Is there any verifiable time in history when such a complicated multi-actor system actually did increase wages? Or is this the cold fusion of government policy?
It also helped that the world was destroyed and the US was the only developed country with sufficient manufacturing capacity. High taxes or not, that sort of environment is not going to happen anytime soon.
>Income in excess of $400K/yr taxed at 90% ensured that businesses invested as management and shareholders weren't permitted to capture earnings.
But CEOs and executives rarely have high income/base pay. They're incentivized by the owners of the company via performance linked bonuses, payment via stock options, long term incentive bonuses, etc.
Not necessarily. While it is linked to wage growth, the increase in employment (and consumption) doesn't necessarily lead to overall inflation. It depends on the economy's capacity to absorb the extra consumption.
It might be the case that the additional consumption, particularly after a bust cycle with excess capacity, might lead to lower per-unit costs due to the utilization of fully depreciated assets and no need for additional capital investments.
This is usually captured in the NAIRU: non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Or the minimum level of unemployment that does not cause inflation to increase.
The funny thing is that if an any economist did prove a link between tax cuts and long term economic growth he wouldn't just win a Nobel, they'd knock down the Statue of Liberty and replace it with a statue of him. Alas, the evidence eludes all comers.
> And economic growth is not a matter of distribution and certainly related to deadweight losses.
Unfortunately this is exactly wrong. Economic growth is probably only a matter of distribution. No matter how hard the supply siders wish it, aggregate demand and a strong consumer base are all that really matters. As they say, show me a growing middle class and I'll show you economic growth.
Yes, deductive logic. Way better than empirical studies, if that's what you were looking for. You only need the assumption that demand curves in the labor market slope downward to deduce that taxes in that market cause deadweight losses, and the evidence that demand curves nearly always slope downward, not just in the labor market, is every transaction you have ever made and every transaction you have ever heard anyone talk about. There are empirical studies that confirm this, but they are irrelevant because you have access to much better evidence, and you should just dismiss the empirical studies that say otherwise. If controlled experiments showed this wrong, you should assume that the researchers are lying about their results, because that would genuinely be a more likely explanation than demand curves not actually sloping downward.
By the way, simple theories are more likely to be true, not less.
> Economic growth is probably only a matter of distribution.
There are exactly two reasons there can be an increase in economic growth and they are intensive and extensive growth. Either you make more efficient use of inputs or you have more inputs. Deadweight losses mean you make less efficient use of inputs.
In principle, the inefficiency caused by the taxes could be offset by the way they are spent if they were used to correct a market failure, which could increase economic efficiency or even increase the inputs. But market failures do not exist so in practice this does not happen and taxes always harm economic growth.
On the flip side, higher taxes also don't "lead to" any wage increases or economic growth. Given the massive waste and inefficiency in most government programs, very little of our taxes actually go to anything useful. Most of it goes towards war and to pay government contractors invoicing a $200 "military spec" screwdriver.
There is very convincing evidence that higher taxes and greater government spending do lead to long term economic growth. These days even the old fuddy duddies at the IMF have been forced to admit that higher taxes don't lower growth [1] and that many times the fiscal multipler is greater than 1 [2]. Certainly from 2008-2015, despite all the austerity hawks going on and on about inefficient government spending, actual evidence indicates the fiscal multipler was nearly 2!
[1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/inequality...
[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/01/03/an-am...
Also FYI: I'm not a representative or a supporter of the IMF. The fact that some of their people have said things which didn't turn out to be true doesn't concern me. In fact I'd probably expect that most bold predictions don't come true, especially on economic matters.
There aren’t even a preponderance of correlative data that shows a link between tax cuts and economic growth—except where economic growth is defined as a disproportionate increase in wealth concentration in ever smaller percentages of the population. The opposite has been shown—and quite conclusively—with decades of data (that tax cuts do not spur economic growth).
Moreover, seeing as how you’re dragging out the old government waste trope—its notable that you conveniently neglect to directly indict those on the receiving end of this “waste”. It cannot be solely the government’s fault that private corporate contractors happily pocket this waste. If waste is something you find especially onerous, shouldn’t we start by pointing the finger at the private companies who submit “wasteful” bids/invoices? If the government is paying too much and wasting public funds on contractors, doesn’t the fault lie with those submitting the bids/invoices? If there is nothing at all wrong with their bids, and we want to say it’s acceptable to bid any amount so long as the bidding is, say, fairly open to all comers, then how exactly can the government be guilty of “waste”? Seems every time the government is criticized for waste, it’s always a one-sided critique. Meanwhile, attempting to reign in this alleged waste with regulations, bid caps, stronger negotiating power, or some form of (gasp!) price control mechanism for public projects is rather uniformly met with charges of abuse of power, not playing by the rules, crippling free markets, or some other such nonsense. If there is waste, it starts with exorbitant bids/invoices for that $200 screwdriver. Seems to me the government is simply playing by the rules and paying what is demanded. There’d be a shit storm if they didn’t.
I can re-define economic growth to mean the size of my checking account. Income inequality has its own definition. You re-defining it to mean something its not doesn't mean much.
>Moreover, seeing as how you’re dragging out the old government waste trope
Its not a trope. Your personal ideology might or might not allow you to recognize this. I would recommend keeping an open mind.
>its notable that you conveniently neglect to directly indict those on the receiving end of this “waste”.
Once you create the means for someone to obtain wealth, you cannot fault the individual for maximizing their gains under a capitalist system. Look, if you don't believe that the government does a very poor job of allocating resources, then our disconnect is large enough that realistically no consensus can be reached. The motivations of the people lobbying for their piece of the government pie only exist in a context where (1) people are greedy and (2) the government has tons of money to spend. We can't do anything about #1, but maybe something about #2.
>The opposite has been shown—and quite conclusively—with decades of data (that tax cuts do not spur economic growth).
Nothing of the sort has been conclusively demonstrated, primarily because macro economics deals with aggregate human behavior - and humans are not automations. To every example of a low-tax low-growth economy is a counter example of high-tax still low-growth economy.
Despite decades of evidence demonstrating how government spending can produce enormous growth (see eg. the lil' ol' Great Depression, Europe after WW2, China -- really all of East Asia), despite conclusive recent research showing the post-GFC failure of austerity, ideologues will never revisit their outdated ideas. At this point you might as well admit that data and evidence doesn't matter at all and you aren't actually interested in the real world, just your own axiomatic fantasy.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/top-mrts-on-individual-in...
Its obvious who is living in a fantasy. I prefer to be skeptical of both sides. You are free to chose your own path. Goodbye!
It’s almost like dropping those top marginal rates did nothing to spur growth. I mean, it’s like one might actually have to entertain the idea that lowering taxation doesn’t actually lead to massive reinvestment of capital or wage and economic growth we’re promised every time it happens. Or perhaps—just maybe—economic growth isn’t something we can even realistically anticipate to obtain as a constant.
You do realize you’re stating exactly what I did in slightly different wording? Specifically that the only manner in which lowering taxes is proven as a cause of economic growth is when economic growth is defined as growing individual bank accounts of an increasingly smaller proportion of the population?
> Its not a trope. Your personal ideology might or might not allow you to recognize this. I would recommend keeping an open mind.
It most certainly is a trope. It is a motif, a recurrent theme used by many who criticize government spending. What exactly do you think a trope is? Suggesting one keep an open mind has nothing at all todo with recognizing a discursive trope.
> Once you create the means for someone to obtain wealth, you cannot fault the individual for maximizing their gains under a capitalist system.
Nothing in my comment faults individuals for maximizing their potential gains under a capitalist system. In fact, i don’t fault individuals because, under a capitalist system, one is required to operate in that way or starve to death. Recognizing and calling this out is not the same thing as blaming people for doing it.
> Look, if you don't believe that the government does a very poor job of allocating resources, then our disconnect is large enough that realistically no consensus can be reached.
You are rejecting the possibility of understanding and/or consensus based on your own ideological tenet, not any sort of evidence or discussion of facts. For you, “that the government does a very poor job of allocating resources” is an axiom, a political/ideological article of faith. This is in no way proven, yet you’re establishing an impasse by refusing to engage with the possibility that could be false.
> The motivations of the people lobbying for their piece of the government pie only exist in a context where (1) people are greedy and (2) the government has tons of money to spend. We can't do anything about #1, but maybe something about #2.
You do realize the people—who are allegedly not to be faulted for being “greedy” as a foundational concept of living in a capitalist system—are submitting bids/invoices for their piece of the pie voluntarily, right? If you do, on what sensible grounds can you criticize the government for paying up? The government is obeying the rules of this capitalist system. Even if it always was required to choose the cheapest bid, one could still allege that is waste. At which point, your ideology is blaming the government for “wasting” resources when there are no other options, and—with no evidence provided—concludes the answer is to starve the government of resources to use for the public good. You appear to believe you can eliminate waste not by targeting where the waste is procured (and where the rates are set) but by targeting who pays for it. That’s some pretty interesting mental gymnastics there.
> Nothing of the sort has been conclusively demonstrated, primarily because macro economics deals with aggregate human behavior - and humans are not automations. To every example of a low-tax low-growth economy is a counter example of high-tax still low-growth economy.
Yes, it most certainly has. Here’s 65 years of data to get you started: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/09/tax-cut...
A sibling commenter has provided other links in their posts.
Is there proof that raising taxes causes economic growth? No. That claim is not made. Is there proof that cutting taxes harms economic growth? No. What is shown is that cutting taxes does not spur economic growth, as those who advocate for that idea claim.
Where are the examples and serious data that show cutting taxes and starving the government of resources leads to high economic growth? You’re claiming it’s out there, so where is it? Where’s the low-tax, high-growth country? How long does that last? How much demonstrable growth is triggered as a result of each cut in taxes? How much of that growth is actually a product of the lower taxes?
Economic growth is nominally defined as increase in GDP. Hopefully we don't have to keep doing this dance.
>Nothing in my comment faults individuals for maximizing their potential gains under a capitalist system.
This is your comment - "If waste is something you find especially onerous, shouldn’t we start by pointing the finger at the private companies who submit “wasteful” bids/invoices?"
> If you do, on what sensible grounds can you criticize the government for paying up?
The sensible ground is the fact that allocation of government resources is influenced by lobbying and other special interests. Not to mention governments' own waste (e.g. government employees abusing government credit cards or the $2 million intern and about a million other things).
> At which point, your ideology is blaming the government for “wasting” resources when there are no other options, and—with no evidence provided—concludes the answer is to starve the government of resources to use for the public good.
That is hilarious. No other options but to buy more F35s?
>You appear to believe you can eliminate waste not by targeting where the waste is procured (and where the rates are set) but by targeting who pays for it. That’s some pretty interesting mental gymnastics there.
You are too naive if you think the system will magically reform itself or that people can be trained to be frugal with someone elses money when they have zero incentive to do so.
>You’re claiming it’s out there, so where is it?
Where did I claim that? You seem to be imagining an argument here.
> Economic growth is nominally defined as increase in GDP. Hopefully we don't have to keep doing this dance.
Right. This has been assumed as the definition we're targeting. Oddly, you've now twice selected two side comments I've made regarding what economic growth is not (for the purposes of this conversation), and rebutted/disputed them as if I was asserting that defined what economic growth is. Which is leading us, as I said, in circles. If you're not disagreeing, why are you selecting & rebutting as if you disagree?
> This is your comment - "If waste is something you find especially onerous, shouldn’t we start by pointing the finger at the private companies who submit “wasteful” bids/invoices?"
Right. Do I need to explain that individuals are not the same as private companies? Again, you've selected something as if there is disagreement here, but have either failed to explain that disagreement, or have failed to recognize you're speaking right past each point I make, assuming we disagree.
> The sensible ground is the fact that allocation of government resources is influenced by lobbying and other special interests. Not to mention governments' own waste (e.g. government employees abusing government credit cards or the $2 million intern and about a million other things).
Ah, yes. We definitely agree that lobbying and special interests influence government spending. So, because lobbying and special interest groups influence allocation of public resources, the government should just not pay when they receive an invoice? Moreover, to stick with your other examples of waste--which I'd would seriously love to be linked to some information on, again--your conclusion is the government should, again, just not pay? Should private companies who suffer employees abusing corporate credit cards just not pay their invoices? Should a $2M intern at a private corporation be a valid excuse for not paying a corporate bill?
Let me remind you that my question was specifically about sensible grounds for criticizing the government for paying invoices that were the result of winning bids that were voluntarily submitted by a private company. You have already asserted that those who submit the bids cannot be criticized for their inflated bids--even though it is those bids that result in what you consider to be wasteful spending. So, if no responsibility for waste lies with those who bid exorbitant rates on government contracts--after all, you say, they cannot be faulted for maximizing their gains under a capitalist system (a system the government also exists under!)--are you suggesting the government should just default on its payments to those private companies after accepting the bids? Are you suggesting the government should be more responsible for reducing waste by means of violating and subverting contracts?
> That is hilarious. No other options but to buy more F35s?
Boy, it is especially tiresome to have to spell out every little nuance of a statement the way you are cherry-picking them out of their contexts. The "no other options" was provided within the specific context of a possible requirement to choose the cheapest available bid in a bidding process. Thus, if the executive branch of government is, say, executing a law that, in their view, requires them to contract a private company in order to fulfill execution of a law duly passed by the legislature, and they are also required by law to choose the cheapest bid, there are no other options but to choose the cheapest bid.
You may not believe it, but I'm in wholehearted agreement that we need exactly 0 more F35s.
> You are too naive if you think the system will magically reform itself or that people can be trained to be frugal with someone elses money when they have zero incentive to do so.
It seems to me that you're reading an awful lot into my comments that I am not saying. I've suggested no possibility of magical self-reform of a broken system. I'd certainly suggest it is entirely possible to craft incentives that lead to people being trained to be frugal with resources that are not (fully, but partially) theirs. This is not naivety; it happens daily in the private sector. The actors there were certainly trained to steward corporate finances as frugally as possible--it seems perhaps they're missing some training on being mindful of participating in the stewardship of public finances as a citizen who partially owns those public finances, and that it's possible to be mindful even while acting as an agent of a private company (but again, you say, we cannot fault them for maximizing their gains at the public's expense).
> Where did I claim that? You seem to be imagining an argument here.
You claimed it right here[0]. It is your original claim to which I responded (which regrettably has led us on a bit of a trudge through the ideological tenets of your "waste" trope). You claimed there was evidence that, although weak, correlates cutting taxes with leading to higher wages or economic growth.
You say it is proven, but actually the study linked to by the article you mentioned from The Atlantic does not claim that. In the summary, it says: "The evidence does not suggest necessarily a relationship between tax policy with regard to the top tax rates and the size of the economic pie, but there may be a relationship to how the economic pie is sliced." And indeed the study's data does not prove any of this, so it is correct in not making that claim.
> If you do, on what sensible grounds can you criticize the government for paying up? The government is obeying the rules of this capitalist system.
The government also decided that the system would be this particular not very capitalist system, where it pays contractors for anything at all. That is what it ought to be criticized for.
> Even if it always was required to choose the cheapest bid, one could still allege that is waste. At which point, your ideology is blaming the government for “wasting” resources when there are no other options, and—with no evidence provided—concludes the answer is to starve the government of resources to use for the public good.
There is at least one other option: not having the government choose any bid at all, cheapest or not. And there is an even better option: not having a government in the first place.
> Is there proof that raising taxes causes economic growth? No. That claim is not made.
It has been made by dnomad: "There is very convincing evidence that higher taxes and greater government spending do lead to long term economic growth."
> What is shown is that cutting taxes does not spur economic growth, as those who advocate for that idea claim.
The study does not claim that it shows this, and if it did it would be wrong as it presents no evidence that this is the case.
My apologies. You're right, and I overstated. The article does, in fact, claim there may be a relationship between distribution and top tax rates, not that this relationship is proven.
> The government also decided that the system would be this particular not very capitalist system, where it pays contractors for anything at all. That is what it ought to be criticized for.
You're saying the government ought to be criticized for paying contractors anything at all? If so, why? What alternative (more? less?) capitalist system would it be free of criticism for, under which (presumably?) contractors are not paid anything at all?
> There is at least one other option: not having the government choose any bid at all, cheapest or not. And there is an even better option: not having a government in the first place.
Within the context of my comment there, the "no other option" was specifically anchored in a requirement to choose the lowest bid in a bidding process. Not choosing a bid was intentionally left out as it is not relevant for determining, in the context of paying a private company for work performed, particularly if the bid/invoice for that work is at what an average person might consider to be exorbitant rates, which party bears responsibility for "waste".
I'll leave it to you to explain how not having a government in the first place is an even better option, as that'd be interesting to hear a thorough argument for.
> It has been made by dnomad: "There is very convincing evidence that higher taxes and greater government spending do lead to long term economic growth."
Sure. dnomad and I don't appear to be in any strong disagreement here about what available evidence shows. I was being careful here to say there is no causal proof, though there is a preponderance of evidence that seems to suggest a possible relationship--be that a result of greater government spending spurring growth, or be that a strong suggestion that higher taxes does not hurt growth (as many who clamor for cutting taxes love to claim to score political points).
> The study does not claim that it shows this, and if it did it would be wrong as it presents no evidence that this is the case.
The article most certainly does. They state plainly: "But it does suggest that there is a lot more to an economy than taxes, and that slashing taxes is not a guaranteed way to accelerate economic growth."
[0]: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/09/tax-cut...
At some point the US finances are going to have to be stabilized by increasing taxes or perhaps spending not so much on military white elephants, but a non-progressive tax on spending overseas profits in the US is not the right way to do it.