yeah I had a very strong skeptical attitude while reading the article. For me, it raises some flags when it's alleged the author is in the business of selling prediction markets, you are gonna read only the good parts.

I find it hard to believe that a prediction market will be able to outperform hedge funds. It's an open secret that insider trading is rampant despite SEC enforcement, so unless those hedge funds are participating in these prediction markets, it's hard to put any value especially at this early stage.

I can definitely see a use for internal opinions, like, do we need a new CEO? and then putting the equilibrium forces of an efficient market to work. Best Buy tried it and I'm not sure if it's still being used decade later.