I'm sure they'll be able to overtake Baidu. Baidu's search product is terrible. The results are almost always unusable. The only times I find them useful is when it links to a quora-equivalent website where someone has asked your exact query.
If there is any eastward leakage of Google's code, it's certainly not obvious in day-to-day usage of Baidu's search engine.
Possibly because of the censorship? If so, Google isn't going to be much better.