Having read nearly the entire literary output of one Nassim Taleb, I'd like to see the results of past predictions on this one. I'm pretty sure it will show that this "tracking" carries no actual predictive power.
"We don’t make any actual predictions about where things are going next month or, in the markets, next year. The stock market could rise a lot, short-term. We don’t know."
Vanguard's model says the probability of a recession by late 2020 is between 30% and 40%, which is higher than normal.
That also means that the probability of no recession by late 2020 is between 60% and 70%, which is lower than normal.
Agreed, unlike every other random event that exists in the universe, recessions are the one thing whose likelyhood cannot possibly be expressed.
Economic recessions are none of these. They are common, expected, and well within the experience of most adults.
Booms and busts have been recurring semi-regularly since the beginning of market economies.
While it would be foolish to predict with any great certainty the date or duration of the next downturn, we can say with high confidence that a downturn will occur.
It doesn't seem unreasonable to observe that recessions are more likely when the yield curve is flat and valuations are historically high than when the yield curve is steep and valuations are more moderate.
The parenthetical was the interesting part to me. I would love to see some long-term data on their forecasts.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/risk-experts-who-predicted-200...
Starting with the Great Recession and working backwards to and including the Great Depression, the gap from the previous US recession for each recession has been:
6y, 1 m
10y
7y, 8m
1y
4y, 10m
3y
8y, 10m
2y
3y, 3m
3y, 9m
3y, 1m
6y, 8m
4y, 2m
1y, 9m