I think previous failures and successes up your chances for success in subsequent adventures. The failures teach. The successes teach and come with a payout. The subsequent ventures make it easier to retain control with your private money, as does the trust gained from previous successes, and your own experience.

I think Musk has improved his chances of success by the principles above and is improving his future chances by consolidating technologies in his companies. Solar City, Tesla battery technologies, The Boring Company's use of Model X chassis, The Boring company using the Hyperloop concept?

Of course, none of this would be possible without some runway, either investors or private money.

It's not being lucky or being good. It's being lucky and being good. Nobody can succeed without both.

Of course there are occasional exceptions where somebody is successful purely through luck. However, very rarely is somebody successful with no amount of luck at all. It's hard to pin down just how much of an influence random chance has had in this chaotic world.

However there are plenty of very good and hardworking people who have yet to overcome a lack of good circumstances. The world is filled with failed geniuses.