Betteridge's law would suggest that the answer is "no". In fact, they have already failed to reinvent it, and are reverting to standard practices in some sense.
In fact Tesla is ill equipped to handle the flood of EV competition. Once Elon is forced to leave Tesla, it will be the end of the brand.
There's just no way I would put down 70k for a Tesla when there are so many superior options coming down in the next 2 years.
I'd even reckon Tesla won't be around within 5 years.
The automotive market is filled with energetic visionaries who ultimately crushed by established automotive giants. Tesla is no exception in fact it will be far more crushing in that they basically paved a way forward for EV and other brands will fully reap the profit, not Tesla.
Such is the cold reality of a saturated race to zero market. Tesla is not even a luxury brand like BMW or Lexus. It's steaming pile of shit that kills drivers on autopilot.
Bob Lutz said w/o Tesla my Volt (or now Bolt) would not exist.
1) EVs are slow 2) EVs can go far on a single charge 3) EVs are ugly 4) Batteries degrade a lot over time 5) EVs are expensive.
etc, etc, etc
Tesla has knocked out most of those bullet points.
That pressure is dictated by the administration in power and the current administration has already started the process of rolling back the prior administration's regulations by changing CAFE requirements. In addition to that they've also questioned that Waiver that gives CARB it's authority. If successful they would strip CA of it's regulatory power.
> plus incentives to buy EVs matter too.
And those expire. Once Nissan hit's 300k units of the Leaf sold in the US they'll lose their credit and there will be very little motivation for people to purchase it. Unless they're able to significantly reduce the MSRP or dramatically increase the batteryt capacity, I wouldn't be surprised if the ceased production shortly after hitting 300k units.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicl...
1) Oil companies don't want them. 2) Dealerships don't want them. 3) Automakers don't want them.
Tesla's energy has forced the issue.
Car companies want to sell cars that can make a profit. They're willing to wait for the technology to improve to the point that that is feasible.
Right now there isn’t an EV that even comes close to a Tesla. And even the traditional luxury brands like BMW and Mercedes are losing to Tesla on the tech side which is increasingly the part of luxury that people care about.
Everyone else keeps talking about these imaginary cars that other manufactures are going to make that are going to put Tesla out of business. It’s been FIVE YEARS of that talk… and nothing.
1) Dealerships: they still hate selling EVs. (My personal experience - my GM dealer spent hours trying to convince me to not by my Volt).
2) Charging: Tesla has the only serious world-wide charging network.
3) Software: Telsa (for good or bad) updates their software all the time. People get 'goodies' every few months. My Volt, only a handful of VERY minor software updates in five years. People are coming to expect that.
Model S: 11,730 Model X: 10,070 Model 3: 8,180
We know that established car manufacturers can ramp up quickly if they want to. Can Tesla? So far, the evidence indicates they cannot.
>We know that established car manufacturers can ramp up quickly if they want to.
The evidence so far indicates that they don't.
I am sure bmw or Audi can release a fully electric sedan to compete with Tesla, but most people I know who own bmw or Audi - they don’t like the idea of a fully electric car. They want a sense of security in having a gas engine. I guess the market is just too small for bmw and Audi to even try and go compete with Tesla at the moment. Maybe later...
So I expect that EVs with range-extenders to launch first, but there still doesn't seem to be any major commitments along that front.
Yep, but I think many others will have to go through the same journey before they believe in having a pure-BEV.
I'll admit Tesla has a few quality issues to iron out but jeebuz, every modern car has HORRIBLE software implementation(s). Horrible UI, buggy infotainment, resets, etc.
At least with Tesla you'll get constant upgrades and updates. Tesla's choice of almost no hardware interface, again, mimics the iPhone. Before that, everyone crammed a crappy keyboard on the phone that it turns out you don't need. "But how will I compose emails!?"
Slowly, and not-at-all in the rain being the answer.
Touchscreen controls sure are flashy, but as far as I'm concerned when employed in a multi-ton piece of machinery traveling at 60+mph they're borderline homicidal. I know I'm not the only one who thinks this way.
I'm open to voice controls. I don't like speaking to machines, but having machines speak to me is something I appreciate (for instance I always have my GPS talk to me, I never look at the screen) and I could see myself coming around on talking to machines. But a big old glorified ipad stuck in the dash? No way.
I much preferred the fully manual controls on the late 90s early 2000 BMWs without nav to ANYTHING they have put out since. Mercedes is even worse with multiple different input gimmicks, all of which are hard to use. It’s like every year they make it worse. Somehow.
Tesla can improve with voice commands and better mapping of steering wheel controls but everyone else really just needs to scrap their entire UI and start over because their current software is just 15 years of monkey patches from the first navigation control models in the early 2000s.
So much talk about fantastic new options coming to market "real soon now", and I'm all for that. What seems to be missing is the orders for batteries (cells or packs) for any large scale manufacturing of an EV line.
That'll be the actual indicator that someone is finally taking EVs seriously, and not just using it for a marketing opportunity.
If I had a dollar for every fuel cell car I see in a year I'd have... a dollar.
I'm afraid to say that today even Chinese do.
For the under $30k niche, Chinese automakers completely aced the process.
On other hand, all Chinese "Tesla killers" to be, came out with really awful cars which, according to what first owners say, are prone to rapid disassembly after few minutes of driving in bad road conditions.
Few people who drove Nio ES8 for example can't hold expletives for the suspension setup, and extreme body flexing that makes doors to not to close after a single rough ride. Were not for their NDAs, Nio's creditors would've been calling back their loans now.
Honestly,how hard do you think it is for a gas station to provide chargers? It isn't rocket science.
Are you saying Tesla is putting supercharger rollouts on hold? I just listened to the latest shareholder meeting and I don’t believe I heard anything like that. Usually they’re always expanding that network.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent_encumbrance_of_large_au...
Unless BP wants to eat the cost the way Tesla did it might take a long time to get a good network of chargers available.
The total capacity of superchargers for this metro area of 4m people is like a couple dozen charging spots.
I don't see why this is a relevant part of the discussion.