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Comment by Judgmentality | Hacker News Reader

...they go into orbit?

While I'm a big believer that we're going to see a big correction in the next couple of years (the kind that will make 2008 look like a foreshock), nobody knows how much higher the market can go and for how long. Maybe it will still be going up before I die.

The conventional wisdom is to never try to time the market. Buy and hold, and in the long run you'll make money.

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> Buy and hold, and in the long run you'll make money.

Is that where Bitcoin's HODL "wisdom" comes from?

Also, don't bet on one horse.

That's why you should buy a fund/ETF tracking the All Country World Index.

I agree. I'm still waiting on my dogecoins to make me a millionaire!

Yes, but a good number of individual investors will pour money into the markets only when things get super frothy and exciting (i.e. at the peak) and then freak out and pull all their money out of the markets when we see a huge downturn.

And those people are the reason everyone else says not to do that, not to time the market, and to invest for the long term. If you stick to an established plan, adjust your allocation according to that plan, and don't panic sell, historically you will have always come out ahead.

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-...

Correct, but I think this is easier said than done sometimes - especially if you've only been investing during a huge bull market. As Mike Tyson once said, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face."

All the more reason to constantly tell people the right thing to do and why and strategies to avoid letting fear and other emotions get the better of them in those situations. We can all be susceptible to such things, but with a little education and discipline can avoid making terrible mistakes like that.

Not really, regardless of the state of the market, you are probably better off keeping your stock than selling it.

This seems true, however the following quote is worth mentioning:

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/

The important thing the linked article shows is that even if you're always investing right before crashes the market still trends upwards and you still come out ahead — as long as you don't panic sell.

Of course, there is a difference of how much ahead. If you would have invested few months later you could have come much more ahead.

Yes. If you can (accurately) predict the future you can make a hell of a lot of money far faster than 43 years with out of the money options.

Out of the money options are really risky if there is a pullback. ITM options 30-45 DTE can you make tons of money.

As Warren Buffet once observed, the stock market is just a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

Or the desperate to the well-bufferred.

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