I know this doesn't sit well with the whole "Musk is a fraudster/bullshit artist" wave that's hit HN and most online forums recently, but sometimes things are really simple. They'll make the car and sell it a profit.
Historically, Tesla has never done this without selling ZEV credits (there were those two quarters it posted a profit but the amount of cash they've burned is many times greater than those two miniscule profits they posted). I say this because selling ZEV credits isn't an advantage, any automaker can do this if they sell vehicles, even if those vehicles are sold at a loss.
Here's the thing. SV Tech companies aren't too great at the whole "at scale" manufacturing thing. Maybe Tesla can figure it out, but they need to pay more attention to what the "boring dinosaurs" are doing this this regard.
If you're interested, this video is great: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpCrkO1x-Qo
There was a time when Apple was notorious for problems with manufacturing shortages, but somewhere along the line of becoming a juggernaut they seem to have figured it out.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/07/tesla-drops-35000-price...
I’ll believe it’s a thing when it starts to ship, until then it’s PR for a car that’s much less affordable.
Edit: the mass downvoting of any comment critical of Tesla/Musk, and flagging of any negative article is getting really old. It’s especially galling when people float conspiracy theories about an anti-Musk bent as a justification for this.
What I'm saying is, what you you're seeing could be explained thus: "It takes a few months to spin up production of new trim levels. Like other companies, this company's years-long plans sometimes get delayed by several weeks or months. The company has spent a lot of capital on fixed costs and are focusing on being cashflow positive by prioritizing high-margin sales first"
To make sense of Tesla's actions doesn't require your to believe anything out of the ordinary, nor even anything specific to Tesla. I might have just as easily described Intel shipping a chip.
OTOH, the negative case is always shifting, there are always rumours, the books are cooked, the production numbers are bunk, the QC issues are underreported, etc etc. Until a few weeks ago, the line was that they couldn't make them in large numbers. Now that that's gone and forgotten, the current line is about the base model. When that ships, the line will shift to the Model Y or FSD.
Then I contrast that with the pie-eyed faith of the “Musk is saving the world for us,” fanboys and it makes me tired. The gulf between the reality of Tesla and the “negative case” as you call it isn’t that wide, while between the promise of changing energy forever blah blah blah is a lot of PR. The most likely cases are Tesla succeeding as a car company or failing as a car company and nothing more either way.
I don’t care if Tesla fails or succeeds, and I don’t know whether failure or success lies ahead for it. I do increasingly see Musk as unstable and unpleasant, and his most rabid fans as unbearable though. I’m approaching console-wars and cryptocurrency levels of burnout with this topic and how online communities discuss it. I feel dread at another predictable and heavily flagged discussion every time Musk and Tesla is submitted, not excitement or intellectual stimulation.
There are things that the fanboys understand that critics don't. It will make more sense to everyone once people understand that the Model 3 is the iPhone of cars and the Gigafactory and other investments start paying for themselves.
As far as the pro-Tesla and anti-Tesla arguments, I find the two sides talk past each other because the time frames being discussed are very different. Case in point, it's not that Tesla investors are covering their ears and saying "lalalala" about Tesla's missed deadlines. It's that they don't care. Based on the Model X delays, I didn't expect the Model 3 to even enter production until the end of this year. Besides the financial risk factor, I couldn't care less about the company missing its deadlines by a year. It simply does not matter. Repeat for many other topics.
If. IF. It could be the iPhone 1, or it could be a distant memory, or it could just be another car. It’s the certainty and sense of destiny that makes the fanboys so impossible to deal with, like cryptocurrency fanatics who can only talk about “fiat is dead,” lines. Putting aside the extreme positions, Tesla shows no signs beyond aspirations of being more than a car company. They don’t seem like they’re about to keel over, or conquer the world, they’re just making cars.
I think your mistake is thinking that this is a roll of the die. Just because something is difficult to discuss doesn't mean there aren't people that understand it. And many pro-Tesla arguments are systemic, which also makes them difficult to convey (concepts like "game-theoretic equilibrium" are not in common lingo). Many pro-Tesla-ites will sound hype-y because they don't have a good way of explaining their conclusions, not because they don't have a clear understanding.
No offense, but this isn’t physics, and I’m skeptical of grand designs that live and die in someone’s head without the ability to be communicated to others. Maybe it’s hard to explain because it’s bullshit, and actually is hype-y?
> a price point that has never materialized
Why would something that hasn't been scheduled to happen have happened? It's like criticizing Democrats for not winning the 2018 midterms. It's just plain nonsense.
> changing energy forever blah blah blah is a lot of PR.
Maybe that's just cynicism? Many people care about their success because it is a proxy for Climate Change. A future where Tesla succeeds is a future in which there is significant movement towards cutting carbon emissions. A future where Tesla fails is more likely to be fossil-dependent than not. There is no future where Tesla is successful and we're heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
Maybe you'd find it more intellectually stimulating if you paid attention to what they're actually doing, versus whatever dumb shit Musk says on twitter.
As for cynicism, that only really fits if a cynical outlook is conflated with an uncertain outlook. Really, I’m getting a strong, “your lack of faith is disturbing,” vibe here. I don’t know if Musk can make Tesla the kind of success that SpaceX is; it’s possible, as is abject failure. I feel quite comfortable betting against the “save the world” scenario, since I’m taking your advice and ignoring the bullshit tweets.
How about this, I’ve already clearly spelled out what I think and why. How about you explain in detail, clearly and concretely how present matters imply what you see as likely? Not in terms of what “must” happen to avert a dire future, or in optimistic terms... just get realistic with me. Convince me.
The line was that they couldn't make the Model 3 in SUSTAINABLE numbers. Not some one week sprint where you took people from other lines and (allegedly) aggressively cut corners on quality. People have a right to be negative until Tesla can prove that they can build cars quickly, profitably, sustainably and with a reasonable level of quality.
We've been hearing about it forever. Let's see it. It's always "coming".
>"Musk is a fraudster/bullshit artist" wave that's hit HN and most online forums recently"
Give me a break. You're "wave" is my, finally, balance. Tesla, or more specifically Musk, has got far more postive press than they deserve. I never see any Nissan, Porsche, Audi, or rarely, GM articles on this site. Meanwhile, every time the Tesla blog/Electrek make a post, it's upvoted here.
For example, Ford's F-150 line is worth an incredible amount of money.
"Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has estimated that the F-Series, which includes F-150 and Super Duty trucks and remains the best-selling lineup in America, is responsible for 90% of the automaker’s global profits."
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/why-the-ford-f-150-is-a-...
Workers at a factory falsified test data to make it look like cars that didn't pass their internal tests passed. The cars were still complaint with the relevant regulations and the tests are not advertised to customers. Nobody got cheated except Nissan itself. It's like promising your customers 99.99% up-time, considering 99.999% up-time the bar for success internally, delivering 99.99% and then fudging the numbers so that it says 99.999% internally.
I love getting triggered by corporate misconduct as much as the next guy but the Nissan thing was a nothing-burger with a catchy headline.
Edit: Since apparently I'mWrong(TM) can explain to me how the Nissan thing is anything worth paying attention to?
Sounds an awful lot like cheating to me, but OK.
Exactly. Some stupid story that wasn't true. I rest my case.
I would argue Musk gets press for nearly the same reasons Trump does. And it works.