Ask HN: How to evaluate your competition for jobs as a more experienced worker?

I've heard not to compare yourself to others, but realistically, in a hiring process, it's a competition. I'm especially curious about what my competition would be like for experienced positions at larger tech companies. I'm not seeking a lead or principal engineer role, but more of a mid-level role on the cusp of senior.

For the most well known tech companies, would you expect your resume to be viewed differently from someone of similar length of experience, or is it more common to give interviews for resumes that match a certain background? Let's say it's for a more generalist software engineer role that doesn't require a highly specialized skillset or education.

I'm not going to pretend that referrals can help get you short-listed for an interview. How much impact does it make really? Probability-wise, how much less of a chance would I have applying cold compared to getting in via referral?

I know of exactly one person who is working in the group of large tech companies I am interested in, but he is less experienced than me. And he was also kind of paranoid about giving his name away as a referral when he linked me to the profile of the recruiter that contacted him. More of a "you didn't hear this from me" kind of thing.

Curiously there is very little information on resources for more experienced developers on how to get into the large tech companies. I assume it's more of the same like with entry-level and junior jobs.