Comment by austenallred | Hacker News Reader

Comment by austenallred | Hacker News Reader

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OK, sure, but call it 4850 of 5000 when everyone says there wasn't a prayer of making it is pretty remarkable. Call it 97% of the way. The fact that they built out a tent and hustled 24/7 to hit the goal is impressive to me.

Overall it's pretty classic Tesla/Musk. Predict the absolutely impossible, get 97% of the way there, and regardless of how you slice it the only thing that's not impressive is the facxt that they didn't meet the arbitrary guideline. They still crushed everything that anyone else thought was possible, so IMO it's a victory just a hollow one.

Will they be able to repeat this sustainably? Probably not unless they figure some other things out, but the point is that it's within striking distance. The company has a shot at profitability in the near future, and I see Teslas everywhere now.

In the past they missed it drastically; the number is important because if they can figure out a way to get to that level of production they have the chance to become cashflow positive relatively quickly.

Yeah agree, I see no difference between 4850 and 5000 - people are so hung up in other comments on calling this a failure. It shows it’s possible, the rocket just missed the landing a bunch of times, nobody cares about that now.

Yeah, but this is sort of like if SpaceX said their goal was to ship a big chunk of rock to the moon on two rockets within a week. But no matter how hard they tried, they just couldn't get it all on two rockets, so as time was running out they built a third rocket out of spare parts from the first and launched them so they would land just in time and claim their goal. "See, we have shown that it is possible!" they would exclaim.

Except, I might say, you said you could do it with two indoor assembly lines but you needed a third outdoor line at full capacity, so you didn't show anything. We have no time to build more indoor space and we can't just keep building assembly lines in tents out of spare parts, man, they break down, it has to work with two indoor assembly lines so they will work long-term. You still need a 50% improvement in your assembly speed before you can take down that tent!

Plus, even though you had an third rocket when you assured us 2 was plenty, one of the rockets was 5 hours late. A whole extra rocket and still late?

It's not the number. It's the fact that people can't count on what the company says. So it's always a case of over promise and under deliver. So it's easy to focus on that fact and call the company and its founder flaky. Few companies can survive that.

But the reality is that they eventually deliver and Musk can keep investors engaged which keeps the company going with more cash. Even reaching 4850 is a big deal.

The real stretch goal is reaching profitability. I hope that happens soon.

If company promises to make me a car on a date and misses it by 3% of a year (1 day?) I don't care. If they miss it by 6 months or a year I care.

>I see Teslas everywhere now.

Meaning you live in one of 4 coastal cities. Teslas are exceedingly rare everywhere but the wealthiest cities.

I see them all over in Utah. In the coastal cities it feels like 1/4 of the cars on the road.

I see them quite often in New Zealand, but saw my first Lamborghini in the flesh the other day!

Don't Lambos cost slightly more than even the fanciest Tesla?

I live in a small state University town in South Georgia and there are at least 3 model S and a model x running around time.

I saw dozens of them on a recent trip to Paris. They were mostly taxis

Teslas are exceedingly rare everywhere but the wealthiest cities.

...recent trip to Paris.

Yeah... a notably wealthy city.

I see them often in north florida. They aren't as common as other luxury sedans, but I see them about as often as Pontiacs, which is to say not everywhere but a lot.

You do realize that there aren't many Pontiacs on the road, and fewer every day? They closed over 9 years ago.

Anyway I live near Philly. I've seen a few dozen Model S in my life, one X and no 3s yet.

I see a lot in Colorado and have been seeing them for a couple of years

Even in Dallas i saw them over and over again.

I’ve seen a couple in New Orleans, and we are by no means wealthy.

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