The Scooter Economy
stratechery.com
stratechery.com
i've always assumed the city govt was just disfunctional, but the speed with which they removed the menace of convenient, ecofriendly scooters makes me wonder if they're actually malevolent, somehow.
If it's one thing entitled early adopters and east bay commuters have in common, it's that they DGAF about the sense of community in SF. So they park these things in the most selfish ways possible. I swear some of them have to be doing it on purpose. I've seen them blocking turn styles at embarcadero station before.
I had a friend visiting from out of state and usually the first criticism of SF I hear is something about homelessness as we pass through the 'loin. But this time we were by embarcadero and it was "did a scooter gang of children all get raptured at once?"
No, feces and shattered glass are not a major impediment; wheelchair tires can usually go over them, and additionally, area taken up by individual instances of feces on the street is measured in square inches, so wheelchairs can typically be navigated such that the wheels avoid touching them.
Yes, tent cities are also an impediment, which is why the city actively works to get rid of them, even implementing short-term solutions that do no good and possibly harm in the long run like having the police and community workers forcibly clear them. Not to mention the literal hundreds of millions of dollars a year the city spends on homeless programs, which is many, many orders of magnitude more than they’ve spent on any kind of regulation of scooters.
With that said, I have heard very few people voice such completely reasonable concerns. Most of the complaints about scooters I've encountered from actual people seem to hinge on them looking funny, especially when in use. And even those are rare. Most people don't seem to care, suggesting that scooters are not genuinely unpopular.
Your concerns are real, and very important. Yet, they don't seem to bear much on scooters in the public consciousness. Have you considered that there may be other factors at work in the minds of most?
The answer (supposedly) is due to widespread anti-littering campaigns and the new ubiquity of trash cans. Why can't there be similar measures for scooters? Painting lines on sidewalks saying "it's OK to park a scooter here!" (painting lines being an option that costs almost nothing and is completed extremely quickly) combined with signage saying "you must park dockless scooters only in the lines or else $250 fine" (akin to only throwing trash in trash bins or else fine).
Scooters aren't inherently problematic, it's the sclerotic municipalities which refuse to adapt to changing circumstances who are the real culprits.
This is why I hate the things.
Let's just say that I disagree.
Sure, ideally, the scooter company should pay some kind of tax or fee to help pay for the infrastructure, but I'm not convinced that it needs to be a special tax or fee, applied only to the scooter companies, beyond typical general corporate income taxes etc. that the scooter company is already paying. Particularly because the infrastructure costs involved are cheap. In my opinion, society is better served by government moving quickly to provide needed services out of a general fund, than it is by delaying action for months or years just so that expenditures are 100% just instead of 99.9999% just. There is a balance...
As for the specific solution you suggested, I think that sounds great, although it isn’t obvious to me that it would “cost nothing”. At the very least, deciding on parking spots for them seems like it would take a lot of a bunch of government employees’ time. It certainly seems reasonable to me to start with a permitting system on the handful of companies, which seems like it would take much less time to implement.
Because when your only hammer is regulation everything else is a nail.
Edit: this isn't meant negatively. If you ask a painter what will make your house nicer they'll tell you to paint it. If you ask an organization that creates and enforces legislation to solve a problem they'll try to legislate it out of existence. Problems are solved with the tools at hand.
PS: A much better solution IMO is to simply pick them up and sell em for scrap. Problem solved.
I think it’s definitly more of a case of NIMBYism and tech hate than anything else.
Pretty sure they're not more unpopular than the human feces and used needles people are also stepping over, yet those haven't been addressed in SF yet. By comparison, Vancouver, New York, Chicago, Miami, and many other big cities don't have such problems, and SF is getting worse every year.
Personally, I'd be fine with scooters if they were never used or stored on sidewalks. Which will happen right after bicyclists start obeying traffic laws...
New York is dirty. It's very dense for the US and the trash collection is on the sidewalk in front of businesses, meaning you are walking around trash on a daily basis.
Chicago is one of the cleanest cities in the US, largely because of the alley system built after the Great Chicago Fire.
It's likely not entirely about the scooters themselves but what they represent and how the process has been implented. The city streets are funded by public money and the companies didn't treat residents with adequate respect or forethought before dumping scooters all over the city.
To me it is a physical manisfestation of startup culture and that's why many people hate them. Why consider the problems in advance, let's just do it and see what happens.
my reaction is perhaps a little overheated, but it's frustrating to see a city that is completely inept at solving its many real problems so quickly and effecively squash something that is at worst a minor inconvenience and at best actually a signifcant boon.
FTFY, the third-world style shantytowns and tent cities, along with the accompanying feces and detritus, are prolific in every major west coast city including SF, LA, Seattle, Portland, and many of the smaller hubs too. There is a full blown homeless crisis that is completely ignored by nearly everyone.
1. Wouldn't it be a great business for thieves to specialize in stealing these and finding out a way to fence them in large quantities?
2. How can it be economical to pay people to lug these to their homes and charge them on a regular basis?
3. With tires that small, and with many riders riding them that are not experienced with skateboarding and other small-tired vehicles (which can get viciously trapped in crevasses/potholes while driving full speed) isn't the risk of injury pretty high, far higher than a bicycle?
4. What is the reliability like on these things? It seems like it would be a device with pretty frequent electrical problems and loose connections.
I'm mostly a fan of the idea BTW, I just am unclear of the economics...
While the cops will hardly send in a SWAT team to nab offenders there's a very real risk, in that insurers will not pay if you're involved in an accident.
- they must ride where bikes go. This means they must use bike paths if available and stay of the sidewalk
- Users must be 16 or older. Under 16 but over 14 can use them but must have a Mofa license.
- max speed must be under 20km/h
- helmets are not required.
I have however only ever seen people using them on the sidewalk :/
I was surprised to see this, given that Atlanta is covered in scooters. (We usually are on the later side of these rollouts.)
Lime is claiming they have a presence in Chicago, so maybe they just haven't made it to your neighborhood yet.
I'll be surprised if the loop wasn't drowning in scoots by end of summer.
There might be some cultural differences that might make things different for scooters in America, but if the service is offered very cheaply, and the scooters are unique enough in build to be useless for retrofitting other scooters, then I don't see much of a market opportunity for fencing. Especially if the scooters have accurate GPS welded to their frames.
If scooters get popular then people will steal them. It only takes one person to figure out some way to monetize your scooters before all your scooters are disappearing and need to patch the exploit.
I'm betting that for awhile most scooters will be vulnerable to the typical "apply cordless drill in the right place" exploit.
The battery packs will probably be the most useful thing to scrapper. There will probably be a cottage industry of people repackaging them in more useful form factors and then selling the end result on eBay. The motors aren't going to be worth much but if you're already picking one apart you may as well pull the motor and toss it in the electric motors pile.
1. Scooters are indeed stolen. The batteries can be sold for around $50. "The Bird will chirp at you if you try to steal it, but they chirp so often that no one pays attention
2. From the charger's POV, they do it on the side: "in the end it pays for a fancy dinner" and "It’s like a game and I would do it even if the prices were halved, which they probably will be". From the company's point of view, would it really be a surprise if they were losing money?
[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/05/charg...
It's a shame cause I really like the analysis provided otherwise. Specially when numbers are brought in like today with the parking spaces.
I agree! I probably shouldn't have used the word "sell". Maybe "apply" works better
(am being facetious, but only somewhat)
If you have been following the developments in personal electric transportation, the timing is hardly random. The M365 was one of the first scooters that had the range and speed to be viable for rentals. The good idea was not low hanging, it was just taken by good founders before you realized it was good.
Um. I'll take the founders who designed and engineered the actual technology (i.e. the scooter, not the app). They will be the winners in the long run. Show me a great lithium/PV/manufacturing/fluids/materials team and I'll invest!
Uber can best reposition and charge scooters ofc, not bird or lime.
But very unclear that it will be worthwhile to do so. There is also the price that the consumer will bear for a scooter. When it's cheaper to own one's own after 30 days, and storage is trivial (not true with cars, true with scooters), not clear there is a rental business to be had.
Comparison: the UberX experience these days is terrible. Smelly cars, surly people. But popular still, bc because need it and it's the best option. Whaddya going to do? Drive yourself? That's impractical for UberX use cases.
When the Bird experience is no longer novel and the scooters cause broken arms and are smeared with urine, will people still use them? Or pop $300 for their own clean ones? Or walk? Both possible for all use cases.
Much of the demand comes from the novelty factor. (Cars are boring, especially the Prius, yet Uber was a winner from day one!)
When the novelty factor wears off, consumers will "get real" about their last-mile transpo options, and either there will be so many scooter services that the price is $0.25 + $0.50/min (Bird economics broken) OR you will buy your own scooter to have forever for $300 (Bird economics broken).
If there are multiple services, likely one of them can hang on long enough to take over the market as the others fail. If not, someone else can start a new one when all others fail and have gotten tired of the idea.
If it's not a winner takes all market and multiple players can coexist at the same time, then I don't understand the investment decision from the VC firms to value them so high so early. It feels like Uber/Lyft can easily get into this market and provide a better experience overall.
Riders will, all things being equal, use one service habitually
And, I'm wondering if this is really true. It hasn't been for me in the ride-sharing industry. I switch back and forth between services.
>> your typical tech first-adopter may have no problem checking multiple apps to catch a quick ride, but I suspect most riders would prefer to use the same app they already have on their phone.
Then again I'm more in the latter case. I only use Lyft because a) it's not Uber and b) I already installed it and set it up on my phone.
Of course the author was just visiting SF and only needed it temporarily - in that case I understand the need for a rental option, but you should be able to rent it for a whole week for little cost.
I am an owner of an electric scooter myself, but I do not enjoy the shared scooters lying around everywhere on the streets like trash. It is understandable to me why the numbers would be limited by the city.
also, believe me when i tell you that for SF at least, scooters are the least of your aesthetic concerns on the streets and sidewalks...
http://nordic.businessinsider.com/contentassets/15ba9de498c2...
This is a snarky but accurate restatement of your (commonly professed) belief.
i do agree having regs to dissuade people from blocking & riding on the sidewalk with scooters seems very reasonable.
once you have that i think scooters are basically problem free (except for maybe aesthetic concerns).
even w/o that, i still don't see how anyone reasonable could think scooters were anywhere near the top of the list of hazards of sf streets.
(perhaps they are a major inconvenience for wheelchair users?; i'd be interested in any first-hand accounts.)
Cars have all the problems you’ve mentioned and more and I’m also dissatisfied with how much public space we’ve set aside for them, but they also mostly stay off sidewalks and wait at street crossings, so at least we’ve also set aside space for pedestrians to get from one place to another that is usable even for those in wheelchairs.
I live in a smallish apartment in NYC and don't have room for a bike so city bike makes sense but I could see myself buying one of these and keeping it in the closet.
If I have to do that with a bike or scooter even once! in those months you mention it takes to pay itself off, then it's not worth it.
I don't want to have to carry my scooter into a crowded Illy just to meet someone for coffee.
They are not that light, but still vastly more portable than a bike and you don't need to worry about them being stolen from the street.
You'll see the usual thing, that looks like a motorcycle, and the new one, which you can put below your desk.
I just don't see how any of these rental scooter companies survive due to the capital and storage costs being so much lower than a car.
Remembering to charge isn't a big deal. I do it for my phone and my car. I would buy a second charger and keep it at work to keep down on the hassle. A lot of offices have bike storage, why not scooters?