Ten Theses on Tablets
tbray.org
tbray.org
You know how people tend to forget their stupid ideas over time and think they're smarter? I just want to publicly own that I thought tablets weren't going to be a big deal before the iPad launch. I thought Apple fans would buy it, but then it wouldn't take off. I was mistaken.
I'm already starting to re-write my memory with, "Oh yeah, of course it was going to be big" so I wanted to publicly own my poor prediction before my mind conveniently rewrites itself.
Before Apple announces: Tablets are dead. Typing is just too convenient, and I don't want an underpowered laptop (which a lot of tablets were, with touch screens).
During the 1st half of the Apple announcement: This thing is ugly, and is really just a big iPhone. FAIL.
During the 2nd half of the Apple announcement: Since when did the Apple tax become the Apple discount? At those prices, I'll take two! And it slowly began dawning on me that it being a "big iPhone" was actually genius. How did so few people grok that this was the exact right thing to do? Now it's just common knowledge that upsizing your touch phone OS is a smart thing to do.
After getting my first one: Two heavy, but it was clear that at 7" the iPad is with me everywhere. Even at 10", while not ideal for me, I can see it being great for a lot of people.
The evolution on how people feel about the tablet is an interesting and complex one. I give Apple the credit for making me a believer.
5 minutes before keynote: "Well one thing we can be sure of, it's not just gonna be a big iPhone! haha"
During: "Hmmmm... it's really just a big iPhone? Kinda cool for some people I guess, but it's certainly not for me."
Later that evening, after thinking about it for a while: "Oh, of course! A big iPhone! What else would it be?"
How Android fits into that paradigm is not yet clear. Devices in this category need to be fully usable by anybody. In that respect, IMHO, Android is presently broken and fragmentation may prevent it from ever being fixed. It's no wonder that Apple is so fanatically protective of their platform.
On the con side, there's also something to be said for concentrating one's efforts on just a few offerings.
I'm sure that Apple has had numerous sizes brewing in R&D since the beginning; the big obstacle is how they'll deal with the software platform. Will devs have three form factors to target when developing iOS, or will a 6-8" iPad have the exact same ratio and resolution as the old one so that everything "just works"?
I think the divide with form factors is: does it fit in your pocket? 3-4" phone? Yes. 10"? No. 7"? Still no.
I believe there are so many more use cases for 10" that Apple didn't just pick that number out of a hat. For example, I own a Sony Reader (6"). Great for reading novels. Terrible for technical books (and, by extension, textbooks).
I can hold my iPad on one hand. Thing is though, I don't. I really don't know what the use case is for holding it one handed. It's always sitting on a table or desk, on my lap or on my chest (if lying down).
So, that means they'll have to retool the iOS UI conventions once again. Which means a third target. Universal apps will now have to have usable interfaces on iPhones, big iPads, and small iPads. It seems like a lot of effort to support something bridging a relatively small gap, and I don't think Apple is going to see that as necessary until the tablet market has matured a lot more.
That all being said, I still don't believe Apple is planning a 7" model.
On that note, it'll be interesting to see how Android deals with this. There's certainly a place for 7" tablets... and for 15" tablets, too.
However, such a thing would probably be a lot more pocketable than you'd think. My Kindle 2 (9" diagonal and 3/8" thick overall) fits very nicely into all of my inside coat pockets.
The Kindle 2 also weighs less than half of what the iPad does, which is important; I thought about having a giant pocket sewn in to some of my jackets, but then I realized that I'd need a counterweight on the other side, and I actually got as far as starting the weight-and-balance calculations before concluding that this was getting silly. The counterweight idea would require keeping the jacket buttoned all the time, anyway.
A high-density-screen iPad the size of the Kindle 2 would be worse for movies, photos, and (especially) typing, but I could have it with me nearly everywhere, not just places where I am willing to carry my nerd bag.
10" tablet screen size ~~ display size of a legal pad.
7" tablet screen size ~~ display size of a large todo pad.
I like using a legal pad already for drawing/note-taking, but if the fact that it's electronic let's me express what I want with less screen space, It may be worth getting something smaller.
###
I also can't get around the author's idea of carrying an EVO in my pocket. Especially If I plan to use the same device while running/cramming into jeans/etc. It's definately a great purse-able phone for women though.
pic of steno pad: http://content.etilize.com/500/1010042931.jpg
Now tablets are obviously quite a new form factor, and so I'm waiting with interest on when there will be actual "work apps" for one of them. I've already done a bit of on-device software development with my N900 phone (there is even Git available there!), but the input devices can be limited for this. Maybe a win for "special character -free" languages like Python and Genie ;-)
But in no way did I predict the runaway success of the iPad.
After that became apparent I did make one prediction that I'll stand by: many clones will be announced, only a few of them will ship and they'll suck for at least the first year. Maybe two.
We're in year what? 9? of the iPod and yet the competition still isn't as slick. I see the same future for the iPad. There will be the iPad and "the rest".
As for Tim's arguments:
1. Phones aren't going away: agreed.
2. Pocket creep: disagree. I like the size of the iPhone 4. The 4"+ phones just seem a little too big;
3. 10" for sharing: I don't really accept the premise. I view the iPad as a very personal (even intimate) computing device. Passing it back and forth isn't really what I'd call sharing. You can do that with anything you can pick up. Sharing I would view as two or more people looking at it at the same time;
4. 7" for personal: disagree. Many people, myself include, love the size of the iPad. Eyesight comes into this as well, particularly for older users. 7" to me fails the pocket test and (imho) the pocket test will be the differentiator in form factors.
Also regarding weight: on the couch it sits on your lap. When lying down you rest it on your chest. When at a desk or table it's on that surface. On a plane I rest my arm on the armrest or lap and hold the iPad. Basically I'm never holding it in the air. I believe this is a common "beginner mistake". It's natural but you quickly learn better. Another common error: holding it by it's edge rather than your hand underneath in the center of gravity, which is much much easier.
5. No bigger: agree.
6. Battery life: agree. It seems Apple will be the king of battery life for some time to come.
7. Cameras: disagree. Cameras work for PCs and notebooks because the position (at the top of the screen, typically) is eye level. In none of the aforementioned positions would a front facing camera be at a natural or flattering position. I'm not saying cameras won't be added but I don't think the use case is as compelling as some make out.
Basically, who wants to look up someone's nostrils?
As for rear cameras, the weight issue once again comes into play. No one wants to hold it up.
8. Creativity: creative people will do creative things on tablets. Uncreative people won't. It's really as simple as that. Frankly, I found the argument that the iPad is purely a consumption device to be condescending, even pretentious. I do agree that you won't see any serious programming done on tablets. You need a keyboard, mouse and large display for that.
9. Aspect ratio: I can't see these things going to 16:10 or 16:9. They simply don't have the height for it (I make the same argument when some people inexplicably buy 19" widescreen monitors: they're letter boxes).
10. Games: tablets are great for these. I certainly play Angry Birds on my iPad.
Where I believe the Galaxy Tab really falls down is that it seems to be tied to carriers and a 2 year contract. That's a big fail right there and something the iPad got absolutely right.
Leaked prices also suggest it's $399... on a 2 year contract.
That sums it up excellently. Aside from making a great device or service, your success is atleast in part determined by the group of early adopters. In the case of the iPad, the early adopters are, by and large creative professionals and they do what they normally do, overcoming the limitations that the device itself poses to creative work.
The iPad is less elegant in this scenario. I believe this highlights Apple's philosophy that the iPad is a personal computing device more than anything else. So rather than creating a complicated multi-user system, they opted for simplicity.
On a side note: your calendar and mail problem can probably be solved by using restrictions to put passwords on those apps, which you should probably have anyway if the content is sensitive.
This is true for any of the 'serious' programming languages currently in use. And it is because their semantics are such that there are huge returns from being able to display a lot of text at one time (they are not interactive, they are not concise). (Is this because of something inherent in programming, or is it because we tailor the language to be easily editable with keyboard/mouse? It is unclear.)
It would be interesting to see a language like APL on a tablet. The use of sigils leads to a very concise language, and the downside of sigils (lack of a specific keyboard for them), seems to be overcome on a tablet where you use the touch screen as a keyboard.
You could probably go further with it, tailoring a language and development environment specifically to the strengths of a tablet. You might also see something more lisp-like, editing a data structure in real time as a way to create your code.
We aren't going to be there anytime soon, but it is an interesting area of research.