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Comment by bthrm | Hacker News Reader

Nah, I doubt it. It will just take a few cases for people to give up on antivaxing.

One (completely nonsensical) theory I’ve heard from antivaxxers is that that polio is still widespread, even within the US, but doctors refuse to diagnose it (either because they’re part of the conspiracy or because they believe polio has been eradicated and therefore don’t consider it as a diagnosis). This is of course absurd on its face but that doesn’t matter to antivax folks.

There’s no way to predict how a reappearance would be interpreted by this community but I think they’d just say “see? This is what we were saying all along, vaccines don’t work, polio never went away.”

>One theory I’ve heard from antivaxxers is that that polio is still widespread, even within the US, but doctors refuse to diagnose it

Please take a look at this [1] & [2]. It is similar to what you are saying.

[1] https://www.livemint.com/Politics/XS6vPor5jFX3vKkaE7Ri6H/Ind...

[2] http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/is-india-actually-free...

Interesting stuff, thanks for posting it. I’m sure this is what’s informing what I heard. True or not it’s yet another reminder that politicians need to be informed by data and not the other way around.

> https://www.livemint.com/Politics/XS6vPor5jFX3vKkaE7Ri6H/Ind....

I don't really understand.

> “Most experts will tell you the cases of NPAFP have increased because of better surveillance. This is bunkum,” said Puliyel. “As per global benchmarks, as polio incidence comes down, the rate of NPAFP should also reduce. Instead, AFP cases have been increasing steadily.”

So does that mean the polio numbers are wrong? Doctors are not diagnosing polio as polio? That would be really concerning.

Also, being certified "polio-free" doesn't mean we stop vaccinating. Just that we switch to a less harmful version of the vaccine.

After all, with the facts at hand, polio cases have come down to zero in India. Similar ailments have seen a rise in reports. Why this is happening is a mystery not solved in the article. One theory is that govt surveillance has improved. Another is that the government/doctors are faking the polio numbers, basically suppressing actual polio cases. I strongly lean towards the former as an explanation.

This also does not have any bearing on the polio-free status and the state of polio vaccination. Seems like standard sensationalist "journalism" to me.

Please also read the second article. It is from 'The Hindu', one of the most (if not the most) respected news papers in India.

That would be a difficult claim to make, when Polio is only observed in the unvaccinated.

The theory goes that if you show symptoms consistent of polio the doctors say “have you been vaccinated?” If you haven’t then they say “must be polio” and if you have they say “well it can’t be polio, must be something else.”

In this case they called it "nonpolio accute flaccid paralysis" instead. This paper found incidence correlation with vaccination rates (more vaccines, more NPAFP):

http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/135/Supplement...

"NPAFP increased with the number of oral polio vaccine (OPV) doses used (R2 = 25.02%; P < .001). When effect of cumulative doses over the previous years was examined, the NPAFP rate in 2013 best correlated with the cumulative doses received in the previous 7 years (R2 = 57.16%), with 2012 excluded because data for this year were incomplete. This correlation was highly significant (P < .001). On multiple regression analysis, the number of OPV doses was the only factor that showed a positive correlation with the NPAFP rate."

These are separate diseases, are they not?

The one I hear is that polio was eliminated through improvements to public health, and the vaccine is just a toxic placebo.

Either way, it's not a matter of "I'd rather my child die of polio than be autistic." The autism thing is generally coupled with a belief that the vaccine doesn't prevent the disease anyway. They are woefully misinformed, but truly believe they're doing what's best for their children.

The AEFI with polio vaccines are often worse, and it is not autism that scare concerned people off. In India, the conditions in which these vaccines are administrated are truly pathetic. In most places these are Administrated by government pre-school teachers, who have zero medical aptitude. I have seen one being administrated by someone having sneezing/nasal congestion, with a hand towel one one hand, and take the vaccine from their hand purse, and administer the vaccine with zero concern of contaminating it...I mean, these are not stored in the recommended temperature or anything. They put these vaccine vials in their handbag and travel in open sunlight.

And I am not sure if it is contamination or something else, but the adverse effect often result in some sort of paralysis. If you take the kid to the doctors, first they will ignore you and say that vaccines cannot cause these effects. These are from the experience of another parent in India. You can see the interview here [1].

Government here is only interested in boasting the number of vaccinations given during their term. But have no concern about the aftermath, and things like this [2] often does not go anywhere. There are cases were a vaccine manufacture were able to provide vaccines that resulted in deaths of 4 kids, after the same companies vaccine was used in another campaign 2 years before that resulted in death of multiple children.

What I am saying is that, we should be careful.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E4WKDB-7pI&t=32s [2] http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health/heath-ministry-to-st...

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