Turkey’s Financial Crisis Surprised Many. Except This Analyst | Hacker News Reader

Turkey’s Financial Crisis Surprised Many. Except This Analyst

nytimes.com

21 pointsmyth_drannon10 comments

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There isn't any informational value in constantly predicting crisis, of course you will be correct some of the time.

"Mr. Lee made his initial call — that Turkey was in deep financial trouble — in 2011."

But in 2012 a well respected stock picking horse stomped its hoof twice signaling the lira was strong so I was torn.

> And in the United States, major stock-market indexes fell more than 1 percent before recovering slightly.

Ugh, the article wants to do actual journalism but then it spews out bullshit cruft like this.

Please give us thoughtful critique rather than shallow, indignant dismissal. If you explain what you mean and why, readers can learn something.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

I think the point is that “falling 1 percent” has no real information content since it’s consistent with daily volatility. You can take such random volatility and try to form a narrative around it but it’s intellectually dishonest.

This is exactly what I meant. I assumed this would be common knowledge in such a technical crowd.

We communicate every day, with a lot of different people. So the common lowest denominator is the base assumption. Assume nobody you talk too knows anything, that way basics explanation becomes part of every "chat-handshake" but the maximum number of participants can be created.

I frankly don't understand all this fuss about it. It was a well known issue. Even I knew that, and I don't tend to follow such news. Now it's Trump's fault. Or the other conspiracies. Incredible how little accountability everyone has nowadays.

Why do we get so many posts about this issue on HN?

The world recently went through a recession largely because of the mortgage crisis in the US. And with the world's Banks exposed to each other everyone is wary of it repeating so any kind of news about is read and shared.

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