That's one design cycle == 10x improvement.
So not unreasonable within the context of the history of the industry.
The proof will be in the product when it ships.
Glad we cleared that up.
Here's the last two companies to spout this line of garbage: Transmeta and SiByte. Remember them?
Your statement implies that the Intel engineers have left a lot of design on the table. I assure you, this hasn't been true for quite a long time (circa 1996, arguably, but certainly not since 2000--that's why both Transmeta and SiByte failed).
The simple answer to this is: graph the active area vs power consumed for all the chips of a particular technology node. Unless Intel is significantly below that line, you're not going to beat them by much.
The Mill folks would rather argue that Intel's problem is they aren't leaving things on the table—instead, they're shoving tons of extra machinery into their core designs while the Mill tries to avoid extremely power-hungry performance enhancing techniques like speculative out of order execution.
> graph the active area vs power consumed for all the chips of a particular technology node
Setting aside the difficulties of accounting for differences between different manufacturer's processes at the same node, this still isn't a very informative measure. Active areas of the chip don't all make the same contribution to performance. Speculative execution can light up a lot of silicon executing instructions that don't actually need to be executed.
I'm quite skeptical that the Mill guys will ever produce a core that beats Intel on raw performance, but they have plenty of convincing arguments for why their power consumption will be much lower, and I think it's plausible that they will be able to beat Intel on performance per watt for some workloads.
Go look at Alpha 21164 vs x86 in the timeframe. You don't save as much as you think (and Intel's designs were much shoddier back then).
> Setting aside the difficulties of accounting for differences between different manufacturer's processes at the same node, this still isn't a very informative measure.
You would think so, but the graph is remarkably consistent. Just because a measure has noise does not make it a useless measure.
Intel could be significantly below the curve. But beating the curve is ferociously difficult.
When you say the CPU do you mean a working ASIC? Some simulation? Or a plan to make one?
And how do you compare them if they have completely different instructions set?