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Comment by module0000 | Hacker News Reader

Meanwhile... nasdaq prices were within 20 points of all time highs today. Tariff's aren't having decimating effect on the economy(yet?) that mainstream media would have us believe. Not saying they are good/bad/etc, I don't care, I'm only interested in their effects on markets.

This whole tariff brouhaha has created the best summer for day traders I've ever observed. Normally, market participants take all of summer off...because it's horrible. No volume, no volatility...etc. This summer has been gangbusters in the market.

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I think the market knows how healthy the US economy is. 4% growth in Q2, low 3.7% unemployment rate, labor market near full employment, rising interest rate and lower corporate tax has encouraged money to flow from emerging markets back to US. Emerging market is experiencing capital outflow very similar to the events preceding the asian financial crisis in 1998.

As for China, In 2016, a stunning 68.0 percent of China’s overall merchandise trade surplus related to sales to the U.S. In 2017, that figure increased to 88.8 percent. Trade-surplus countries, as history shows, generally suffer more in trade wars.

Looks like Chinese stock market knows this too. Shanghai and Hang Seng down 1.5% on this news. China is the world's worst performer in first half of 2018, down 25% from january peak.

The stock market is not the economy. The two can (and often) do very different things.

https://www.betterment.com/resources/economy-vs-stock-market...

Today's stock market performance shows investor views of the future. The author of that articles seems to think its the reverse which isnt true.

> Today's stock market performance shows investor views of the future.

...of returns to capital, which, again, is not the whole of the economy, or guaranteed to be representative of the whole of the economy.

Moreover, "... of returns to capital, in comparison to doing other things with the money."

Still, I would suspect tariffs to generally hurt that.

The economy was doing well before he got into office and he passed large spending bills while also passing massive tax cuts (I never thought Republicans would be the ones doing a fiscal stimulus after some of the rhetoric during the recession) so it'll take a huge amount probably to take it really off kilter. Also it's a pretty safe assumption that all media ("mainstream" and otherwise) is over hyping things

The mainstream media has become a terrible place for any sort of rational discussion. They're too busy criticizing Trump to analyze the impact of these moves.

I have zero love for the man, but it's clear that the US has the upper hand in this trade war and should be able to squeeze China for better deals.

> Tariff's aren't having decimating effect on the economy(yet?) that mainstream media would have us believe.

Many of the announced tariffs aren't in effect, and stock (and, for that matter, other capital) markets aren't the whole of the economy.

Given the tariffs only started being applied _last friday_, and the targeted amount is/was tiny, how exactly would it have a "decimating effect on the economy" so fast? Markets are lagging indicators - they'll react to whatever months or quarters from now...

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