We ARE that far. Any deep fakes you see in the wild are the hobbyists applying the tech to the lowest common denominator. There are professional state sponsored groups creating serious fake video, easily manipulating presence of people at news worthy incidents.
Like those janky Bin Laden videos from a few years back?
I think you misunderstood my comment. The comment I replied to said we are far from realistic fakes. I was saying "are we really that far from realistic fakes?", not "are we really that far along?"