decentralize governance, establish an intelligent government with some democratic elements if there isn't currently one, and expand internationally by taking control of areas that are grossly misgoverned. China could put Burma under better governance, for instance. Or anyone could put North Korea under better governance.
> Superpowers pitying undeveloped countries and nominating themselves as Imperial rulers as the only solution to their plight sounds rather self-serving, don't you think?
Well, it would have to serve a successful country for them to put lots of resources into the project. I think the more important question is, could it work? I think the answer to that is yes. People point to some wrongs done by Britain or Rome, not mentioning that many of the places that wrongs were done were much worse before going under British rule. Again, I'm not claiming it's a perfect model - just that it outperforms a lot of other models of government.
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1775336
While I'm not sure that I agree with this statement I do have to admit that the negative aspects of Imperial rule aren't exactly widely communicated here in the UK.
Britain wasn't exactly squeamish about using some fairly brutal tactics - the use of concentration camps during the Second Boer War being one of the better known examples.
The problems with the British Empire (and other imperial Empires) resulted from an approach more or less the polar opposite of the fanatical evil cult of the Third Reich: it was essentially government determined mainly by influential individuals' profit motives. Food exports and protectionism whilst part of the population starves happen frequently with home-grown regimes; the problem is one of distribution of wealth and influence and not of remoteness or ethnic differences. And you'd be hard pressed to show me a country that _didn't_ use brutal tactics, including against civilians, during warfare; the chief novelty of the British concentration camps was that they kept records of casualties and fiercely debated the appropriateness of the tactics they used
Recent imperialist ventures - Iraq comes to mind - where the US and its allies overthrew the local dictator - have led to a worse mess.
Let's not forget the long-term effects of British rule in places as far-flung as Ireland, Cyprus and - of course - Iraq and the rest of the Middle East. A policy of divide-and-rule led to pretty awful consequences.
British government during the 18th and 19th centuries was spectacularly corrupt - the rotten boroughs and the Opium Wars being two examples.
Where decentralized British rule "worked" was where the Brits deliberately or accidentally wiped out or effectively displaced the native populations - Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
(Disclaimer - I'm British, and have reasons to be proud of my country, but our Imperial past is not one of them).
How exactly are "large swaths" of the EU modelled on the Austro-Hungarian empire?
Wars rarely have simple causes, and the Yugoslavian wars are even worse than most in that regard.
(For example, it's impossible to discuss the Kosovo War without also including the importance of the 1389 Battle of Kosovo in Serbian identity. That battle occurred long before the Austro-Hungarian empire came into existence.)
Being part of the Roman Empire probably offered many advantages - certainly being a Citizen had numerous advantages, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_citizenship. Similarly being part of the British Empire presumably also had advantages. So the real work of establishing decentralized imperial republics is going to be in the social and adminstrative functions applied after the dust of conquest has settled.
This approach seems to the one followed in Iraq and Afghanistan but the Western powers do not seem to be quite so competent as the Romans.
If you're citing divide-and-rule don't quote Iraq. It has 5 races in it, 2 very dominant religions and several suppressed ones (it did once have a history of Christianity and Buddhism). The recent problem of Iraq is that it wasn't divided and the only thing keeping it from all-out civil war was one of the most fascist dictators in recent history who had a policy of if you get out of line you, your family and your friends die or disappear.
Cyprus is another bad example of 'dividing' it was a country that was held together by geographical location not by national identity. When the problems occurred, Turkey tried to intervene, but had to pull out because they were under threat of Soviet invasion (who had interest in Cyprus) and the US clearly stated they wouldn't help in a military invasion of the Turkish homeland.
Where decentralized British rule worked was where it was used. India and Hong Kong are the two countries you purposely failed to mention who have been doing fantastically after British rule. To mention that HSBC was the only bank operating in the UK that survived the global recession was in no way due to the rules the British established in Hong Kong where HSBC started.
This is precisely the legacy of divide-and-conquer British policy!
The way the borders where set during the expansion of the British Empire was to put 2 or 3 different neighboring nations under the rule of a single governor. More over, if a nation was specially strong, it would be split into 2 different neighboring states.
This way, it was possible for the Empire to play the natives against each other. Favoring one of such groups above the rest provided the rank and file for the local law enforcement, public service, business administration and all other institutions needed to keep Empire dominion over the territory. England is simply too small a country to provide enough soldiers to populate garrisons around the world.
When the Empire imploded, the infrastructure for dictatorships was already set in place, but the checks and balances dissappeared overnight.
Too soon to tell. If you told people that Japan would be the second largest economy in the world thirty-five years after WWII, people would've thought you were crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if Baghdad is a top international city in, say, 2045.
> Let's not forget the long-term effects of British rule in places as far-flung as Ireland, Cyprus and - of course - Iraq and the rest of the Middle East. A policy of divide-and-rule led to pretty awful consequences.
Well, Iraq and the Middle East is actually a good example in the other direction - it was ruled by the Ottoman Empire fairly decently for quite a while (it did get corrupt and ugly at the end). Anyways, I don't say it's a perfect governance or all roses all the time, just that it's outperformed most other models on most key metrics.
Apples and oranges. We overthrew the dictator, but we didn't conquer the country--at least, not overtly, the way an empire would. A full-on conquest, made by a federalized empire with experience of conquest, would be entirely different.
(Not necessarily better, but different enough that you can't easily extrapolate.)
Not overtly ? Must have slept through shock and awe.
EDIT: if I were to compare the invasion of Iraq to anything it would be the Spanish-American War and the subsequent invasion and occupation of the Philippines (Kipling's "White Man's Burden" was written as a warning to the Americans). A spurious "cause" whipped up by media frenzy, followed by a long guerilla war much criticised at home and abroad.
Invasion != conquest. The US has not taken Iraq as its territory, or claimed the right to control its government. An empire would.
I said "not overtly" because there probably is a case to be made that we have actually taken control, at least to some degree, while pretending not to. Not the same thing, though--not least because, if we had conquered them, we'd be responsible for them.
Except the British Empire DIDN'T collapse. Rather the British decided that running an empire was actually more trouble that it was worth, and it was converted to what is now the Commonwealth in an orderly and deliberate fashion, and Britain enjoys good relations with the vast majority of its former colonies.
See Kenya, Cyprus, Palestine, partition of India, etc.
Epitomised by the Romans. No one else has mentioned it, so I must:)
Life of Brian
Reg: But apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh-water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?
PFJ Member: Brought peace?
Reg: Frustrated Oh god, peace, SHUT UP!
[1] It was the Empire that fell, the Republic wasn't around any longer to fall.
Self-rule is good, but it's been taken too far. So let's conquer "dysfunctional" places and install foreign rule. Oh, but let's call it representative democracy. Wait, what?
If we pause to consider what's in all this for the benevolent superpower, it appears to me that the subtext here is that it makes sense for their own economic and security gains.
Let's please not sugarcoat these discussions by failing to mention ulterior motives.
It's actually not that complicated. Yes, having representatives from a place in the government is a good thing. The lack of this representation is why the American colonies fell out with Britain, for instance.
Self-rule has good things, but has been taken too far - yes, Zimbabwe's much worse now than it ever was when it was British Rhodesia. A functional local government might be superior to a functional foreign government. But a functional foreign government is far superior to local rule-by-madman. I don't see how anyone could prefer Mugabe to Cecil Rhodes.
And yeah, dysfunctional. No need to put it in scare quotes - I think anyone sane can agree places like North Korea, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and Burma have dysfunctional governments.
http://mises.org/hoppeintro.asp has the introduction to give you something of the flavor.
While we're painting a picture with broad strokes: imperialism is also responsible for the oppression of Catholics in Ireland, apartheid in South Africa, and the disenfranchisement of a large number of indigenous groups the world over.
Sit down and shut up, you've done enough damage.
As far as I can tell his thesis is that civilizations that weren't technologically developed aren't technologically developed. Uhh, ok.
Right now western companies can sell rice cheaper in africa than the africans can themselves and they have no access to the western markets unless it's somehow owned by european or american companies.
They can't catch up because they are not allowed to play the game.