> You would be collecting data from many sources in order to predict intent. This is why you need a centralized server.

Please explain, exactly, what other sources you would collect data from and how the central server would process it to determine if I want the lights on in the middle of the night.

IMHO, determining intent in this scenario is impossible without...

1. a mind-reading sensor, or...

2. an explicit user signal, such as a button-press or command.

The only realistic option is a user signal, and most of those options obviate a lot of these prediction ideas.

I think there's a lot less practical value to having a "central server" controlling everything than you seem to assume.