What value is there in an article like this? To make me more afraid? To indulge an author who always wanted to write a spy thriller?
Avoiding nuclear war should be one of our top priorities (and was one of the major factors deciding my 2016 vote), yet it's hardly ever discussed. It's a bit crazy.
That's your answer. By no means are Trump voters illiterate rubes. Their median income exceeded Hillary voters. People need to be reminded the stakes.
Regarding the access to the button, would you prefer to have egoistic, emotional man or rational and cold one, like Gen. Buck from "Dr. Strangelove"?
Even if they're off by an order of magnitude, it means that although highly unlikely in a single year, it means that it's fairly probable to happen within a single century.
One argument against those odds is that it gives a probability of nuclear war happening between 1945 and 2018 well above 50%. But given the several very close calls we've had I think that number seems very real. Remember that both the Cavaliers and Donald Trump had odds around the 20% mark in 2016, yet both won. Unlikely does not mean impossible.
So I agree, lowering both the probability and severity of nuclear war should be a top priority for politicians and those who elect them. Maybe not as high as global warming, but close behind it IMO.
I have seen this work first hand myself when India and Pakistan mobilized their militaries on a large scale a couple of times after the 1998 nuclear tests by both nations. A few articles that came out during that time about the effects of nuclear weapons decidedly served to cool off the fervor of several uber-patriotic people I knew.