You have 7 years to learn Mandarin
money.cnn.com
money.cnn.com
"China was the largest economy for centuries because everyone had the same type of economy - subsistence - and so the country with the most people would be economically biggest. Then the Industrial Revolution sent the West on a more prosperous path. Now the world is returning to a common economy, this time technology- and information-based, so once again population triumphs."
The exuberance for Japan 20 years ago was a bubble, and as such it was based on a lot of irrational assumptions: The Japanese had better business models, more productive workers, better work culture, etc. However, the advocates for China's rise are just counting on one, objective indicator; they outnumber us.
Japan has to import pretty much everything they need to keep their economy running. The Japanese population is also about half that of the United States, and during their boom years, there was such a massive problem in finding skilled workers that the Japanese government had to turn a blind eye to the sheer number of illegal immigrants flooding in from the rest of southeast Asia.
The Japanese also care very deeply about nature; I have never seen a polluted stream or a park covered in litter there, and I've spent a decent amount of time in the country. Of course, this is one of the bits of Japanese culture that I rather love. grin
So, Japan could have probably swallowed the U.S., if they weren't so dependent on imports; it puts a limit to how high their economy can really go.
China has a wealth of natural resources, and more than enough skilled workers. China also doesn't care one iota about their ecology, which is why Beijing is not a city to live in if you're a fan of air, or water -- it's also worth noting that, sanitation-wise, mainland China is still very much a third-world country.
But unlike Japan, China doesn't need to be importing and exporting to keep their economy going; they've got so much work to do in their own country that they've got growth potential out the wazoo.
That said, China is rapidly becoming a toxic wasteland, and I'm curious how well the Chinese business system (all businesses being government entities) will scale; this goes double, given how the culture promotes rampant cronyism and incredible corruption.
Well, we live in interesting times. :)
A Japanese beach, though, is a giant ash tray.
Unless you plan to relocate to China or Asia, I think most people considering language study would be better off learning a programming language. I am a proficient Mandarin speaker, and while it helped me greatly when I lived in Taiwan, it has done nothing for my career in the United States, except for a single nibble from a software company that needed a bilingual project manager (they ended up hiring a native speaker).
or not soon...
"Someone once said that learning Chinese is "a five-year lesson in humility". I used to think this meant that at the end of five years you will have mastered Chinese and learned humility along the way. However, now having studied Chinese for over six years, I have concluded that actually the phrase means that after five years your Chinese will still be abysmal, but at least you will have thoroughly learned humility."
A good question for you, is how has your life as an ABC impacted your relationships with people from the mainland? I've heard that ABCs are looked down upon as being almost subhuman by a lot of Mainlanders.
As for learning Mandarin? Hey, go for it, but I doubt it'll be crucial. English is very entrenched at this point, and it's not really about the USA anymore. English became entrenched because of the British Empire/US ascendency, but now it's just a convenient standard for the 21st century. I've read that several European companies are so diverse that it's easier to just use English than German, French, Swedish, regardless of location. Scientific conferences in Asia use English even when the audience doesn't contain a single American, Brit, or Australian.
Nobody does this out of some deep respect for English - they do it because it's convenient. Everyone educated these days becomes literate in their own native language + English, and preferably some other language as well.
That said, this is not necessarily a bad thing; in fact, maybe it's a good chance for the U.S. to get back to its economic roots and actually start producing something again, with an exchange rate that favors exports and a skilled local labor pool.
Except I have read that about a zillion times before...
Just gives me a thought: maybe it would make sense to create two fake identities, one who predicts China becomes a superpower, and one who predicts that it is doomed. Then, whichever turns out to be true, you can officially assume that identity and be hailed as a prophet.
For sure they the most populous with 1.5 billions; it’s a big market of people to sell stuff to and unlimited cheap labor;
Here is my point 1.5 billions with a middle class (by world standards) of few millions, a large majority under the poverty level (by all standards), the shared revenue per head is as low as most poor countries. Is China powerful because of its population only?
Personally I think China will pull the whole world economy down the more it opens to the world (it’s already started with Gas and food); the growth will be tempered by humanitarian need.
Put aside the option of a bunch of cheap labor China is still globally a very poor country and not yet in the position to make mandarin a great commodity.
Somehow, I don't think the author has thought very hard about this. The value of the building isn't labor plus materials -- it's not like he'd make the same argument about putting it in the Gobi desert. It's possible to estimate the proper exchange rate, and use this to estimate China's actual GDP.
Culture tends to spread based on economic supremacy. It has done in the past, do you have a reason to think it won't here beyond the language barrier?
obv the white western world is not gonna reign over the whole world forever.
lets jsut ope they treat us better than weve treated them.
any hope for democracy in China in the near future?
will it happen as they grow wealthier?
i mean it can ahrdly be called communism anymore, more like fascism now(not that thats any better).