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Comment by propman | Hacker News Reader

40 pointspropman29 comments

The number isn't inflation adjusted. The increase is 2.8, inflation was 2.9.. and the BLS has constant dollar version of this same report, and it indicates pay decreased by -0.1%. https://www.bls.gov/web/eci/ecconstnaics.pdf

WSJ decided to run with the non-inflation adjusted numbers, and then wrote an entire article saying workers got a pay increase... which they didn't. This is cherry picking at its finest. I'm actually flagging this.

In the article it says that one of the reasons for the increase is due to upwards inflationary pressures and says 2.2% inflation.

The fact that we’ve had such tepid wage increases for the past decade that a measly .6% growth is the best in a decade can be viewed as pathetic in a vacuum or as the “biggest pay increase in nearly a decade”. Both are true, but overall I’d still say it’s good news in an area which has been extremely bleak.

explain the bls constant dollar report. It does not agree with you.

This is par for the course with the Wall Street Journal. The past couple articles have been flagged here for being purposely misleading like this.

I agree. Also flagging this

I disagree. A lie by omission by wsj is news worthy in and of itself. Just change the title.

Perhaps - but not in my power to do so. In absence of that I do what I can.

> Wages and salaries of private-sector workers, rose 2.9% in June from a year earlier, matching the pace seen in the prior quarter.

Adjusted for a 1.9% inflation, the wages and salaries increase is a whopping 1%. So if you are making $ 100,000 / year (which is possibly a lot higher than most people, esp. non-techies are making), the annual increase is about $1,000. Take taxes away and it's about $600 to $700.

Nothing to be bragging about IMO.

where did you get 1.9% inflation from? This indicates 2.9%: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-infl...

And if you use the constant dollar report from the bls, it says wages decreased by -0.1% (for all civilian workers): https://www.bls.gov/web/eci/ecconstnaics.pdf

So according to the BLS, you've actually overstated the increase.. there was no increase in inflation adjusted pay.

Core PCE (ex-food and energy) was 1.9% https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE

Core CPI was 2.2% (this is usually what the fed prefers) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFENS

I got 2.8% for CPI total (it looks like this is what your website is using) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

> Nothing to be bragging about IMO.

Agreed. For decades, wages have not outpaced inflation for the majority of workers. Don't expect the trend to reverse any time soon.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-wor...

https://www.epi.org/nominal-wage-tracker/

I'm guessing a vast majority of that 2.9% wage growth is in the upper brackets anyways.

https://fortunedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/income_cha... for reference from a few years ago, it would be shocking if things have changed

Usually for these things, I find going to the original source is much more informative than relying on the media. Here [1] is the report from the BLS. It does mention distribution. You can see it for each profession group here [2].

The group "management, business, and financial" saw a 2.5% increase. Sales and office occupations saw a 3.5% increase. Service occupations saw a 3.3% increase. "Accommodations and food service" saw a 3.1% increase. Anyhow, plenty of other information available as well but this definitely looks very good.

[1] - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

[2] - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.t05.htm

Sure, this is by profession group/sector, do they have statistics that are by income? ie what share of the increase went to each quintile, for example.

Financial accomplishment during Trumps admin?

It's just crumbs! https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jan/11/nancy-pelos...

It's -0.1% real wage increase. The only reason the raw number is positive is because inflation is higher than it has been for a while.

So, congratulations, Trump has accomplished inflation with nominal wage growth almost keeping up with it.

I get the impression this isn't adjusted by inflation (since in some sense it's a measurement of a particular kind of inflation).

The number cited is 2.8%. CPI over past 12 months is also 2.8%...

I might be wrong about how this is measured, though.

This suggests that it is not adjusted for inflation: https://www.bls.gov/ncs/ect/ectfaq.htm#faqE1

I think you guys are missing the good news- The rate at which American salaries are shrinking has decreased!

So, still less than inflation [0]?

[0]https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/consumer-prices-up-2-point...

An interactive ui.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx?pan...

If the labor market is growing isn't this just indicative of high demand for labor and low supply of labor?

http://archive.is/9Cldg

Once again, the Wall Street Journal is pushing GOP talking points with half the story, the number isn't adjusted for inflation, so it's actually a slight pay decrease due to inflation.

The subtext is WSJ carrying water for the GOP tax plan. See, supply side economics works! Similar cherry picking is done with GDP stats.

Call me when the pay increases are within spitting distance of what my parents got in the 1970s.

No, they got yet another slap in the face.

non paywalled link: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-workers-see-biggest-p...

Not the same article.

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