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Don't forget to take ride sharing into account. I'd be happy to be in a vanpool picking up a half dozen people as it drives into SF. Six people per vehicle makes even $1.70/mile cost competitive with BART.

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So why isn't that happening today? I suppose it sort of is with Line and Pool but surely $10-ish per hour for a driver can't make a huge difference for this sort of service--which is quite widely-used in other countries.

It is happening today. We've always had some vanpool-ish type companies, though they haven't always been easy to work with. There are some startups trying to change that, like https://www.chariot.com/ -- I've been keeping an eye on them and when they start operating along my commute line I will likely switch away from BART.

The big problem with vanpools is scheduling. Everyone wants flexibility and smarter scheduling systems in a manner very similar to what uber has provided for individual rides.

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