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Comment by amriksohata | Hacker News Reader

We use the words after the fall, but some EU countries like spain, Italy and Greece are still on the brink with massive youth unemployment

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The problems in Greece were not caused by the credit crisis. Sooner or later Greece's model of government spending without a solid tax regime would have collapsed, the crisis only made the underlying problems more apparent.

Without the Euro, the greek central bank could have increased inflation and downvalued the Drachma, so the government could spend, spend, spend. This was the Modus Operandi before the Euro.

I don't say, that this is a responsible way of managing a countrys finances, but if the alternative is increasing infant mortality and extreme unemployment for almost a decade, I can't see whats so bad about that.

Greece infant mortality has been decreasing since 2004 [1] [2]

[1] https://knoema.com/atlas/Greece/topics/Demographics/Mortalit... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/806917/infant-mortality-...

So you don't dispute the extreme unemployment then?

I certainly agree with the MO of inflation in Greece pre euro. I'm not sure about the real unemployment situation, but I only know about a few islands, not the mainland. There a lot of people work cash in hand in the tourist trade, they are technically unemployed (and their businesses pay very little in taxation as most of the money isn't declared)

Greece should never have been allowed into the euro in the first place. The EU is essential for Greeks, many of whom have gone to other parts of the EU to work, just like Americans left Detroit after 2008.

There were studies published showing acute increases in infant mortality during the last few years.

I haven't read through them myself, only second hand reports of the findings.

> the greek central bank could have increased inflation and downvalued the Drachma

This only works for so long. There is a reason the Venezuelan and Argentinian model predictably hits the rocks after a few decades.

In Venezuela's case it has more to do with the price of oil

And Nationalizing oil infrastructure and then failing to operate and maintain it properly.

"Without the Euro, the greek central bank could have increased inflation and downvalued the Drachma, so the government could spend, spend, spend. "

Would that work for Greece, or would it just become hyperinflation?

Luckily we have some data about that.

Was Greece growing more or less in average before the Euro?

Did they suffer hyperinflation before the Euro?

Is the current Greek economy healthy with the Euro constraints? Has it improved with the "austerity" imposed?

It seemed to work for many years before the Euro

And what are your thoughts regarding Spain and Italy?

Italy's problems are a bit similar to Greece's but their economy is just a lot stronger. In Spain it was clearly the inflated housing market that caused the problems.

Italy is like two countries - the North has a strong economy, the South seems to have mainly agriculture, unemployment and mafia. Think of any famous Italian brand (or look at any Italian machinery), it's probably from north of Rome.

It doesn't help there massive amounts of refugees flooding into those countries as well. I realize people are fleeing war and violence, but they're going to countries where there isn't any jobs, and the economic situation is dire.

It's the worst possible scenario. They're leaving their home countries with nothing and arriving with an even bleaker future ahead of them.

If they are leaving a place of "war and violence", I am sure some unemployment as the worst social condition hardly could be construed as an "even bleaker future ahead".

There aren't, though. Immigration has dropped a lot in 2016, and again in 2017. Mediterranean crosses more than halved from 2016 to 2017. Last year, the EU only granted protection to 540k persons, in an EU with over 500M inhabitants.

Not according to the articles I've been reading:

25.03.2018:

https://www.dw.com/en/on-the-edge-of-the-eu-refugee-flows-fl...

It's not clear how many make it across. But last year alone, officials from Frontex, the EU's border agency, said they intercepted 5,500 illegal crossings, a whopping 80 percent rise compared to the previous year.

During that same period, Turkish authorities told the United Nations they had intercepted nearly 21,000 people, more than triple the number reported the previous year.

29.9.2017:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/29/surge-in-migra...

The number of people arriving, across land and sea borders, has more than doubled since the beginning of the summer. Authorities estimate arrivals are now at their highest level since March 2016, with over 200 men, women and children being registered every day.

“We’re living the days of 2015,” said Pantelis Dimitriou from Iliaktida, a local NGO on Lesbos operating accommodation and support centres for the newly arrived. “The flows have become huge. From around 50 to 60 in early July they are now at more than 200 every day.

2.7.2017:

https://gulfnews.com/news/europe/italy/italy-overwhelmed-by-...

But it is also a reflection of Italy’s years on the migration front lines with little help from the rest of Europe. More than 82,000 people have arrived in Italy this year, a 20 per cent increase over the same period last year, according to the United Nations refugee agency.

Under current EU rules, asylum seekers are supposed to apply for protection in the first EU country that they enter. At the height of the refugee crisis in late 2015, EU leaders set up a quota system to try to distribute some of the refugees from the main arrival nations of Greece and Italy, but it has barely gotten off the ground.

The influx has strained Italian infrastructure — and the goodwill of Italian voters.

You're seeing peaks and overestimating. For example, in the first report Frontex talked about a 80% increase, but that was just about those 3 months. Look at their full year report:

"Frontex reported on Tuesday that the number of people illegally crossing into the European Union had fallen by 60 percent in 2017 compared to the previous year. "

http://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/7683/eu-agency-frontex-r...

That second link is also about a short period where they were seeing a lot of people per day, but that has nothing to do with the total numbers on a year basis.

Yes, the start of 2017 was high, yet the total was much lower.

I know some Mediterranean economies could be a bit stronger and the Dublin Regulation isn't really working that well, but you'll have a hard time convincing anyone fleeing barrel bombs that things are better in Eritrea or Syria than in Spain.

There are no longer "massive amounts of refugees flooding into the country" but that now-false perception won't go away

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