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To be fair, the economy was still fairly strong by that point. It wasn’t until 06-07 that the subprime lending really got out of hand, and even though 07 was technically when the recession started, it didn’t become a full-blown panic until 2008 when Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns collapsed.

The yield curve is like seeing upturned leaves in the wind: a storm may coming, but it’s not clear when.

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My knowledge of predicting recessions is unchanged, but my way of looking at leaves on the ground is forever changed...

It’s not leaves on the ground, it’s the leaves on the branches to watch. When they’re upturned, it means that the pressure system is changing, which often precludes rain.

What he's referring to is not leaves on the ground, but upturned leaves on the trees. The conventional wisdom says that a storm is coming when you can see the backs of the leaves.

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