Also, how secure is the kernel on the air-gapped machine against malicious filesystems on the USB stick? (If it's running Linux, the answer is almost certainly "not;" I could imagine FreeBSD is better but I don't know how much people have explored that.)
To be clear I'm not opposed to air-gapping if the maintainer is excited about it, I just suspect there are many much weaker links on the way to/from the air-gapped system, and fixing those is a much harder project that almost nobody is excited about.
Or a virtual throw away machine just for mounting a USB filesystem, extracting the files, place them in some dump directory and then the whole virtual machine is wiped.
Heck, the virtual machine for copying should run BSD. :)
I verify that the source code being compiled is the source code which is published in a signed tarball. Yes, someone could have tampered with the internet-connected system where I do Tarsnap development, but their tampering would be visible in the source code.
Build dependencies are verified to be the packages shipped by Debian. If someone has tampered with the Debian gcc package, we've lost even without Tarsnap binary packages.
Also, how secure is the kernel on the air-gapped machine against malicious filesystems on the USB stick? (If it's running Linux, the answer is almost certainly "not;" I could imagine FreeBSD is better but I don't know how much people have explored that.)
I don't use a filesystem on the USB stick I use for sneakernet, for exactly this reason -- I write and read files to it using tar. (Yes, you can write to a USB stick as a raw device just like you would write to a tape drive.)
For secure airgapped computers I'd use one way low tech comm channels with no side bands, maybe IR or sound? (if you trust the device drivers)