Tesla short sellers lose $1B
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
In the left column the months (or years or days) you make the predictions in. Top months are the months you're making the predictions for. The trace (R) is the actual real value (forecast of January in January, i.e: you have the number).
So:
The forecast for October made in January is 22.
The forecast for October made in June is 13.
The forecast for October made in September is 42.
This way, we can track all forecasts and track errors. The chart has memory. The chart cuts through bullshit.
J F M A M J J A S O N D
J R 12 13 14 53 12 21 34 19 20 22 19
F - R 14 13 51 10 20 30 17 22 24 15
M - - R 51 11 27 35 19 20 21 19 12
A - - - R 55 17 20 32 18 21 28 19
M - - - - R 73 42 11 34 17 23 12
J - - - - - R 61 21 67 13 22 82
J - - - - - - R 42 11 34 17 23
A - - - - - - - R 42 11 34 17
S - - - - - - - - R 42 11 34
O - - - - - - - - - R 42 11
N - - - - - - - - - - R 12
D - - - - - - - - - - - R
Perhaps but I think you may misunderstand how these things work. "Nomura Instinet advising clients that the electric car maker's shares could rally 42 percent over the next year." is a sales pitch for people to become clients of Nomura and trade stuff. They have no interest in any one keeping score of their predictions. It's like "England may win the FA cup, place your bets with Ladbrokes" - not really about testability.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/grammar/british-grammar/unc...
The same applies to when I hear about something from certain people. A part of me expects to hear about Columbus' "discovery" of America any century now from a few folks.
[1] unless it's news about Sears
I thought that was kind of the original point of stock.
However, Tesla isn't immune to short-term stocks. It will fluctuate between 5x and 10x overvalued, e.g, the stock should really be at $50 but is trading around 300-400.
I'd be very happy if I shorted Tesla at $370 or whatever its high price was.
Challenges for sure, but “downward spiral”? Hyperbole.
Tesla is going to need to raise more money in less than a year (probably less than 6 months). If you truly don't believe that, I will happily take a bet.
Disclaimer: TSLA investor with extremely high limit order set in order to prevent my shares from being lent to short sellers
That what makes this particlar Musk promise so interesting and so challenging. It's too late to change the price or hardware set. He has to deliver with software-only solution...
It’s similar to how renewable projects are being bid on and sold today, with the price of the power being determined by what the equipment will cost several years in the future when it’s installed.
Sidenote: Tesla employees with stock comp are going to do very well when a short squeeze drives the stock price up. And they deserve that comp.
To people like myself, those who short Tesla aren't short an unprofitable car company. They're short a better future. I make no apologies for being willing to take a small loss to cause them a big one. Anyone considering shorting this stock should consider that I'm not alone in that sentiment.
https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-putting-a-high-limit-s...
Where did you get this idea from, anyway?
Look for TSLA to break $330 and it is going to make a move.
It's very probably they need to raise cash for their foray into China.
> If they make their 5k/week production target by the end of this month
How many months/years is that behind schedule? Even Twitter will eventually be profitable.
If nobody buys the shares after the IPO then there is no demand and the market cap drops to zero. There’s no reward for the people who took the initial risk on the company and then what’s the point?
Ever heard of corporate raiding? A healthy stock price prevents hostile takeovers. It creates a class of emitionally invested citizens in the case of other external threats. It lets the public subsidize bonuses to employees (stock options) and in the case of a merger gives the company an asset that isn’t cash that can make up part of the compensation.
Regardless, there is a pretty strong argument to make that shorting is actually healthy for the economy because it leads to creative destruction
So the response to the argument: investors support the company, short sellers support the investors.
e.g. for farmers, they can predict their harvest 5 months later, but can't know for sure.
They can short their own industry stocks. If the harvest goes good, they have crops to eat. If the harvest goes bad (e.g. forest fire), the short would net them some money.
Futures let farmer lock-in a sell price for the crops, but without any crops due to the fire, the sell price wouldn't matter
The schadenfreude crowd was waiting and hoping for MS to make a big misstep. Any slip in profit would reduce their P/E, and if the stock price leveled off they would get hit again when option exercises declined, taking them negative (fewer new employees also equals less stock revenue).
As one person put it, they were a bicycle. Stable while moving but would fall over as soon as they stopped. But I got bored of following MS long before those supposed hens came home to roost so I have no clue what really happened.
In the end, good products and strategies win. Betting against Tesla is dumb because they've proven the doubters wrong about their products and strategies over and over again. They've stayed right on course with the ten-year plan they laid out ten years ago, and every product they've built has been loved by an overwhelming majority of its owners. Not many companies can say that, not even successful ones.
Short sellers need to tip their caps and recognize that Tesla understands what it's doing better than they do. The longer it takes them to realize this, the more money they're going to lose.
There will always be an unproven next step. The point is that in each example where we have a clear conclusion, the conclusion has been favorable for Tesla. My money is on the Model 3 continuing this trend.
> Also, the stock is not traded on fundamentals as much as you or the rest of the public believes.
I never said (nor do I think) that the stock is traded on fundamentals.
This makes no sense in a trading environment. The reason that shortsellers are hovering is because Tesla is trading at aggressive multiples with aggressive business goals they show signs of missing. I'd like to see your "clear conclusions" that the model 3 is succeeding.
> I never said (nor do I think) that the stock is traded on fundamentals.
Semantics at this point.