The convection rolls win out over diffusion because they dissipate heat faster and there is only so much heat. Life is no different. A structured low entropy process that dissipates energy faster than diffusion - there's no paradox or anything about emergent complexity.
The fundamental concepts here are pretty simple and any discussion concerning P(life) need to start by understanding what life is in the first place and how it can arise.
Point being: life isn't a rare thing or a mystery, anywhere in the universe you find energy gradients you'll find life.
There just isn't a conversation to have here. If we're alone it's because we're first. But we are almost certainly not alone. The universe is just really fucking big.