Show HN: CFP – Android app that uses AI to optimize long-term profit in soccer

The App uses Artificial Intelligence (evolutionary algorithms) with a main objective of obtaining long-term profit from betting on football (soccer) games. The AI has access statistical models and learns from past mistakes so that it optimizes future reward.

With over 1 year in testing the results of the algorithm's predictions show that there is no magical solution that makes you win 100% of the time. However it has learned to exploit a couple of strategies and has achieved its objective of obtaining long-term profit.

- It bets on matches where it thinks there are increased chances for a surprise result. (betting against the favorite)

- Uses one match it thinks is [a value bet](https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/wha...) combined with other matches to multiply profitability.

- Prefers to skip betting on most matches.

Some disadvantages of its strategies:

- Picks risky solutions that are more profitable on the long-run.

- Accuracy is between 32-60% depending on bet type. The low accuracy compensates with the increased rewards. ( average win odds of 2.7 and 3.5)

- Due to small sample bias https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgZQMJQRwRM and the accuracy it's main vulnerability is short-term bankruptcy when choosing a stake that is too big in terms of % from the total amount available.

FAQ:

- Does it work only on Android?

Yes, at least for the moment. I plan to see how this goes and then release for iOS.

- Why are you using Facebook for authentification?

It was easy to implement (firebase auth) and I worked on it before the Cambridge Analytica scandal. It didn't require extra costs and servers and had good enough protection against spamming accounts. I use the most minimum permissions from Facebook (just the email which is opt-out). Also planning to market it through Facebook ads so most of the potential users already have an Facebook account.