Divisiveness is efficient for watch time, and watch time leads to ads
twitter.com
twitter.com
IIUC, the author is saying that divisive (i.e. controversial?) videos lead to longer watch times. Longer watch times lead to more ad breaks. More ad breaks leads to Youtube making more money. Videos with longer watch times are recommended over videos with shorter watch times (because Youtube makes more money that way). Thus, divisive topics are recommended over non-divisive topics.
But pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit are two sides of the same coin. Given that Brexit won we could even conclude that the anti-Brexit stance was more divisive (controversial?). So I'm not sure what the author is saying.
Again, to avoid a flame war, I'm not trying to make a political point. I'm just trying to follow the author's logic. What makes pro-Brexit videos more likely to be selected that couldn't also be utilised in an anti-Brexit stance?
The videos in favour of Remain weren't divisive, because being in favour of Remain is the moral, right-thinking stance.
Anti-Brexit is the status quo. It's by definition not controversial since they can't do anything other than advocate for how things currently are.
Pro-Brexit is by definition controversial since they were advocating for a complete upheaval in the relationship with the EU constructed over decades. And it was always going to be tinged with xenophobia and nationalism since that was the entire premise for the Brexit vote to begin with. And it doesn't get any more divisive than xenophobia.
The rest of your post is political fervor on your view of the vote and not related to whether YouTube's algorithms promoted divisiveness in all forms instead of just the one you don't like.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_European_Union_...
So, in the spirit of democracy, where the desires of all those who /can/ vote (not just those who /do/ vote) are respected, it is probably interesting to examine why voters do and do not find the motivation to vote. Hypothetically, if we had mind-reading devices, and motivation was not a prerequisite for voting, which side of the vote would have benefited?
Asymmetrical motivation is the hypothesis that in referenda where Action/No-Action are the choices, there will be more voter motivation for Action rather than No-Action. This very reasonably applies to Brexit.
I think it's perfectly fair to say that videos from both sides evoked similar passion. We can argue whether it's "good" passion or "bad" passion, but I can't see what difference it makes. Why would I watch a pro-Brexit video for a longer time than an anti-Brexit video, based on topic alone (i.e. assuming that both videos were equally effective in addressing their audience)?
Not necessarily.
For example, recommending videos that are somehow categorized "pro-evolutionary theory" would almost certainly be less divisive than recommending Creationist videos that attempt to "debunk" evolutionary theory. The pro-evolutionary theory videos would typically be substantive scientific talks or lectures that require patience and critical thinking in order to understand. The Creationist videos, on the other hand, typically use lots of underhanded tactics. They will attempt to mislead the viewer and typically throw out so many different arguments from so many disparate fields that it's impossible for any one person to debunk them all out of hand.
If you recommend the "pro-evolution" videos you probably end up with a lot of bored viewers who don't even make it through a single video. If you recommend the "anti-evolution" videos then you'll get a biologist debunking point 1 of 100 and a troglodyte responding "what about point 2-100?"
I have no clue whether the pro/anti Brexit videos fit that bill. But it's certainly a possibility.
So, no, it isn't really like one group claiming a falsehood to be material fact while another claims the negation of that falsehood to be a material fact. (Material fact as opposed to moral fact)
Them: “We should leave because then they’ll give us a great deal.”
Me: “But they can’t give you a better deal.”
Them: “That just proves we should leave!”
This person has a Cambridge degree, yet this topic allowed them to mix up hopes and preferences with objective economic benefits and end up with cult-like thinking where the conclusion was kept despite the negation of the argument just used to reach it.
From time to time, I ponder their mistake and ask if I have made a similar one of my own.
I once worked with a brilliant physicist. One day he went off on a holiday and when he came back I asked him how it went. "Terrible", he said. It turned out that his plan was to drive from Winnipeg (which is right smack in the middle of Canada) to Vancouver (on the west coast) in a day. Then he was going to drive down the coast to Los Angeles the next day, do some sight seeing and find a hotel. Then we was going to drive to Las Vegas the next day, and gamble for the rest of the day. Finally he was going to drive back to Winnipeg the next day. He made it from Winnipeg to Moose Jaw before he gave up.
"When I looked at the map of North America in my map book, it was the same size as the map of Germany, so I thought they were the same size in real life", was the excuse.
Regarding the person themselves, when it came to subjective questions — philosophical sensation of self, where I rather than they wanted to live, if cyclists (they didn’t cycle) preferred cars to overtake quickly or slowly — this person tended to have the “used to being right” hubris that you described.
There's a LOT of very low-brow, fast-food content on the "left", too. Videos that just makes fun of how stupid anti-vaxxers are, generate outrage about global warming while being very light on scientific data and hard of apocaliptic imaging, generate fear and anxiety about the rise of fascism and nazism, repeating the idea that Trump is literally Hitler and Theresa May is his Mussolini...
I'm not trying to make any point about whether those things are true or false, by the way. Just about the level of propaganda and emotional manipulation on both sides.
Brexit may not be the best example, because (perhaps, arguably) there could be legitimate arguments for the pro-Brexit stance.
Vaccination might be a better illustration.
Promulgating the view that "vaccines are a hoax, and vaccinating your child will cause autism, or let the government achieve mind control" is both incorrect (scientifically, factually) and wrong (morally). Those convinced by this view put their child and other children around their child at grave risk.
A system that promotes this view over the established, normative, scientifically validated consensus view that we should vaccinate our children, to the point that it changes opinions and behavior, is harmful to public discourse (and harmful to children).
This is true whether automated/algorithmic, or intentionally devised and operated by people with malevolent intent.
At scale, these phonomena become harmful to democracy itself. Democracies are diminished when their subjects believe false information, especially objectively harmful false information whose belief causes disease, stuctural collapse of infrastructure, etc.
Since we are now observing this happening to various extents in various areas of society, we should use our power as democratic citizens to compel operators such as YouTube to provide real data on what their algorithms are selecting, so that we can understand the effect on our society.
At least, that's what I got out of his tweet.
Perhaps your algorithm isn't buggy just because the democratic process didn't produce your desired outcome.
For instance imagine leave lost and chose to play the same game. In mid April 2016 Obama blew to the UK to try to do a mixture of evangelizing against Brexit and implicitly threatening the leave position as well by suggesting that Britan would be 'at the back of the queue' in any future US trade deals if Brexit passed. And one can only imagine the thousands, if not millions, of pro-remain posts and topics shared on social media by people outside of Britain. Of course these ended up being completely pointless and Obama's visit actually ended up strengthening the leave position, but cast in a different light these sort of externalities could be used to try to argue for undue and undemocratic influences that led to the result of the election. But it's revisionism.
The engineers (and friends) who built these systems are wildly successful, and as often happens in these cases, they now feel guilty about that success, especially when they're surrounded by so much human suffering (in a place like SF), which pushes them in a progressive direction.
But now they've discovered that the systems they built had unintended consequences and may have even led to the very success of the political ideologies they despise.
The cognitive dissonance working at a place like Twitter must be palpable. Trump probably drives more revenue to the company than any other person, and yet probably 90+% of the employees who work there despise the man and everything he stands for.
So you can see why so many people are on-board with trying to do something about it. But the same poorly-thought-out, gung-ho attitude which led to algorithms no one understands anymore, will backfire when they try to "correct" them.
Social engineering is a dangerous game. This country is a time bomb just waiting to go off and when Silicon Valley finally pulls the plug on Trump there's no telling where it will end.
(though I do think things have calmed down a little in the last couple years... we'll see where they end up after the midterms...)
While (2) is definitely worse, I don't think (1) is that much better. It's unreasonable to expect an algorithm to be totally impartial and trying will only lead to more unintended consequences.
Perhaps this is the true evil of advertising-centric revenue models: they put corporate monopolies in charge of swaying the biggest decisions we as citizens can make, the ones that run our societies and our lives.
Privacy, transparency, mental health, etc. for the end user are all important, but in day-to-day life, these considerations pale in comparison to the sheer power these corporations have acquired in steering world affairs.
If they just chose more responsible business models, this wouldn't be happening.
> If they just chose more responsible business models, this wouldn't be happening.
No effort on social change that requires that corporations voluntary forego profit (or that requires that individuals forego status) will ever work, nor should it. Everyone talks about what behavior should be, but nobody wants to talk about the sort of incentive structure that would produce that behavior.
People are just now realizing how harmful these services are & just how extensive their powers are. At the same time, there are a bunch of new services popping up that offer to spread power more equally with structures that are more distributed by design.
I think it will take time (like, maybe a decade or two)...but today's dominant services will die out through a combination of terrible events and user-hostile moves, and new services will emerge that build on the lessons learned. It might seem unthinkable right now, but I think the right dynamics are in place to make it happen in the near-future.
Fundamentally, there is a lot of content out there. So much so, that it is necessary to have some algorithm assist in curation. Any algorithm you choose will favor certain types of content over others (unless you literally choose randomly, in which case you aren't really solving the original problem). The question is what should that algorithm be optimizing for. We have seen what problems optimizing for ad revenue causes; but I see no reason to think that optimizing for some other metric wouldn't produce a comparable class of problems.
Ultimatly, the problem of algorithmic curation is a new problem, and no one has a good answer for it. Whatever answer we pick will have significant influence on the public discourse, because so much of said discourse is filtered through the algorithm.
But of course this leads to what I think is the real problem: network effects. The reason people use YouTube is because people use YouTube. What I said above is true in a world with sufficient competition, but YouTube has no meaningful competition. They constantly hurt their content creators but the creators stay there nonetheless because YouTube has the users. And YouTube has the users because YouTube has the content creators.
---
By focusing on the content curation as the issue, I think we take a monopoly as granted. But there are ways you could help enable competition such as by removing barriers to content delivery. Imagine a public content delivery network where whitelisted providers (just to avoid it being used for unlawful content) can stream from. Pair this with rules against exclusivity for free content delivery services, and some way for content creators who upload the content to the service to cleanly opt in to allow their content to be used by various services for some standard contract (%revenue, one-off fee, etc), and away we go.
Very off the cuff idea, but the idea is just to help foster more competition.
Sad, but true.
The goal of their Algorithm is to maximize for watch time. Any behavior that leads to longer watch time will be promoted.
If a user watches 2 videos, leaves the platform for a while then comes back later to watch a third, the system will have learned what video to suggest to another person who watched only the first two. If the system can't determine what to show next, it will choose the video that has a record of increasing watch time.
Working inside of YouTube, he was in a position to see that the algorithms heavily promoted Brexit. However, for people not directly involved in YouTube's operations, this is not necessarily apparent — and is essentially impossible to check.
His point is that the ultimate outcomes of this algorithmic selection has potentially massive societal repercussions, and therefore the citizenry deserves to know what is being selected for promotion.
I'd bet something along the lines of "absolute_value(upvotes divided by total votes - 50%)" is a feature somewhere. That's how I interpreted OP.
Assuming, of course, one believes in the myth of the informed voting public.
They have to at least believe in the desire to be informed. I agree with your point and optimizing for eyeballs means you're gonna optimize for what people want to see. But as we've seen lately, if that machine driven optimization goes against the wishes of the squeakier of the wheels, it is considered intentional favoritism or at best negligence. Internet advertising is the popular scapegoat these days when cognitive dissonance amongst the loud is all that remains.
When the citizens don't and can't know what YouTube is playing for people, they can't really object.
On the other hand, if the data was there and enough citizens were interested for somebody to analyze the data, then we could know: Oh, during the 6 weeks leading up to the Brexit vote, among the top 1000 videos X% strongly advocated for, Y% strongly advocated against, Z% didn't fit into strong advocacy. Oh, and, this false disproven pro-Brexit piece from Boris Johnson was played 18,960,000 times to an estimated 14,000,000 unique viewers.
That would provide another vector of incentive/consequence that content promoters — algorithmic or otherwise — would have to factor into their decisions.
I think this would also help with the other, extremely related problem of "algorithmic child abuse" described by the viral article "Something is wrong on the internet" from last year[1].
As we shift from a mass broadcast media landscape (TV, radio, print), increasing algorithmic content selection has huge implications, for society, democracy, children, etc.
Because each person (or child) potentially receives their own custom-tailored feed of content (articles, videos) and ads, it is extremely difficult to, first of all, _know what is actually happening_. (That is, what is being shown to the public, or in the second case, what is being shown to individual kids.)
This makes it effectively impossible to hold these companies accountable for what they are choosing to show people.
I am sure that these companies would fight tooth and nail to prevent such legislation from being enacted, and I am not confident that the collapsing democratic institutions in my own country (USA) are even capable of doing so. It's a pretty hard thing to legislate.
Even if the rule was something like each user's account had to make accessible, somewhere, the complete history of content and advertising selected for display for that user. Then, scientists and journalists could at least use random sampling of people, get their data, and do analysis that way. Although probably, with micro-targeting of individuals, we would also need the global totals for each content item or ad to also be available.
I think algorithmic selection has the potential to so terrible because it is happening in the dark. There are very few consequences for bad behavior when it is known only to the "victims".
Especially if they don't think they are victims; e.g., my young kids when they're watching the grotesque algorithmically generated videos of their favorite video game characters that YouTube suggests for them — my personal introduction to this entire topic. If you haven't seen it before, I recommend the below-linked article to anybody with children, or who just wants to think more about the implications of algorithmic/ML content selection.
[1] https://medium.com/@jamesbridle/something-is-wrong-on-the-in...
However I will keep it here as a prediction of future events.