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Comment by gwbas1c | Hacker News Reader

The CEO is betting that people will sign up and forget they have a subscription.

No business survives when its runs on their customers stupidity.

That's how Planet Fitness sells gym memberships for $15/month. People are not good at predicting their future behavior. I don't like their gyms, but the business model can make money.

If movie pass owned the product they were selling they might have been able to pull it off.

And they also make sure people who do actually want to exercise are discouraged to go (lunk alarm, free food, etc)

This is significant - it's not just that gyms want memberships from people who forget they're paying or get locked in, it's that they want low occupancy.

If only 1% of your members want to use a squat rack at peak hours, you need gear and space for one rack per 100 members. But if 10% of your members are in squatting at noon on Saturday, you have 10x the capital and maintenance costs. And that's even before hardcore members create other costs like wanting unusual equipment most people won't use.

The obvious answer is pricing discrimination - people who work out more care enough to pay more. But it's hard for one gym to sell tiered access to facilities, plus the different groups often don't want to work out together. Hence, Planet Fitness.

It's hard for me to see what MoviePass could do in this vein. They have the same low-occupancy objective, but much less consumer optimism (who makes a New Year's Resolution to see more movies?) and much less ability to shape behavior; either you want to see a movie or you don't. The only option I can think of is horizontal integration - gyms target either high- or low-use consumers with open access, but MoviePass can more easily sell "x visits per month" for a range of X.

Nope, gym memberships work the way they do, because people feel like they should have a gym membership and cancelling one is considered a failure, plus actually going to a gym is not fun. I've had a membership for over a year and I haven't been once, but I would feel bad about cancelling. There is no expectation on anyone to own a cinema pass, and there is no reason not to use it if you have it. Right now the cinema is so expensive that I only go to see the biggest blockbusters - I might be interested in the smaller films but I can't justify paying to see a film I might not like. But with a movie pass? I'd go all the time.

There's more than one reason gym memberships work they way they do. Subscriptions, especially low cost ones, tend to run longer than if a person paid per usage. That's why there's so many subscription scams.

PF has the lunk alarm. Netflix's dvd service use to give preference to its less active customers on new releases. If MoviePass owned their product they could play that game as well. Like price discrimination, but modifying the value.

Another angle to look at it, I had netflix subscription for a long time, but I would very rarely use it but I also didn't want to cancel just incase I wanted to see something that might be interesting. Its an irrational way of thinking, because you can always sign up anytime you want, after closing your subscription. But I know quite a few people who do it.

Netflix needs very little commitment to use, just a few mouse clicks and you are in. With moviepass you actually need to go to a movie theter and hope the sits are not full and needs your physical commitment to use their service.

Like Gym membership, the first few months of every year people might jump into it but that not so much - but most likely will continue to pay for it.

I am not saying moviepass will be a success but there are some solid logic to their business model and it just might work, as long as they have the fund for the initial loss from new users.

> plus actually going to a gym is not fun

Going off-topic here but: you're doing it wrong. The gym is supposed to be fun; have you tried joining different classes or swimming? If you're not into working out solo (I'm usually not for example) there are usually group classes of all types available. Talk to them: they'll be happy to help you find something that you'll enjoy doing or alternatively just cancel the membership, if you find that embarrassing just don't mention it to anyone.

Nobody would ever go to the gym regularly if they didn't find it to be a genuinely fun activity.

I went to the gym regularly for for more than a decade. Throughout the years I did "tradition" workouts, classes, swimming, yoga, spinning, pilates, solo workouts, workouts with a friend, everything you could possibly think of I tried.

Still not fun and was never fun. Working out while watching TV even makes TV unenjoyable.

Even the activities I did as a kid weren't fun: soccer, dance, gymnastics (which I was good at).

I did it for the same reason I clean the dishes, because it's something I "should" do and it improvedy quality of life.

Have you tried weight lifting? I hate pretty much all rote cardio but I have been lifting for almost 10 years now. Since it is low reps, you don't get that progressive burning. Plus, it is cool to see progression as you get bigger and stronger over time.

Yes, of course I have. Weight lifting certainly falls under both "traditional workouts" and "everything you could possibly think of."

I can certainly appreciate some people get enjoyment out of physical activity, but just the same, some people find it miserable.

I understand that not every activity pleases everyone but in that case I'd just drop the subscription, not using it would make me feel far worse than not having it, I'd say. I certainly couldn't imagine myself setting foot in the gym if, like you, I didn't enjoy it.

There's actually an interesting episode of the Recode Media podcast where he talks about their business model. There's an element of 'the gym model' but they also plan on leveraging MoviePass as an advertising/promotional tool. i.e., customers are already paying to watch movies and they want to maximise how much they use the service, so MoviePass promotes more obscure/indie movies that may be of interest.

I’ve only seen like one movie this month so very possible. When I signed up I watched a movie a day until there was nothing else. I bet most people will be the same. Moviepass will probably have to get people into year plans only so there’s no subscribing just to May/June/July for the big blockbusters.

But yeah it’s pretty dumb for that to be their only game plan. They could pivot and license their tech out to chains to run their own programs - especially smaller chains.

> I bet most people will be the same.

Since it's now only good for once a week, they will not.

The "unlimited" plan came back so you're not limited to one a week.

Gyms?

That was my first thought too.

"Most businesses would close if their customers never showed up. An empty restaurant is a disaster. An empty store means bankruptcy. At a gym, emptiness equals success.

Today on the show, the mind games that gyms play with you. From design to pricing to free bagels, gyms want to be a product that everyone buys, but no one actually uses."

From Planet Money: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/12/17/371463435/epis...

MoviePass should give out Book of the Week to discourage customers...

Still, the NPR story mentions 15$/month Gym! in Manhattan! And its a huge place that can hold 300 people.

Americans are crazy...

Gyms rely on their clients optimism to sign up, but profit on their lack of commitment, which seems to be what MoviePass is banking on. Early adopters tend to be the most vocal and the most intent on extracting value, so I can see that if they hit a certain level of users, there's a chance it could be as profitable as a gym.

The question comes down to one of runway, and it's tough to tell if the CEO is being truthful about future investment.

It seems risky but I'm curious to see if I should give it a try now vs. waiting until they get more "creative" with their plans.

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