For example, a sentiment like:
"A history of buybacks has a positive long-term effect on stock prices, because investors like buybacks."
becomes
"A history of dividends has a positive long-term effect on stock prices, because investors like dividends."
At that point, you're left with the somewhat valid 10% of the argument: trading in the open market causes short term price moves. Is there is any evidence that the SEC is insufficiently vigilant against, say, any executives who exercise options around the buybacks? If so, that does constitute manipulation by the executives and negligence by the regulators! If not, the SEC is doing its job. The opinion piece makes Rule 10b-18 out to be some kind of backroom deal, whereas this is the SEC doing its job: clarifying the law with enough precision that everyone is playing by the same rules. The SEC is charged with making & reassessing these rules. For example, if they thought that 25% of ADV makes too much noise and is bad for the market, they can tweak the parameters.
Some reactions to other sentiments on this thread:
> I wish more big stocks... paid regular dividends instead of buybacks
Money is money. It doesn't matter whether you feel paid; it matters that a buyback does in fact pay you a dividend.
> This is orthogonal to worker pay
Bingo. This discussion is orthogonal to important questions of unequal opportunities or outcomes, or of redistribution, or the growth of intra-national inequality (while incidentally, things have become more equal inter-nation).
The difference is a buyback only turns into money if you sell.
The decision to perform stock buy-backs could be an indication of the general pessimism that corporations have about the economy. If consumer debt is at an all time hight, how can we find more people to buy the products we are making? We tried giving people more debt than they could handle (mortgages) and that ended in spectacular disaster in 2008. So maybe the only thing corporations can do to increase value is to rely on buying back stocks! Makes a lot of money for some people..
That said, I actually think his theory is a reasonable one and I'm more confused by comments on HN like this one. It sounds like you're saying essentially (1) your buddies disagree and they know better, and (2) buybacks may help the economy overall because they move cash from less efficient businesses into more efficient ones.
Are you saying that the company buying its own shares is doing so because it's not very efficient? Shouldn't efficiency be reflected in the price of a business due to market forces? If the only place a company can find to put extra cash is buying out its own shares then that doesn't sound like a valuable business to me, and in a healthy market I would expect the price to go down, not up.
Now, I am happy to change my point of view when I am unable or haven't the time to learn a topic more on depth even if I don't fully understand the details or resolutions of apparent superficial paradoxes. But when even basic explanations from an author defy logical sense - not a lack of domain knowledge - it raises a red flag for me. I'm not going to suspend critical thinking to entertain the fallacy of authority. I only cite the counterarguments I cite because even in their simplicity they demonstrate gaps in the case the author is making. I am more than happy to have someone better versed give a better account for why buybacks are worse than, say, sitting on cash or dividends.
By the way, I managed to find a really good piece on Bloomberg that lays out both sides in a pretty objective way: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-08/apple-s-s...
I'm no expert, but I feel like sitting on cash isn't as terrible a thing as people pretend. Cash encourages risk taking and innovation. The more cash you have, the bigger risks you can take. Nintendo keeps a lot of cash around and they're one of the most consistently innovative game companies. Sometimes their products flop (Wii U), but sometimes they're wild successes (Switch).
It's like Congress agreeing to raise their own pay. Is it rational? Not really, but who among them, the people making the decision on government spending, would disagree with this move? Maybe one or two with principals, but not many.
EDIT: Is it rational for the sake of the overall system I mean. It's obviously rational from the perspective of those increasing their own wealth.
The remarks about efficiency also seem to be an outcome, not a motivation. Cash in the hands of investors should always be more efficient than cash in the corporate treasury.
The market (i.e. the shareholders getting the cash) is a better mechanism at finding new investments than the executive leadership at the widget company. As a widget company investor I invest in their widget making skills, not their skills in essentially starting new businesses.
Going down from where to where? If I had a money printing machine that produces one million dollars each day, how is that not a valuable business? (Of course if I knew how to build a second machine for a few billion dollars the business would be even more valuable.)
> Lazonick’s research has focused on the role of the innovative business enterprise in generating productivity and sharing these gains with employees as the foundation for stable and equitable economic growth.
The idealized enterprise value of a firm changes not one whit whether capital is returned to investors via a dividend or a stock buy back. There could conceivably be small differences in transaction costs between the two, but in practice, they’re very similar.
Generally, the enterprise value of large amounts of cash for most firms is less-than-par, because investors fear management making vanity purchases that destroy value. So long term investors are much happier if capital is returned, and much happier if the method of return is via stock buy back.
If you've got mountains of free cash, there are a lot more exciting opportunities out there. You can afford to make higher-risk/higher-reward investments. You can buffer yourself from that next surprise recall/product failure/fulfillment problem. You can make sure you have a stake in anything that looks like it could someday be an existential threat.
There’s a reason (many) successful companies don’t just go off and become massive conglomerates attempting to pursue every idea any executive has.
Areas where the board feels it has a competitive advantage, an investment opportunity, and enough management capacity to oversee the new investment are not, in fact, dime a dozen.
The principal agent problem is real and relevant for every organization of any size.
Anyone targeting a specific PE for a company will sell the stock to counter the increase as the cash balance (and PE) decreases.
To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple also compensated some high-value non-engineers in stock. To find the actual number of people who benefit, you would have to include them, plus you would have to add in all the people who don't work at Apple but own Apple stock directly or indirectly (for example, while I don't work at Apple, I probably own some stock because of my participation in a mutual fund).
I'm pretty certain that there are tens of thousands of people who see an increase in earnings because of Apple buybacks. The majority of them might be well-off since they are engineers or have the luxury of purchasing mutual funds, but I am hardly a millionaire or billionaire.
EDIT: Did more Googling; Apple's stock jumped around 12% after announcing their buyback, so the bonus is around 3%. I would love a $6000 bonus/year for the next few years. [0]
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/05/12/what-impa... [0]
General consensus I've seen on Blind is that FANG engineers take in about half their wages in stocks, but that includes multiple years of RSU refreshers and appreciation.
But there's another way to think about it: buyback money isn't that much different than a dividend where people self-sort into who wants the money now versus later. Apple approved a 100B buyback program in May, and 4,915,138,000 shares outstanding. 20 bucks a share. Most offers I've seen on blind are around $100k of shares, so for AAPL at today's market close price that'd be $9300 dollars returned. Probably a bit more given they're at an all time high and the announcement was a few months prior.
So the 12 percent figure kinda makes sense: 10 percent or so of the shares announced to be retired via, and a 2 percent jump is explainable via typical earnings.
I doubt you'd find an engineer paid in RSUs who wanted to end buyback programs, but maybe one will pop up on HN and enlighten us.
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0.0785%25+*+1+trillion+...
These one time increases and whatever other bread crumbs that get handed out are sculpted to feel good at that moment, but pale in comparison to the truck that's going to hit them down the road when the completely unnecessary government budget deficit as a result of tax relief for the rich starts eating away bit by bit at the government and country. This isn't hyperbole. This is history repeating itself.
Apple has an Employee Stock Purchase Program, where you can automatically invest some percentage of your salary (I forget what) into Apple stock, which gets purchased on your behalf every few months at a discounted price. It's a pretty nice program and it means anyone who takes advantage of it (which really should be every employee who isn't living paycheck-to-paycheck) will benefit from an increase in the stock price.
Why is this undesirable? Simple. Lower and middle class workers drive the economy with their consumption. If they don't have stability, they don't spend. If they don't spend, the velocity of money through the economy decreases. You want workers to feel comfortable spending, and the only way to do that is by giving them stability along with a fair wage.
It's possible it would be if it was more tax advantageous to pay workers then to pay out profits as buybacks through the most recent tax cuts. Clearly, taxes matter in corporate decision making, as large multinationals were keeping their cash offshore as long as possible, waiting for a tax holiday.
Social security, workplace safety, overtime ... all just magically appeared, correct?
Because maybe, again, just maybe, I'm being dense, but I don't think "skillsets" were ever a limiting factor for those who spearheaded unionization. "skillsets" are a facet of the bourgeoisie labor market, which I say as a firm capitalist. It's always been those at the bottom who have fought for worker's rights.
No. It took capitalism—more precisely, the resulting accumulation of human wealth and technology—for child labor to disappear. It disappeared when it became economically unnecessary for children to work:
http://atlanticsentinel.com/2011/01/did-government-end-child...
I am continually surprised by the number of people who seem to be under the impression that the default state of nature is one of abundance rather than scarcity. Why do you think children had to work in the first place?
The rate workers are paid depends on the market for their skills and what retention the company wants. Worker pay will increase as the economy heats up and causes the labor pool to tighten.