Love this. But am irked by how incomplete these models seem. "First Principles", "Probabilistic Thinking". Both seek to formalize causality in events.

Would speculate Buffet, Munger, et al don't actually bother much with cause and effect when entering large positions. They look at trends, price-action, cash flow and other mathematical micro-economic indicators. As well as a bias on the long term survivability of betting on America as a macro whole.

Michael Abrash, now Oculus Chief Scientist, has this great definition of "Zen Optimizations" in his famous graphics programming black books. There is the way a thing is advertised to work. There is the way you believe it to work. And then there is the way it actually works!