Unless someone invents teleportation, what we have currently for transportation infrastructure is probably as good as it will get, with possibly hyper local, minimal improvements.
Unless someone invents teleportation, what we have currently for transportation infrastructure is probably as good as it will get, with possibly hyper local, minimal improvements.
The other major consumer of rail in the US is freight and they don't generally need high speed rail, and so while I would enjoy having more high speed rail lines as an option I haven't been able to rationalize the use case. Private rail permits use by passenger rail but does not prioritize for it.
Here was a good slide deck that I had been using as reference for a while that has good data on how Amtrak exists at all: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/Planning/freight_planning/talking_f...
I wouldn't ignore the routes that connect Chicago to the rest of the Midwest:
- Route, FY2015 Passengers, ~Distance (miles)
- Chicago – St. Louis, 576,705, 295
- Chicago – Milwaukee, 799,271, 92
- Chicago – Pontiac via Detroit 465,627, 280
These numbers are despite the truly awful experience, in many cases, of waiting long periods for freight traffic to pass. These distances are in the sweet-spot for HSR, which could be quite popular on these routes.
The long pole for speed is lower speed limits in some parts of the route for the benefit of neighbors living along the tracks. Those politics are unlikely to be affected by the technical infrastructure.
At ~90 minutes, the journey from Milwaukee is better than the commute from many parts of Chicagoland.
It's a shame that the NEC hasn't been brought up to higher speeds than 125mph, but that's largely a function of the remediation needed to do that costing serious money [1] and the politics of infrastructure disbursement not favoring doling out cash to favor largely the NYC area.
[1] You need, at a minimum, new track with less curves in most of suburban of CT; new Hudson River tunnels; new Portal Bridge; at least a third track in the MD-DE stretch (including a new bridge on the Susquehanna); and replacement of the B&P tunnel, whose condition was "this needs to be replaced" when Amtrak was started and has degraded to "how hasn't this failed yet?"
Seriously this would transform the state. Make all the tech talent in Austin available to energy companies in Houston. Integrate the tech talent market for Austin and DFW. And the land over which the rail would be built is pretty flat as well.
What is this based on? Certainly there have been many studies. Also, to be clear, Acela is not HSR by that definition.
I can imagine many other places: Florida, then north to Atlanta and west to New Orleans, and then connecting to Texas. DC down to NC, then Atlanta, then connecting to Florida. Vancouver (with some international cooperation) to Seattle to Portland to the Bay Area, connecting to the rest of California. A Midwest network of St Louis, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Detroit, Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, Pittsburgh (connecting to the east coast via Philadelphia), and north from Detroit to Toronto and Montreal. Las Vegas and Phoenix might want a connect to the California network.
You also need to have evidence of strong existing demand between city pairs (this is basically Florida's problem; there's just not enough travel between its major cities), and you also want a decent urban mass transit system (this is where Texas suffers).
Hitting 220mph service needs dedicated track--you can't mix trains of different speed regimes on the same track without very strict schedule reliability, and the US just doesn't have that reliability. 125mph is more doable, if you have ample opportunity to do the passing, although you still need better reliability than the US sees now. The Midwest just doesn't have the demand to justify building dedicated track, so it's not worth 220mph service.
Yes, Acela is not true HSR, and it's a crying shame because the NEC is the best, or very nearly the best, place in the world to put HSR. But outside of the NEC, the US is simply too big, and its major cities simply too far apart from each other, to put HSR in.
I think that the securitization and sell off of these mortgage backed securities were the banks trying to pass the hot potato off onto somebody else. They knew it would blow up, only the financially illiterate, and busybody do-gooders in government with a regulatory gun to the banks heads didn't see it coming with predictable results.
"No executive of a major mortgage company said at the time that the government was forcing them to make subprime loans. They said they did it because they thought they would make money. And even now, after the crash of the housing market, with all the temptation to point fingers, it is awfully hard to find a mortgage executive who echoes the argument"
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/us/politics/the-role-of-r...
Before the crisis, people figured out that if you bundled a lot of them together and sliced up the bundle in clever ways, you could shuffle the risk around and manage it better. People who wanted riskier assets could get them, and people who wanted safer assets with lower returns could get them too.
Except this only works if you actually evaluate the risk correctly. If you underestimate the potential for large-scale default due to, say, a sudden drop in house prices, then everything gets screwed up, and people who bought “safe” assets suddenly find themselves losing their investment.
Anyone pushing that narrative is trying to pushing a implicitly racist 'reason' for the financial crisis: "it was all them loans to the black people that did it" .
It was demand for mortgage-backed securities (viewed as traditionally safe assets for investment) from investment funds that led to more and more lenient mortgage qualifications to increase supply, weakening the previous strength of those securities overall that, through layers of financial indirection (see tranches), were not valued correctly until too late (with the subsequent credit default swap responsibilities crippling interbank loaning).
This was targeted predatory lending, often targeted at people who already had home equity in some form. This was not something significantly exacerbated by the FHA.
The bulk of the interstate highway system was built between 1960 and 1980.
The percentage of GDP collected as income taxes is about the same then as it is now. In fact, the top 1% paid less of the total taxes during the New Deal than now.[1]
[1]http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2017/08/07/the_history_o...
- During WWI it peaked at 77% - During WWII it peaked at 94%!!
Capital gains -- the rate the upper class actually pays -- has never risen above 35% at the federal level. And that's within a few points of 2018 marginal rates when we factor in state level taxes for places like California. The tax moved from federal to state (or to earmarked federal, like NIIT)
Capital gains:
1945: 35% federal + 6% state = 41%
2018: 25% federal + 3.8% NIIT + 13.1% state = 41.9%
Prior to losing SALT, wealthy Californians paid slightly lower marginal rates than in 1945. Trump's changes cause the current marginal tax rate for wealthy Californians to be higher than in 1945 -- the year you're calling out as a peak.
No one really paid 94%.
https://toomuchonline.org/the-tax-that-turned-ronald-reagan-...
...a rate which almost nobody actually paid, given the copious methods for reducing tax liability available at the time (most of which have since been eliminated).
It'll likely be the same for high-speed rail, hyperloops, and under-city tunnels. Once we're at war again there will be a huge incentive to be able to move large quantities of people across the country within hours, and ideally do so out of the reach of aerial bombardment.
It would be nice if we could do this without blowing everything up, though.
Please don't make the mistake of equating the hyperloop scheme with reputable and tried-and-true railway services. Hyperloop is at best a marketing gimmick based on naive and ill-informed notions of what it takes to run a vehicle in a track, while real railway services are mundane technologies which have been proven to work for at least half a century.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Gould
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Transcontinental_Railroa...
Cynicism masquerades as wisdom, but it is not wisdom. A cynic is not merely one who reads bitter lessons from the past; he is one who is prematurely disappointed in the future. The future can be better than the past. According to the data it has been [1][2][3]. So optimism isn't a fluffy ideal to scoff at.
Newton's laws make it clear that approaching vacuum allows for greater speeds. An object in motion will remain in motion unless an outside force acts upon it [4]. Therefore, the greater part of truth is out of reach of cynicism.
What is more likely, that a man who heads a company that works in the space sector would think that moving through a near-vacuum was honestly more efficient [5]? Or that he would propose it merely as a marketing gimmick? And why can't it be both?
[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCm9Ng0bbEQ
[2]: https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_and_ola_rosling_how_not_to_be...
[3]: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/04/bill-gates-the-world-would-b...
[4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_laws_of_motion
[5]: https://themysteriousworld.com/top-10-fastest-man-made-objec...
The reason your infrastructure sucks is because your nation would rather spend money on war than anything else.
To be clear; I’m not blaming the actual victims of bigots and intolerants, nor do I want to remove any blame from the bigots and intolerants. I simply want to add some blame to those blindly pushing diversity without regard to who gets hurt.
Generations of abused minorities and women might beg to differ, from slavery to lynchings to internment camps to mass oppression, abused people from Germany (yes, you read that correctly), Italy, Ireland, China, Japan ... people who were Jewish, Catholic, Latino, African-American (of course), etc etc. etc. would all say otherwise. Assuming you are talking about the U.S., until 1920, women couldn't even vote. Until the approximately the generation who came of age in the 1980s, they didn't have access to most of the labor market - unless their husband gave permission (maybe that ended around the 1950s and 1960s) - and in most fields they still are excluded from the top positions and in many fields are still excluded from most positions except HR, receptionist, and organizing the office party.
EDIT: Some updates
I agree it’s not the whole story, but it’s something.
That being said, with the exception of public transit systems like the NYMTA, etc., essentially all of the rail in the US is privately owned, and was privately funded.
Government grants to railroads have a rich history. The B&O was partially owned by the state of Maryland (and had an exemption from state taxes!). Most of the western railroads were financed by the government giving them adjacent land to their tracks for free.
More seriously though: its easy to bank all your hopes on one person that seems to deliver things but this isn't how it works in real life. We need a system where its easier to plan and build infrastructure. Not to accept the system as given and wait for superheros who will fix it all by themselves.
Would it be better if we were more proactive as a society in investing in infrastructure? Sure. That doesn't detract from the fact that I like the prospects of what The Boring Company might accomplish.
The problem is not how expensive high-speed railway projects are. The problem is that in general, with a couple of notable exceptiobs, high-speed railway services are massive money drains with absolutely no viable business model.
If their natural unprofitability is compounded with infrastructure costs then the problem is further compounded.
That's the main reason why private entities routinely invest more money in some profitable projects but they stay clear of even investing in conventional railway services.
“the most traveled highway in America, spanning 1,900 miles from Miami to Maine.”
Who pays for all the roads? The gas tax doesn’t cover it.
I’d think that between Boston and at least DC, there’s a need to travel by train at 225 mph. With a little vision, it could go to Miami.