Will the Model 3 make Tesla a real car company?
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Tesla is running out of cash at a time when competition
is heating up—Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, and others plan
to release dozens of electric car models.
All I want is an all-electric EV with a 200+ mile range. You know what my options are? [1] A Tesla Model S or X, a Bolt EV/Ampera-e which isn't sold in my country [2], or a Tesla Model 3 which is barely shipping at all.
I look forward to the day when more than one company sells an EV with a respectable range.
[1] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BEV_EPA_range_compar... [2] https://fleetworld.co.uk/new-ampera-e-wont-make-uk-confirms-...
Sorry, but no. One can be had in just a couple months at this point, and that lead time will dwindle quickly now that they've really ramped production.
Going off of this I would assume the parent poster isn't in the USA. In other countries, the Tesla Model 3 isn't expected to start deliveries until 2019.
[1] http://www.carbuyer.co.uk/news/150839/new-tesla-model-3-pric...
Doesn't seem like a couple a month right now and at all. Of course it could dwindle fast from here on out, but even if production doubles you'd still be looking at more than just a couple months. And you'd likely see pre-orders go up accordingly as well, I'm sure there's people who haven't pre-ordered because it makes no sense paying $1k to be on a 3 year waiting list, I wouldn't be surprised if waiting lists didn't budge nearly as much as production rates increase. And besides, doubling production isn't exactly trivial despite Tesla's erroneous claims in the past.
A large chunk of the 400k are probably outside of the US, and another chunk are waiting for cheaper configurations.
If you are in the US and order a 'First Production' model (Long Range battery + premium interior) you will definitely not be at the back of a 400k long line.
Edit: If they ever get that electric Golf to similar range, I think that will be a pretty good option.
Volkswagen e-Golf
Renault ZOE
Jaguar i-Pace
Volkswagen e-Golf
Renault ZOE
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Golf#Volkswagen_e-G... [2] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111560_renault-zoe-sti...
The fact that you do not own the battery is also reflected in the price of the vehicle, it would take us 8 years to reach a break even, I have not yet owned a car for 8 years.
A nice bonus is that the Zoe got the highest possible score on a corrosion test, a big thing where I live since roads are frequently sprayed with salt winter time.
250km is 155 miles, which is close enough to the 150 miles claimed in the parent comment.
It's also still below the 200 miles requested in the original comment.
However, there are also significant savings from being electric. So, it's possible to afford one on a developer's 100k/year salary especially if you keep it for ~10 years.
I'd venture to guess it's only with the premium brands, and only when buying new (or maybe used-certified) and only with a model with terrible fuel economy.
7 years would be, for the average American, 100k miles. (Assuming that $90k Tesla costs nothing at all to operate...) Even at a generous 35 cents a mile for fuel and maintenance, that leaves $55k for purchase cost, and that may not be exclusively premium-only "make" territory, but at a make like Honda, that's going to be a fancier model.
Take that per mile cost difference down to a more realistic 20 cents ($3.60/G, 30mpg, independent shop for maintenance, no tires or suspension since electric cars need those, too), and now it's $70k, well within premium brand territory.
Residual value of the Tesla is likely to be better, but if it was financed, that cost would be higher, too. I'm not sure how to estimate that.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/04/plug-hybrid-electric-ve...
But even for a daily driver, most days I only need about 50 miles range on most days. So for a Tesla model S or 3, I'd be hauling around the weight and expense of a 250 - 350 mile range battery that I won't be using 95% of the time. So I'd rather have a 60-mile battery (like the Volt), but with a high performance electric motor (like a model S), and a very low HP (small) ICE engine that won't add much weight. For extended-range driving, the electric motor would provide acceleration while the ICE directly powers the rear wheels and provides cruising (and mild charging when the battery gets too low).
As a native English speaker I have no idea what you're saying. At best you're saying that a Tesla is an unrealistic option for your unspecified context.
I mean there is not much competition in electric cars right now because its still a new product, only for a few early adopters. In time it will become more mainstream with more choice and for me its only then would I look for one.
Electric cars have an order of magnitude less moving parts, barely any maintenance to do on them (no need to change the brakes, no oil, no filter on the engine...)
I can see why PHEV are appealing right now, but they are not a good long term decision.
Second, most competitors are years away. Tesla is producing and shipping their mid priced car already, while most others are merely announcing, planning and developing theirs. If you want a 200 mile range, Nissan Leaf is already a decent competitor, though.
Most of us would like longer ranges (300 miles or more), and there is literally no other company than Tesla with EVs of that range. The EVs from VW, BMW, Daimler etc. are not on the market until maybe 2020, and with shorter range. Their second attempt will be ready 2-3 years after given the usual production cycle. By mid 2020, Tesla likely has substantially longer range than 300 miles and lower prices than $54,000, and they may very well be close to producing 1,000,000 EVs yearly (they just need to double current production rate once per year to achieve that).
By 2022-2023, when the competitors are finally ready with cars that can compete with the 2018 Tesla model 3, I bet Tesla is already down in the upper end of the low priced segment or the lower end of the mid priced segment and that they produce several millions of EVs yearly.
Like you, I would love for the others to catch up. Competition is good. But I increasingly doubt it will happen.
Tesla can literally just copy their current production lines a number of times at different places in the world, wait for the battery efficiency to improve as it has done every year, wait for battery price to drop, as it has done every year, while expanding their charging networks. Not that I think they won't keep innovating. It's just that they are so far ahead already.
Solar is 55% of all new installations in the USA and Tesla is the leader in solar installations with SolarCity. $/watt installed is only going down with scale.
Batteries are becoming the platform for transportation and Tesla owns 50% of the global manufacturing capacity. $/watt is also trending down with scale.
Charging stations will replace gas stations and Tesla owns a major percentage of the stock.
The question is over what timescale is Tesla over/undervalued? The genius is that there is always going to be friction between long and short term values. This shortsightedness is the weak link of Wall Street. But if it's overvalued then short the stock!
The Model E has already made Tesla an energy comany with a very successful product, "the Model 3 is selling more units in the U.S. than any comparably priced midsize sedan, including those offered by Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi."[1]
I don't own a Tesla or Tesla stock.
[0] http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/0fbefe56-326c-412e-a33c-aa1... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-07-12/how-tesla...
By 2021, that'll be a single digit percent due to new Chinese plants coming online.
Uh... from all the reporting I've seen, SolarCity isn't a major factor in solar installation, and certainly not the leader.
From the 10-K, Tesla installed 523MW of solar capacity in 2017. The US alone installed 10,608MW of solar capacity in 2017. Assuming that Tesla is exclusively looking at the US market, Tesla is responsible for 5% market share... that is nowhere near the leader.
My understanding is that a market leader has the largest share among competitors, not a majority. If the next largest company only has 4.5% of the market, then Tesla/SolarCity is the leader.
That being said, if Tesla is the leader then competition is fierce and the market is ripe for consolidation.
First Solar is merely the largest US-based solar company; some Chinese companies are even larger in terms of volume.
Residential is the largest by quantity of installations, but when you look at the total production numbers, utility-scale easily blows everyone away https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaic_power_sta...
To put the disclaimer up front: I have.
I think Tesla's going to run out of cash and be forced to raise on disadvantageous terms.
As a car company, they would be unbelievably overvalued. As an energy company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a solar company, they would be wildly overvalued. As a battery tech company, it's unclear, but probably still overvalued or wildly overvalued. I don't see how even that combination, along with the current and projected cash burn rate, lets them catch up to their current valuation let alone exceed it before needing to raise capital.
I love the tech, daily drive (a non-Tesla) electric, and hope EVs continue to grow in market share; I just don't see the company as being nearly worth the current market cap.
That said, it's still hard to see how they can get there, considering that at present, they are the smallest mass-market car company by volume (if you want to call them mass market), a non-entity in the energy business, and a small player in an oversaturated solar market--and the synergy between solar and car manufacturing doesn't really exist.
tesla is making all the money they can now, when solar is a novelty for homes.
the second gov enters the game, chemical batteries will not be used. at all.
Whenever you see a headline posed as a question, it's certain to be nonsense. News should be factual, not rhetorical or philosophical.
Will an asteroid strike the earth? Are aliens hiding from us?
I really hope the news business model changes in the near future because it's getting so clickbaity and useless. Today's news is to real news what junk food is to real food. For joyous few years, the internet and social media was a refuge from news. Now, we are inundated with news.
Would be nice if the news stuck to facts, events or data.
* Crappy ads on local tv with Incentives to get excess inventory off the lot
* Old models in the scrap yard
* Disappointing resale values
* Unions on strike
* Mechanics who making blowing noises when you drive onto the lot and ask how much to fix
* Management out for themselves
* Factories in some run down city in the midwest
Until then its still a novelty company.
Ford largely abandoned the sedan market. Every other automaker has been forced to either hybridize or reduce car size. SUVs and trucks are effectively the new sedan, as they have different efficiency requirements, so can support the mobile energy requirements of an early 21st century family. Most of the plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars - the Bolt/Volt, i3, etc - are part of limited runs that are likely sold at a loss to offset the company's more gas-hungry vehicles.
On the other side, cheap cars leave slim margins. In Lee Iacocca's autobiography, he relates Henry Ford Jr telling him that they'd never make money on small cars, in the 1970s gas crisis.
The problem with cars is they undercut the used SUV market. Which increases depreciation on more profitable SUV's which effectively increases their price.
I guess, a part of "Apple disease" of around mid-20xx. Teslas are so distinct from mainline cars under the bonnet, that they can't source much components on open market, big part of manufacturing equipment have to be custom made, and they can't outsource anything.
Chinese makers on other hands just gut existing economy sedans, and put batteries in place of motor, and PMDCs on rear axle, without any extra magic involved.
It's pretty clear the big auto makers will eventually be able to mass produce cheap EVs. There's nothing particularly special about them, and battery prices will continue to fall for some time yet.
A 2018 Toyota Camry in the US has a base price of $23,645.
Others: Toyota Carolla $18,700; Nissan Altima $23,260; Nissan Sentra $16,990; Honda Accord $23,570; Honda Civic $18,940; Ford Fusion $22,215; Chevy Cruze $16,975; Chevy Malibu $21,680; Chevy Impala $27,895; Hyundai Elantra $14,450; Hyundai Sonata $18,550.
If we can build all of those at such low prices, EVs will commonly get down there globally given 15-20 years.
Chinese cars today CAN'T pass safety standards today. That doesn't preclude them form passing in the future. It just means if you bought a Chinese car today and tested it against US safety standards today, it would fail.
I'm sure Chinese companies can produce EV sedans that pass US crash tests, obviously, but can they do so while they remain cheap? We won't know unless and until they try.