I think the "outsmarted" part is absolutely correct to an extent. They definitely saw an opportunity that an entire industry didn't. They have absolutely changed the direction of television in pretty much all respects, from release cycle, to delivery to even marketing. However, I think the issues that Netflix has largely encountered now that others are catching on are a result of them not pushing hard enough. It's readily apparent that Hastings and his team saw this opportunity, and were in perfect position to capitalize on it but they didn't show enough faith in the model to make the sorts of long term bets that could have built them an unassailable moat. You get all these shows for whatever crazy amount that no one else would pay but you do relatively short term deals? Certainly Netlfix was ready when the deals started to expire to go all in on original content to replace the stuff they lost, but knowing that the major networks were going to come at you hard once they realized the opportunity they had signed away why wouldn't you push for longer deals? I recognize the sheer economics of the issue but outside of the originals Netflix is losing all the things that originally brought people to the service. If they did 10-15 years it would have been impossible for anyone to catch them as they are doing now.