Disappearing Jobs... Computer Programmers? | Hacker News Reader

Disappearing Jobs... Computer Programmers?

finance.yahoo.com

17 pointscwan19 comments

'The reason is twofold: The growing ability for users to write and implement their own programs, as well as outsourcing the task of computer programming.'

Huh? I can change the oil in my car, but I don't do it much, and it doesn't make me a mechanic, nor do I build cars.

'This is one of the few cases where it hurts you to be in the digital field: Because your work is digital, you can do it from anywhere in the world.'

Sure there is globalization, but telecommuting jobs aren't ubiquitous.

'Plus, the work of computer programmers requires little localized or specialized knowledge. All you have to know is the computer language.'

This is so wrong, I can't even go there.

> Sure there is globalization, but telecommuting jobs aren't ubiquitous.

I think she was referring to overseas outsourcing specifically to save on wages rather than more mundane telecommuting where the only necessary reason for it is to de-emphasize the office environment.

> This is so wrong, I can't even go there.

This is one reason I disagree with the notion in someone else's comment that "computer programmer" means "systems programmer" to this article's author. I think she is actually thinking of "programmer" as someone who is nothing but a code monkey, following stupidly simple instructions to build stuff that is generic across different problem domains, while "software engineers" are somehow inherently better without her really understanding or being able to articulate how they are better.

Of course, that kind of code monkey job does not really exist, much, even if that kind of code monkey often fills jobs that really should be filled by people with some domain specific knowledge.

> I think she was referring to overseas outsourcing specifically to save on wages rather than more mundane telecommuting where the only necessary reason for it is to de-emphasize the office environment.

And that is why I said, "Sure there is globalization." She went too far and stated that it can be done from anywhere. If that were true, very few programming jobs would be on-site. While there are a good number of jobs that can be outsourced onsite, partial-onsite, offsite, blended-shore, offshore, etc., not all are, because not all can be. I agree with her that offshoring is a reason for decrease in development jobs, but not all of them can go away. You have to have onsite FTEs that are invested in the company and have in-house knowledge for some jobs.

> I think she is actually thinking of "programmer" as someone who is nothing but a code monkey...

Judging by the number of comments on her article, I think she was just trying to cause a disturbance.

What this is describing is the trend in job descriptions in vacancy advertisements, not career types per se. It's not that programmers are going down and software engineers, to the degree that they are different, are going up; but rather, the fashions of what to call this stuff are changing.

That may be the practical translation of the article, but I'm not so sure its author understands that. I get the distinct impression she thinks there's a distinct difference between "programmers" and "software engineers" that is somehow conveyed by that train wreck of a sentence where she tries to define the two terms.

Without getting into whatever statistics she based the article on, there is a much more logical explanation to the projected 3% drop in programmers and a 32% increase in software engineers: there will be a 29% increase in software engineers/programmers and the term "programmers" is becoming less fashionable than "software engineers."

Right, but the author clearly has no idea of what they are talking about and shows that with one of the most illogical and uneducated (about the subject matter) explanations I have ever seen.

The fact remains, software is a creative discipline (one of the only that pays the average practitioner well). I believe that there are not enough truly talented people in the world to supply the demand and I doubt there ever will be.

If you where to take an average or the people who are smart enough, creative enough, had the proper work ethic and then combined that with an interest to enter into software development, the pool of good candidates suddenly dwindles to a small segment of the population even if you include the entire globe.

I used to concern myself with it, but after more than 15 years in the industry, I have come to realize that their are ebbs and flows, but when the chips are down. There are not enough good people to go around.

If someone is good, they will never have to worry and if they are not they should look to get into a field that they are good at. Why would anyone want to be average.

Seems the article doesn't have problems only with software engineers, this is from one of the comments:

Whoever wrote this has no idea how judge positions are made and filled. In most jurisdictions, the number of judicial seats is fixed by statute or constitution. Growth in number of seats is always relatively slow. Judgeships are not a growth industry and never have been. Secondly, no one is sitting around one day watching TV and says, "hmmm, I want to be a judge." Judges come exclusively from the world of experienced lawyers. In California, for example, to be a judge one needs at least 10 years of legal experience. For many attorneys (who are already in the private or public sectior), especially litigators, a judgeship is a natural step up in their career around the mid-40s. Turnover in judgeships occurs when older judges retire or leave the bench to go into the private arbitration world, which can be very lucrative.

I'd better switch from being a programmer to a software engineer!

You find that you will make about 30k more when you do.

This article makes me wonder: how much does your current job title, as opposed to actual duties, matter?

If computer programmer at company A does the same thing as software engineer at company B, how much will it hurt the person at company A when looking for a job?

I call bull.

Beyond bull, the article doesn't even come close to making sense. They predict a 3% drop in 'computer programmer' jobs over the next decade, but a 32% increase in 'computer software engineer' jobs over the same timeframe. Futher confounding the issue, the distinction they draw between the two is "computer software engineers [are] the guys who write the software" while "computer programmers [are] the guys who write the instructions for the computer to use that software". I have no idea what they think that means their version of a programmer does, or how it's supposed to be different from a software engineer. At worst, it looks like 3% of the programmers in the US will have to change their job titles to software engineer and start writing software instead of writing instructions... or something.

(As a side note, did anyone else notice that programming was the only profession in the list that was explicitly gendered in its description?)

I think:

  "computer software engineers" = "application developers"
  "computer programmers" = "systems programmer"

In other words, programmers are spending more of their (paid employment) time writing applications instead of low-level stuff. Maybe because of how much of the development of lower-level stuff is happening in the open source world?

I dunno. I think you're reading a lot into that train-wreck of a sentence.

software engineer: write the software

programmer: write the instructions for a computer to use that software

That doesn't actually line up very well with what you said. I think you're trying to interpret these words within the realm of your own knowledgeable perspective, rather than seeing it from the point of view of someone who probably doesn't even know what the word "software" really means -- like Cindy Perman (the author of this terrible article).

I think Cindy tried paraphrasing some random definitions without actually understanding them well enough to understand them, attempting to transliterate the definitions from terms too technical for her walnut-sized brain to terms she found more comforting, and hosed things up so badly that (like the credulous customers of a fortune teller) we impose our own interpretations on what she said to it seem true.

I think you're right. I'm thinking the computer programmers are the COBOL programmers that are still writing code on the mainframes at banks and utility companies while the software engineers are replacing spreadsheets with .Net and Java apps (or on the web of course).

1. I don't think that's exactly what Legion was saying.

2. I don't think that's exactly what the article's author was saying.

3. I think that makes a lot more sense than whatever cockamamie BS the article's author was saying, though, and I think you give her too much credit by applying such a reasonable sounding interpretation to her ridiculously uninformed statements.

"While computer software engineers, the guys who write the software, are projected to be among the fastest-growing jobs, rising 32 percent over the next 10 years, demand for computer programmers, the guys who write the instructions for a computer to use that software, is expected to shrink 3 percent in the next decade."

This doesn't make sense.

The article notes that while 'computer programmers' will decrease by 3%, 'computer engineers' will increase by 32%. Their description of programmer sounds more like a compiler, so of course that job is going to decrease.

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