Comment by DmenshunlAnlsis | Hacker News Reader

Comment by DmenshunlAnlsis | Hacker News Reader

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DmenshunlAnlsis

What I’m saying is based on missed targets, a price point that has never materialized, and a total lack of personal investment in Musk or Tesla on a financial or emotional level. If Intel made as many claims and delivered so little I’d be skeptical of their ability to ever deliver as well. When I look at Tesla I see a company that can only make its stated targets when they work out of a tent with all hands on deck. That same company is saddled with debt and has never turned a profit. It’s hardly doomed, but there are clearly real problems to be overcome.

Then I contrast that with the pie-eyed faith of the “Musk is saving the world for us,” fanboys and it makes me tired. The gulf between the reality of Tesla and the “negative case” as you call it isn’t that wide, while between the promise of changing energy forever blah blah blah is a lot of PR. The most likely cases are Tesla succeeding as a car company or failing as a car company and nothing more either way.

I don’t care if Tesla fails or succeeds, and I don’t know whether failure or success lies ahead for it. I do increasingly see Musk as unstable and unpleasant, and his most rabid fans as unbearable though. I’m approaching console-wars and cryptocurrency levels of burnout with this topic and how online communities discuss it. I feel dread at another predictable and heavily flagged discussion every time Musk and Tesla is submitted, not excitement or intellectual stimulation.

> Then I contrast that with the pie-eyed faith of the “Musk is saving the world for us,” fanboys and it makes me tired.

There are things that the fanboys understand that critics don't. It will make more sense to everyone once people understand that the Model 3 is the iPhone of cars and the Gigafactory and other investments start paying for themselves.

As far as the pro-Tesla and anti-Tesla arguments, I find the two sides talk past each other because the time frames being discussed are very different. Case in point, it's not that Tesla investors are covering their ears and saying "lalalala" about Tesla's missed deadlines. It's that they don't care. Based on the Model X delays, I didn't expect the Model 3 to even enter production until the end of this year. Besides the financial risk factor, I couldn't care less about the company missing its deadlines by a year. It simply does not matter. Repeat for many other topics.

There are things that the fanboys understand that critics don't. It will make more sense to everyone once people understand that the Model 3 is the iPhone of cars and the Gigafactory and other investments start paying for themselves.

If. IF. It could be the iPhone 1, or it could be a distant memory, or it could just be another car. It’s the certainty and sense of destiny that makes the fanboys so impossible to deal with, like cryptocurrency fanatics who can only talk about “fiat is dead,” lines. Putting aside the extreme positions, Tesla shows no signs beyond aspirations of being more than a car company. They don’t seem like they’re about to keel over, or conquer the world, they’re just making cars.

> It could be the iPhone 1, or it could be a distant memory, or it could just be another car.

I think your mistake is thinking that this is a roll of the die. Just because something is difficult to discuss doesn't mean there aren't people that understand it. And many pro-Tesla arguments are systemic, which also makes them difficult to convey (concepts like "game-theoretic equilibrium" are not in common lingo). Many pro-Tesla-ites will sound hype-y because they don't have a good way of explaining their conclusions, not because they don't have a clear understanding.

“It should be possible to explain the laws of physics to a barmaid.” -Rutherford

No offense, but this isn’t physics, and I’m skeptical of grand designs that live and die in someone’s head without the ability to be communicated to others. Maybe it’s hard to explain because it’s bullshit, and actually is hype-y?

It's important to not mistake your personal dislike of something for objective fact though. For example:

> a price point that has never materialized

Why would something that hasn't been scheduled to happen have happened? It's like criticizing Democrats for not winning the 2018 midterms. It's just plain nonsense.

> changing energy forever blah blah blah is a lot of PR.

Maybe that's just cynicism? Many people care about their success because it is a proxy for Climate Change. A future where Tesla succeeds is a future in which there is significant movement towards cutting carbon emissions. A future where Tesla fails is more likely to be fossil-dependent than not. There is no future where Tesla is successful and we're heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

Maybe you'd find it more intellectually stimulating if you paid attention to what they're actually doing, versus whatever dumb shit Musk says on twitter.

They’re making cars, not as fast as they’d like, but faster than their most ardent naysayers seemed to think they could. The recall rates on the cars are pretty average compare to the rest of the industry, so I’m skeptical of claims by naysayers that they’re shoddily made. However, they’re yet to turn a profit, yet to show any signs of profit, they’re heavily in debt, and have given a lot of time to competing industry giants to wake up and catch up. I’d say the future is uncertain based on what they’re actually doing, rather than the dumb shit on Twitter as you say.

As for cynicism, that only really fits if a cynical outlook is conflated with an uncertain outlook. Really, I’m getting a strong, “your lack of faith is disturbing,” vibe here. I don’t know if Musk can make Tesla the kind of success that SpaceX is; it’s possible, as is abject failure. I feel quite comfortable betting against the “save the world” scenario, since I’m taking your advice and ignoring the bullshit tweets.

How about this, I’ve already clearly spelled out what I think and why. How about you explain in detail, clearly and concretely how present matters imply what you see as likely? Not in terms of what “must” happen to avert a dire future, or in optimistic terms... just get realistic with me. Convince me.

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