Messi Walks Better Than Most Players Run
fivethirtyeight.com
fivethirtyeight.com
A lot of effort in sports and business is wasted by correcting from incorrect predictions. What Messi is good at is predicting where and when to be to maximize the probability of a successful outcome.
Watching him play is a curiosity as well, unlike a lot of other players who make their decision to pass or continue after their first move, Messi almost always continues to the second move when he has the ball.
He probably turns it over at a higher rate than most, but his touches typically occur in those previously mentioned high probability positions on the field, meaning that when he's not turning it over, he's putting shots on goal.
Since the cost of a turnover really isn't that high given the rate of change of possession in the game, he seems to be acting optimally.
Edit and addendum:
The guy who's always out fundraising might look like he's doing a lot of work, but it's very likely that the guy who only does the roadshow when the P_success is high will outperform the jackrabbit.
Of course this is just a superficial comment and take it with some salt, I have no clue what goes on the pitch, it might also be that he cannot sustain a full 90min and be productive attacking while also doing a degree of defense.
It's a fun read - you have there James, KD, Harden, AD - basically all the elite players excluding Curry. On top of that, you have factually very fast players s.a Wall, Russ and Lillard. I'll have to take James' view that this is one stupid meaningless stat.
On a side note, I really wish they would name football by its proper name: football, not soccer. To the billions of people who follow it globally that's the name of the sport.
Again, it's petty, but I'm English and it's a pet peeve of mine.
Your country is not the world or the universe, even if everyday language indicates that. Language use seems to affect subconscious behavior, even if not intended.
Anyway, my point is, you have been manipulated through your language.
Someone in /r/BritishProblems called a zebra crossing a "crosswalk" the other day and as an en-gb native I couldn't help but be scandalised! ;o)
Soccer is an English term invented in the 19th century. It spread to a number of Anglosphere countries in a similar manner to all sorts of words from 19th century England. It is currently used in Canada, the US, Ireland[1], South Africa, Australia, New Zealand etc.
The idea that soccer is an "Americanism" simultaneously requires you to believe that (a) that only Americans use the term and (b) that Americans are ignorant of the rest of the world.
The reality, of course, is that these countries are using a term that has existed for over a century and is a borrowed word from England. Each of these countries have a prominent sport containing the word football(various rugby codes, american football, gaelic sports), and therefore it was convenient to retain the term soccer.
This, of course, does not jive very well with lazy anti-Americanism however, which generally seems to be the point of the exercise.
[1] I know, I know.
The core point is that while there are regional differences none of those countries have anywhere near the same level of media influence as America, so yes, it is an Americanism like it or not. And when writing an article literally about Football for an international audience published on the internet then just call it by its name not the regional one used locally. It seems lazy not to.
Anyway it's just a pet peeve of mine (and plenty of others), it doesn't have to be logical.
The vast majority of takes on the Internet about the word soccer are lazy anti-Americanism. I accept that it's just a pet peeve for you, but I was addressing the general discourse on the term.
With regards to 538 using the term soccer, it is explicitly an American website. 538 is the number of electors in the US electoral college. The majority of readers are American, therefore it seems reasonable to use the term soccer.
You could argue that they should just use the term football and have the reader infer from context which sport it is, but then we wouldn't be having this discussion if you thought that was an acceptable solution :P
As a Melburnian I take a passing interest every 4 years in the 'Socceroos' but we have our own code that dates back to the 1850s, with influences from the indigenous game of "Marngrook". Footy is footy, soccer is soccer and we find labels such as the 'world game' or 'beautiful game' rather quaint.
Be aware that your language prescriptivism can be seen as a form of cultural imperialism.
In most languages, it is not called football, and is also neither a combination of foot and ball.
Australians are under the Australian monarchy, which is not the same monarchy as the UK.
The same monarch, but not the same monarchy.
That said local soccer teams tend to call themselves Football clubs use the initials FC. The local soccer team where I live is "Sydney FC".
I will say A-League games are pretty good to go to the atmosphere at live games is a lot better than Rugby League games. The crowd really gets into it. My friend is a season ticket holder and he drags me along to A-League games semi-regularly and even sitting in the members area at the matches is pretty good.
The more interesting question is why rugby football is called football. But I guess, in modern parlance, it often isn't.
Things are named and pronounced differently in different languages.
The fact is, "football" was already taken in the American vocabulary by the time soccer rose to popularity in the US.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football#Establishment_of_mode...
source: http://ns.umich.edu/Releases/2014/June14/Its-football-not-so...
The UK has a lot of slang. Soccer is a slang term sometimes used in informal settings.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskUK/comments/8rnuyh/older_users_i...
https://www.britannica.com/story/why-do-some-people-call-foo...
- American Football
- Canadian Football
- Gaelic Football
- Aussie Rules Football
- Rugby Union
- Rugby League
There are a lot of (related) sports called football. The English shortened Association to Soccer and the name stuck in The States, Canada and other places. It's just as proper as football.
I remember going to a Superbowl party with some coworkers, and one of em absolutely blew me away with their game knowledge. I've never enjoyed a Superbowl party as much as that one. He was making tons of calls and explaining everything in a really friendly and approachable way. It was impossible to not be at the edge of your seat as you watched each play being made.
I'm pretty sure this also extends to eSports, like StarCraft 2. Since I was pretty hooked on the game I watched tons of games and I understood the game pretty well for a few years. A lot of my sports-loving friends were pretty skeptical of the whole "eSports" thing, but they became true believers when I invited em over and gave me play by play explanations of what was going on.
I had a similar experience and it's really nice, you realise you miss so much of the actual game if you just follow the ball blindly. That being said it's still enjoyable.
Cheers to all the people who take the time to explain the game like that to others!
As a result, a great deal of the actions you will see will be necessarily improvisory - which makes those moments of rare brilliance all the more amazing. Especially given the stakes often at hand during these moments.
If something like gymnastics is like classical music recitals, then football is like jazz music ensemble
It was in Oxford, where both Rugby and Association football are commonly played at the university level, that the term soccer came up, as an abbreviation of “association”, in the same vein as rugby football is referred to as rugger — the -er ending is a common form of local slang, and is why Boris Johnson is often referred to as Bozzer.
Soccer isn't called that because of American football, the name "soccer" arose in UK where lots of towns have their own style of football game. It obviously caught on as a name in USA because they also have a naming conflict.
I too hate the name soccer, because of what I had inculcated in to me as a child.
Good players also do sneaky things like take a little longer to recover from a hard check and then, when everyone has skated away from them while they're still down on the ice, slowly sneak into a prime scoring position behind the defensive players where they can't be easily seen.
In your other example, the defense has already made the mistake by throwing a big check that didn't win the puck. They're out of position, and the rare sneaky opportunity isn't worth sacrificing pressure or risking losing the puck. It's fun when it happens, but not a strong game plan.
Some players are just really, really good at "disappearing". I mentioned two of the ways that they do it: just gliding out from behind the net on the weak side (skating very lightly) is one, and hanging back on the weak side after a hard check is another. Of course, there also has to be players that can get the puck to that guy, otherwise, these techniques don't amount to much.
messi definitely is one of those players who plays in a smart way where he doesn't need to run too much to tire himself out. however i also believe that there is a lot of value in a fast paced ball movement. the sort of play gets everybody involved in a high energy mental sort of way, whereas messi's relatively low energy, whilst clearly effective, is only effective because messi is such a fantastic/smart dribbler
Mapping this to software teams: Messi would be the super-smart rockstar developer who doesn't get bogged down with busy work or bug-fixes. If we compare his rate of shipping software compared to his team-mates (or other more balanced teams), we'd have to control for how the rest of the team clears his way.
Unfortunately, the pundits they choose as TV analysts are typically not well versed in stats and probability, and often all you get from them is the experience of having played.
There was a thing about expected goals recently, where the TV expert dismissed it. I think it's a sensible thing to look at.
Messi is obviously one of the best players ever, but his stats are inflated by playing in one of the dominant club teams. His stats for the national team while still very good are not that much better.
Then the superstar retires, memory of the absurd criticism is obscured by a haze of nostalgia, and they become examples of perfection which the next generation of superstars can't possibly live up to.
Messi is arguably the best ever. If he's not good enough for you, if he's not perfect enough for you, you're going to be disappointed with life and the human beings in it.
This could be from offline analysis of the video.
The NFL and NBA already have it, as do college (American) football teams, AFAIK. I don't know about American baseball, but I do know that they track things like the rotational velocity of pitches and, very trendy now, the 'launch angle' of a batted ball (I suppose the movement of baseball players, other than the efficiency of fielders responding to a ball, is neither interesting nor unpredictable).
Here's an article about that data as applied to Lebron James, who apparently is very efficient with his movement like Messi.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17333058
I wonder why all sports don't put sensors in balls to eliminate judgment calls by referees, but perhaps either it's not worth the expense, it won't bring in more fans, or like self-driving cars, the computer errors will seem egregious to fans.
I will give my own experience, as a TERRIBLE sport player at any sport you can name on earth, and one of the worst soccer players you could met.
Still, eventually I was selected for many street plays (were players are more brutal, being the most nerd is a huge disadvantage, and most are very "serios" in the game).
WORST, in the streets of Colombia we play "mini soccer"/futsal. Is even more fast paced, the space is limited, and not much time to be idle, and the damm ball is heavier and HURT MUCH MUCH MORE. The goalkeeper is the more insane/brave of all. Is so fast that we don't play for time (like soccer) but up to # of scores (ie: "The game is to the first to score 12")
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> Is he doing it deliberately?
Totally. Just the fact he walks much more and move tell it.
In my case, I do it to be usefull as bad player, I become a "strategic hindrance".
I play defense most of time, because lack of qualities for offense but also, because I play strategy because my body have not time to act fast :)
I always look at the play, and just move to where the ball must come in. Most player get in a hurry when get the ball and try hard to be liberated from the burden -and is true for "professionals" look at plays long enough and it become obvious.
So this mean a) pass it fast, or b) run like hell and pass it fast. So, I get into position and suddenly I was always in the most inconvenient of the places for the opposite team. (this was the fact I get selected: People start to note that I ruin a lot of plays!)
Rarely I'm able to get the ball, and is easy to overcome me with dribbles.
However, disrupt the flow is more than enough.
Even when other players let me alone with the goalkeeper, I just move to cover the largest angles in the field, to obstruct them.
This work most of time. I force them to fire, or try to get around me, that disrupt the flow and allow to lost control or to the goalkeeper to do his play - In mini soccer, the goalkeeper is more offensive-.
Now, because most latin-america players play from young age -mean street soccer- I suspect you quickly get a sense of movement/space faster (mini soccer mean many more plays mean many more experience).
And if you have talent, like Messi, apply the same idea and now know how take over the ball?
You have the key to victory.
Oh wait, no, sorry: the complete opposite of that. This guy exhibits extreme outlier behaviour while also being one of the most successful players in the game. Maybe there's something worth analysing in terms of why that might be. You know, like the research referenced in this article.