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Comment by Puer | Hacker News Reader

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used.

Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the moment is the nature of the car industry, but all of these car producers seem to forget what happens when gas prices rise and the economy slows. Maybe then they'll actually innovate, but in terms of technology they're already playing catchup to Tesla. If Tesla can figure out how to produce these cars steadily traditional car makers are in trouble.

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Today one can buy electric and/or hybrid cars from Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, VW, Volvo, Audi, and even Jaguar. They are not going to stop making gas guzzlers, but they are steadily increasing their commitment to electric cars.

If electric cars take over the mass market, most of them will be made by established carmakers who know how to crank out millions of cars per year and have thousands of dealerships across the country. I'm sure they will be grateful to Tesla for proving the concept, but the traditional automakers won't have much trouble ramping up production once they know the market is there.

By the way, I would love to have an electric car but I don't have anywhere to charge it because I live in an apartment without a garage. Charging it at work is not realistic for me -- we have some charging spots, but it's really difficult to get one because so many of my coworkers also want to use them. There are millions of customers like me who need the charging infrastructure to improve before electric car ownership becomes practical, and we are going to keep giving our money to the traditional automakers.

> By the way, I would love to have an electric car but I don't have anywhere to charge it because I live in an apartment without a garage.

I figure there might be an opening for a startup company to drive around neighbourhoods early in the morning, fast charging peoples cars for them. Subscription service. Partner with an electric car company.

And even if you do have a garage, would your apartment complex allow you to install a real charger? Or would you get stuck charging with 110v?

Unfortunately that little piece of infrastructure could easily be a deal killer for a ton of people.

Not everyone is a homeowner with a garage. And parking in a charging space at some random retail establishment every couple days for a few hours to charge just seems insane.

That sounds like a temporary problem to me - not anything fundamentally wrong that can't be fixed.

Apartment complexes where I live (Denver metro) are already competing with each other on features like "bike/snowboard fix-up stations", "Amazon lockers", "heated pool", and other absurdities - you bet they're going to install 220v chargers if it helps lure people in. Eventually, it will be expected - just like the bike fix-up station.

Schoedel be fixed, for right now if you were at one of the big auto companies and you find out that 30% of customers* can’t buy an electric car because of these issues… what does that do to your interest in selling electric cars?

If I could buy something equivalent to my current car that was electric, I’d be happy to. But I would definitely have to figure out the charging situation. And that could easily turn into a mess. That mass, plus premium price, plus possibly limited availability may make it easier for me to just buy another gas car for now.

*Number made up

I expect there is going to be a bit of a chicken and egg problem during the evolution of car charging infrastructure.

For example, if electric cars become popular we will need tons of public charging stations, but nobody will be willing to build charging stations unless there are already a lot of electric car owners to use them.

The early adopters of electric cars are going to have to deal with a lot of overcrowding at charging stations, unless they are homeowners and can charge in their garages.

All that aside, there is still the issue of price. I paid $21k for a new Prius C that gets 45-50 mpg. A new Chevy Bolt costs about $29k in California after tax credits as far as I can tell, and that does not include the cost of an in-home charger. That $8k difference would cover years of gas purchases for the Prius -- I've had it for 5 years and I've been spending about $35 for a tank every 3 weeks.

At some point this is going to become the limiting factor for EV adoption, but I don't think we're there yet. The market's small enough that single-family homeowners can sustain it.

BTW, depending on where you live, you may be able to have a charging station installed (at your expense). In Hawaii, condo associations must allow the installation of charging stations. Less useful for apartment renters, but possibly still an option. You can read stories on Tesla forums of renters who convinced their apartment owners to spring for a bank of charging spots, though it's an effort.

And there are people who make it work without home charging. I did that for a year before I got my own charging station installed, but for anyone who puts serious miles on their car, it's a nightmare--a green version of Mad Max--hunting for an opening in one of the few public spots. Wouldn't recommend it.

If you sell a gas car today, you can sell the same customer an electric car tomorrow.

In theory, yes.

We just drove our Model 3 home 13 days ago. IF you want an electric car, nothing else on the market has the compelling mix of features that the 3 has, IMO.

I'm a big BMW fan, and they keep promising that they'll be selling normal electric cars Real Soon Like Now, but frankly, most automaker efforts are either 'weird' electrics like the i3 or Leaf or Bolt (which have their own range or fast charging network issues), or PROMISES to bolt electric motors to existing cars like the 3 series. It's great that they think that will magically result in an electric car, but it doesn't resolve the fast charging network issues, I've seen no real promises of charging network investments, UI that makes it easy to find said chargers, etc. Maybe it's in the works, I don't know, but the fact that they're not even publicizing whatever efforts they're making mean that they're not making a splash in the market; they're not trying hard enough.

The 3 feels like a substantially different rethink of the car; it's on when I touch the door handle (or sooner, if I start the A/C via the app). Other automakers seem lost in the "take a car, remove the gas engine, replace with electric motors, and BAM, electric car!" mindset.

>I'm a big BMW fan, and they keep promising that they'll be selling normal electric cars Real Soon Like Now

I feel ya. I'm a chapter officer in the BMW Car Club, but we just placed an order for a Model 3 for my wife on Saturday. The only thing even remotely on the horizon for BMW is the iX3, which will be produced in China (even though BMW produces all X3s in the US currently). It will only have 250 miles of range. And it launches in 2020.

I currently drive a 530e plugin hybrid. I tell anyone who will listen not to waste their time with it. It has 15-20 miles of real world EV-only range. I live in a small town and it typically isn't enough for me to drive across town and back if I have the AC on. If I wasn't so upside down on the lease (12 months in), I'd be ordering myself a Model 3.

My wife made me get rid of the 2015 M3 I had prior to the 530e. I greatly miss that vehicle, but now the joke is that she's going to be the one with an M3. Just a slightly different kind of M3.

My next vehicle is not likely to be a BMW. It is mostly likely to be either a Tesla or a Porsche Taycan. Maybe BMW will have something worth my time in 2023. And it's so sad as they were ahead of the curve with the i3. And then they did... nothing.

I've got a Clownshoe but in 2015 I also bought a Golf R 6MT (replaced by the Tesla) instead of an F31 3 series wagon because of BMW's shortsightedness in not bringing a manual over anymore -- a car I waited YEARS for, basically since the E91 was discontinued. I always argued that by catering to the fashionistas instead of car people, they wouldn't have a "base" once the fashion went elsewhere. Well, the fashion is going to electric cars and they're being left behind...

BMW has definitely decided that the X vehicles are what Americans will buy if they want cargo space. Those of us who have no desire to drive an SUV or "Crossover" seem to be the minority these days, unfortunately.

BMW is hitting it out of the park with the M2, but their mass market vehicles of the G generation seem to be missing the point as the market moves to EVs.

Hopefully VW will knock it out of the park w/the Taycan and it's charging network.

Large cars are safer. The IIHS publishes a stat they call "driver deaths per million registered vehicle years." Check it out: http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/on-the-road-again-...

Notice a pattern? All of the safest cars (including the handful in which nobody died) are large. Mostly SUVs and pickups, with a few luxury sedans thrown in. All of the least safe cars are small. Many of them are tiny.

Incidentally, electric cars tend to be very safe for their size because the battery makes them weigh more. I'm all for that-- I'm just saying that Americans' love of large cars isn't entirely irrational. Some very unlucky Ford Fiesta drivers would still be alive if they'd been behind the wheel of a Jeep Cherokee.

You need to look at the demographics of the drivers. Younger, inexperienced drivers drive smaller cars.

Aren't there a couple of feedback loops there?

Younger/inexperienced drivers buy affordable cars, which are affordable because they are [perceived as] less safe.

Older drivers, of people with the income to make a choice who care about perception, buy cars that are [perceived as] more safe.

They’re more affordable because they cost less to make.

Are larger cars increasing safety overall, or are they just "winning" in crashes v.s. smaller vehicles? Would the driver of the Ford Fiesta still be alive if he'd crashed into another Fiesta instead of a Jeep Cherokee?

Most likely they’re just killing people in smaller cars, deaths from car crashes are higher in the US compared to other developed countries after all. Americans seem to enjoy a good arms race.

Part of that is that in multi -vehicle accidents bigger cars do more damage to small ones because they have more mass. So the bigger car is definitely safer for its occupants, but not necessarily better overall.

Pedestrian vs SUV bull bars turned out to be so grim for the pedestrians that they've been banned in Europe. The occupant safety statistics only tell part of the story.

How awful that they're making cars that their customers want to buy. </s>

The reality is that electric cars aren't in great demand today, Everyone's working on them but most aren't in a particular hurry to push out cars that don't necessarily have a good mix of price/range/features for their customers and which they won't sell all that many of as a result.

Something no one really talks about is the difficulty of just charging an electric car for anyone who isn't a homeowner. That's a nontrivial question -- and possibly a dealbreaker -- for millions of apartment dwellers.

Or homeowners without garages. I live in a house but park in the street in front of it. I can't practically string an extension cord to my car to charge it every night.

Nevermind what a bunch of drunk teenagers would do upon seeing that setup.

I'm in the same situation, there's the option of renting a nearby garage but when I factor that into the cost of an already expensive vehicle, the economics just aren't interesting at all.

Tesla's network of superchargers aim to solve this. They stopped giving out free supercharging IIRC, but it's still a great way to keep the battery close to topped off - you can do it as a short pitstop after driving to work, and the same after your drive home assuming you have a supercharger closeby

They're slowly making appearances in public parking lots, train stations, etc, even curbside spots in some cities.

But yeah, nowhere near the number needed for the electric car revolution (tm).

Although I've noticed most of said chargers are usually empty, so I suppose it's a chicken and egg problem.

Making an electric car is trivial. The big problem is that battery costs still cause the majority of the total vehicle cost. The e-golf is a perfect example of that. It's identical to the ICE version except it costs twice as much at the cost of significantly lower range. The 2017 version is still at the 30k price point but the range was upgraded to 185 miles. It will probably take another 3 years until we see a 300 mile version to eliminate range anxiety for the majority of the population and then it will take another 3-6 years for prices to go down.

The ICE vehicle manufacturers are waiting for battery costs to come down. They aren't short sighted. It's simple economics.

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